Covid19mathblog.com
Well that was quick Omicron in USA confirmed – https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/omicron-variant-found-california-rcna6909
“The omicron variant of the coronavirus has been detected in California, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Wednesday.
The CDC issued a statement that the California and San Francisco Departments of Public Health confirmed the case in a traveler who returned from South Africa on November 22.
"The individual, who was fully vaccinated and had mild symptoms that are improving, is self-quarantining and has been since testing positive," the statement read.”
Looks to be in play earlier – https://time.com/6124632/omicron-variant-spread/
“The Netherlands’ RIVM health institute found omicron in samples dating from Nov. 19 and 23. The World Health Organization said South Africa first reported the variant to the U.N. health agency on Nov. 24. Meanwhile, Japan and France reported their first cases of the new variant that has forced the world once again to pinball between hopes of returning to normal and fears that the worst is yet to come.”
A key theme is most are already vaccinated – https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/two-doctors-in-israel-diagnosed-with-omicron-covid-variant-1.10428042
“The new coronavirus variant, omicron, has been detected in two Israeli doctors, one of whom had returned from a conference in London in the past week, a spokesperson for Sheba Medical Center near Tel Aviv confirmed on Tuesday.
The two doctors had received three doses of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine, and so far have shown mild COVID-19 symptoms, the hospital said.”
“The physician who had returned from Britain had probably infected his colleague, it said.
Two more people have been identified in Israel as carrying the new variant, health officials have confirmed, one of them a tourist from Malawi who had received the AstraZeneca vaccine.”
Before we blame it on the unvaccinated and force all to have vaccine – lets really examine the risk/reward – everyone has a unique risk/reward profile. The decision SHOULD be done with a consult with your doctor who should know about your health and lifestyle. In general the young are not impacted with covid compared to the elder. Yet the impact of the vaccine could be much greater for the youth. Why impose them? https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/uk-sees-44-increase-in-child-deaths-after-jab-rollout-for-young-teens-data-shows/?s=09
“U.K. reports on child deaths from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that, in the weeks since the COVID shot has been administered to children between ages 12 and 15, recorded deaths have risen by 44 percent above the 2015-2019 average for the same time period.
According to the ONS’ “five-year average weekly deaths by sex and age group” figures between 2015 and 2019 among children ages 10-14, there were 41 deaths recorded from week 38 (late September) to week 45 (early November). Within the same time period, the weekly figures recorded for the year 2021 show that 59 children died, representing a 43.9 percent rise in deaths over the five-year average.”
It’s a small number but the increase is real and why have the guilt of this on your hands as a parent. Letting fate play out that your child gets covid AND be sick enough to die is much less certain than knowingly injecting your child with a vaccine with a potential adverse reaction knowing you made the decision vs. fate.
Vaccine has failed in all accounts to maintain spread. Post treatment seems like a good allocation of resources – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10252377/Drug-cocktail-saviour-New-Covid-treatment-FOUR-TIMES-effective.html
“A study found that the ‘Spidex’ drug cocktail reduced intensive care admissions
The mix of dexamethasone and spironolactone could be used to fight Omicron
The findings of Sir Christopher Edwards were published in the Frontiers in Endocrinology medical journal”
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/30/health/molnupiravir-pill-covid-fda-advisers/index.html
“Advisers to the US Food and Drug Administration voted 13-10 Tuesday to recommend emergency use authorization of a pill made by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics to help treat Covid-19.
Members of the FDA’s Antimicrobial Drugs Advisory Committee were split in their vote to recommend molnupiravir, which can reduce the relative risk someone will progress to severe disease or death by about 30%. The absolute reduction in risk of severe disease or death was 3% — 9.7% of people who took placebo died, compared to 6.8% of those given molnupiravir.”
The verdict for Sweden approach is still out. We have only gone through 1 winter! Currently the Sweden approach perhaps was initially too abrupt – causing more initial deaths than need be as treatment and vaccines came out over the next year. However it could be that the end game is equivalent. Being quarantined and not seeing anyone for 1 year worth that 1 year? The key thing is to pick a good benchmark – age, climate, and population density, culture – the best screen I have come up with is Latvia, Finland, and Norway. It is expected Latvia be higher due to population density and economic wellbeing. Norway should be better given younger and less density.
So far Finland and Norway has kept in check deaths and confirmations – but we are now seeing a surge in Norway and Finland. What should be the outcome of this? In theory the vaccine and treatment plan SHOULD keep the death and confirmation per capita down. Time will tell.
Russia continues to lead in deaths. Winter is here in the US – leading in confirmation.
Good new US is much less in both confirmations and deaths vs. last year – as expected given the amount of vaccines with a strong focus on the elderly.
TX and FL dropping out of the top states in deaths and confirmations….hmmm temp?
Last 7 days a very low vaccinated county is the top spreader but right below that we have 63.5% vaccinated county in third place. Note the northerly counties.
Last 30 day state view still no value in reducing spread via vaccination rates…..Temperature a much better indicator.
