Covid 11/24/21

Covid19mathblog.com

Data delve today. Besides vaccines the fatality rates SHOULD get better as the medical complex learns better ways to treat/respond to covid. In addition those who passed away diminishes the unhealthy pool given majority of past deaths in poor health – all this should reduce fatality rates.

Comparing week 47 30 day moving average fatality rate this year vs last year does indicate a reduction in fatality rate on a country view – clearly shows a vaccination level of 60% has dropped covid fatalities between 50-87% – with a decent amount 70%. (lower than the vaccines studies but still good) This is a very pro-vaccine chart – however it does show a diminishing return of vaccination level. Vaccinating beyond 60% does not give you much improvement. For a strange reason there is a dip in fatality improvement after 73% vaccinated per capita.

The perplexing anomaly is the US. Are we refusing to get better? Are we reporting deaths differently? On a state level fatality has gotten worse in many states. There is a vaccination rate relationship with fatality rate improvement. Could it be the deaths of the unvaccinated are being skewed as covid whereas the vaccinated are not being classified as covid? As noted above all the reasons beyond vaccines SHOULD improve fatality rate – but we are seriously getting worse results! If we hold this at face value this would certainly indicate more vaccination is needed but at the same time we need to review our medical treatment.

US weekly deaths have been above the “normal” range and this summer was even worse than last year – yet we had the vaccine this year!

Added a column for the 30 day MA fatality rate next to ongoing fatality rate. IF the number is higher this indicates fatality rate is getting worse – many countries observing this.

Placed Russia into the Europe category below – clearly a big surge coming as it gets cold.

US front confirmations showing up in the cold regions as expected.

An 84% vaccinated county the second highest confirmation per capita county over the last seven days

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