Covid19mathblog.com

There are certainly exaggerated claims on both sides of the aisle. The recent one I came across is the definition of antivaxxer on webster dictionary and the concern of the definition change- https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-034481134066 . Language is an interesting concept – hence I prefer numbers. Word definitions do change and for a long time may not be consistent with what is shown in a dictionary. In the context of antivaxxer even though this was used way back in 2018 as noted from wayback machine – https://web.archive.org/web/20181125060933/https:/www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anti-vaxxer I am not sure if it really was absorbed into society as defined in the dictionary. There is history to this as common words today we use are not in the same context – such as naughty – historically defined as immoral and evil – I don’t think we mean that when we say our kids/pets have been naughty. Meat used to mean any solid food – now its held in high regards as just animal flesh so much so there are lawsuits and laws being developed to argue against the use of meat for plant based food. https://ideas.ted.com/20-words-that-once-meant-something-very-different/

I would contend the context of antivaxxer in society view is one who is an extremist so much so they are against vaccines including those who have shown a decade plus of efficacy. To question a vaccine that just came on the market even though billions have taken it so far is not as extreme in my perspective. The billions taking it implies that a large group of followers cannot be wrong. In fact it will likely cause more of a coverup if there is something wrong. The vaccine itself may be fine, but did you consider the manufacturing process and the distribution chain and how rushed that got in supply chain constrained world. The odds of issues is a reasonable assumption. You can be right and be wrong too – perhaps for 99% of people it is great. For the <1% who perhaps have a history of zoster or issue with vascular – these people SHOULD consult a doctor! (https://academic.oup.com/rheumatology/article/60/SI/SI90/6225015?s=09 – https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.10712?s=09 )

We do not have all the answers no matter how advance you think science is now – we still have drug recalls after years of circulation. They even recall things that are used normally such as the recent jury order on J&J to pay $417 million in Johnsons Baby Powder and talcum powder case.

“Research now shows that use of talcum powder in the genital area can lead to development of ovarian cancer in women. In other cases, consumers have been diagnosed with mesothelioma cancer. Johnson & Johnson is facing more than 6,550 lawsuits and though a few have gone to trial with judgements reaching into the $ millions, most lawsuits have not been settled.”

In the current definition of webster perhaps I am an anti-vaxxer – https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anti-vaxxer – but I took the vaccine so am I a hypocritical anti-vaxxer? – but I weighed the risk/reward for myself and I took it before regulations – I think people should weigh their individual lifestyle and discuss the issues with their doctor – we cant just force people to do things to their body – particularly when now proven not to reduce transmission significantly nor help reduce hospitalizations and deaths significantly for those healthy. The healthy part is questionable that’s why you consult with a doctor! No open minded well versed person in vaccine can say that the current vaccine offers 100% safety for all – this is just not true! We need empathy and a program to help the minority that end up with a bad reaction to the vaccine. We need to minimize those that would get a bad reaction. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c41nlvy5x85o

“A woman has described how she had to learn how to talk again after she said she was left partially-paralysed due to the side effects of her Covid-19 vaccine.

Kerry Hurt, from Rotherham, suffered a stroke after undergoing surgery for a blood clot two weeks after having the AstraZeneca jab.

Mrs Hurt said it had "devastated" her life but still encouraged people to have the vaccine if they wanted it.

A government spokesperson said severe side effects were "extremely rare" and affected 1 in 100,000 people, external having first doses.”

“"We both did it for the right reasons, we’re not anti-vaccines by any means," Mr Hurt said.

Blood clots from vaccines are estimated to occur with 1 in 100,000 people over the age of 40 or those with underlying medical conditions.

For people aged under 40, the risk increases to 1 in 50,000 people.”

“The University of Oxford said the risk of having a blood clot was greater from catching Covid-19 , externalwhen compared with having a first vaccine dose.”

“Mrs Hurt said she had been trying to claim compensation from the Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme (VDPS).

She said despite her life being affected, claiming was difficult and full of "red tape", having not been updated since 1979.

"I had the vaccine thinking I was doing the right thing," she said.”

So perhaps many will say well I didn’t take the AstraZeneca – but like I said perhaps the issue isn’t the vaccine but the manufacturing and distribution – much is still unknown as noted in the article above – and no one wants to be that <1% whether its an impact from covid or vaccination.

Speaking of history we can learn from great advice back in 1918 by keeping healthy – focus on ventilation and staying away from the crowds if you are so concern about spreading and obtaining covid.

Unfortunately it may take a long time to really understand the facts – not sure why not show all the documents – not showing likely lead to more antivaxxers – https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/fda-doubles-down-asks-federal-judge?s=09

“The Court ordered the parties to submit briefs in support of their respective positions by December 6, 2021. The FDA’s brief, incredibly, doubles down. It now effectively asks to have until at least 2096 to produce the Pfizer documents. Not a typo. A total of at least 75 years.”

Another win for Pfizer – new study – potential analogy the car you bought doesn’t really drive well but since you are at the dealership we have an addon for just additional more which you don’t have to pay because the govt will cover it will solve the issue so please take it – https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-study-finds-2-pfizer-shots-fail-to-neutralize-omicron-but-booster-effective/

“People who were vaccinated with Pfizer shots six months ago or more have “almost no neutralizing ability” against the Omicron variant, while those who received boosters are in reasonably good shape, an Israeli study has found.

Prof. Gili Regev Yochay of Sheba Medical Center said that her research is “very worrisome” due to its implications for people who have had just two shots and had more than a half-year pass since their most recent vaccination — which applies to many of the world’s Pfizer vaccinees. However, it gives cause for “optimism” regarding the power of boosters to fight Omicron, albeit less effectively than they fight Delta.”

What will be the definition of an anti-booster? https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anti-booster

We are dying above the avg 2014-2019 numbers since the beginning of 2020 – we have not improved even though we have vaccinated so many in the US – over 80%+ in the 65+ category. Its time to call an audible – we need a campaign on health, ventilation, and distribution of vitamin D in hot spots.

Still showing on a state level basis more vaccinated more confirmation for the last 30 days – Temp is a way better influencer on transmission R2=0.30

Fatality rate is improved with vaccination rate R2=0.29. Temp are a poor indicator of death.

County level basis no clear indication vaccination helps death nor spread. Does show improvement for fatality rate.

Good news in general fatality rate improving across the world (30 day MA Death/Confirmed < fatality rate)

Europe perhaps past peak? The weather is starting to warm up there.

Covid is a function of Temp – northern states leading

On a 7 day basis county vaccination vs confirmation do not show a clear bifurcation to support vaccines helping with transmission.