Covid 12/27/21 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

My latest thoughts on the vaccine given its failure to be like a traditional vaccine – immunization and reduction of spread – BUT shows signs of reducing hospitalization/immunity – the benchmark of the vaccine should not be unvaccinated but perhaps a cold virus? Would injecting people with a simple cold virus therefore priming the immune system be as potentially beneficial. Clearly injecting something beyond saline/water into the body is stimulating the immune system. The very small probability of side effects of the Covid injection has been from reactivating zoster virus to myocarditis to potentially death. Perhaps a simple cold virus injection would show the same benefit without the concern of some unique creation and prime the immune system for 6 months as effectively as the vaccine?

This is just ponder – no expertise in this area – but much expertise in analyzing data and the data points to the above as potential outcome. IF immunization was to happen it’s a direct function of the vaccine. IF its not then what is the current vaccine mechanically/chemically doing in the body but strengthening the immune system to prevent death and hospitalization. There are several ways to strengthen the immune system that we do know – including being infected previously with a cold – taking vitamins – being healthy etc… COULD the vaccine be equal or as effective as those options? I do hope it is beyond just getting a common cold – but no one has confirmed the extent. How much more effective is the current vaccine relative to other immune strengthening options? Need a study of four categories – Vaccine, Cold Virus, Therapeutics for Immune System (Vitamin D, C etc…), Placebo (Saline/Water).

Personal experience – so yes the omicron went into my household before and during Christmas. I had my wife and 3/5 kids at home. Given my previous infection I was not impacted significantly – I did one day feel tired but never to a point of a fever like feeling – it was likely because I am trying to do many things and wear many hats. As with many things in life you really cant say something is bad or good until some time passes – it was good I was infected in the summer else the house would probably have fallen. It started with my VACCINATED college son with slight asthma as noted in previous blog – then wife (unvax) also not interested in most of the treatment options– then my next youngest college son (unvax) then finally my high school daughter (unvax). It was clearly beyond a typical common cold for all except my youngest (16)– I would say its closer to a flu for sure given the weakness observed and the need to sleep. No one really showed any significant difference other than my wife who seems tired longer but she is older and not taking as much prophylactic. The impact so far less on the daughter who claims she is fully recovered now – but she got on HCQ Zinc much earlier in the phase and started showing symptoms much later. Sore throat is a consistent theme. I had the treatment plan all lined up from Quercetin, HCQ, lactoferrin, Benadryl, vitamin D, Zinc, betadine nasal spray, Crest mouthwash 0.07% cetypyridinium chloride, black cumin seed, and eventually IVM. The game plan was simple reduce viral load! Give the body the best chance possible. Windows open making use of the mild winter. The timeline of sickness seems to be consistent 4-5 days. As of today the first college son is back to normal – youngest daughter all good. The wife is still tired. The other son seems to be all good. The daughter continues to show the least amount of symptoms and is also on ivermectin – never lost taste or smell vs. the others.

The adventures of ivermectin: As noted previously ivermectin was approved for me in the summer from insurance and cost $5. This time the IVM was not approved from the insurance company even though with the same doctor. I had to call several pharmacy – all the CVS is out. Several Walgreens out – I finally called the 24 hour Walgreen (likely hub) that I got it from last time and they had it. However they noted the insurance denied it and it would be $275. There was an online coupon from goodrx that lowered the price to $135. I went ahead and went with that. Per Christmas I picked it up past 24hours – and then was rejected from the coupon as arrived due to system issue but could wait 24 hour and perhaps it will work again. Of course the pharmacist tells me he is not forcing me to buy it at $275 but we do know IF IVM was to be effective it had to be early. I went ahead and bought it for $275 in hopes of getting a refund later. Well just this morning Walgreens was able to process it and now its $87! – amazing. Another instance of a setback ends up as a positive – but it does require my time to make calls and drive to and from…..my time is worth more than this now given all the hats I wear including researching Covid for the team!

The adventures of TEST – you cant get them unless you had some ahead of time which we did -but all out now everywhere – see testing article below.

Many attempted to argue my interpretation of using county level vaccination rate even within states vs transmission rate (cases/per capita) over the last 7 days or 30 days as proof that vaccine status does not matter early on the summer was not good enough. Well here is the study focused on the issue https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext?s=09

Conclusion:

Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. Host–virus interactions early in infection may shape the entire viral trajectory.

Better late than never – https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-risk-of-vaccinated-covid-transmission-is-not-low/?s=09

“It is vital that people responsible for the health of unvaccinated children, as well as people at high risk of infection, understand this: COVID vaccines make it less likely you’ll get sick and especially unlikely you’ll get very sick. But vaccinated people—whether they have symptoms or not—are contracting and spreading the virus in nontrivial numbers.”

Denying reality will catch up….

Another denial was there was a big seasonality component – it was known in the scientific community. Here is the wastewater study in August 2020 which was also noted on this blog highlighting temperature dependency in water and how long it can survive. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00605-2?s=09

“Temperature is an important variable for survival of virions in general and SARS-CoVs in particular46,60,61. Longer retention of SARS-CoVs infectivity has been observed at lower temperatures (for example, 14 days at 4 °C versus two days at 25 °C in wastewater)61. This implies that in cold seasons and temperate climate zones, the environmental survival of SARS-CoV-2 may be increased. Temperatures above 56 °C reliably inactivate SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 after 90 minutes and 30 minutes, respectively, most likely due to denaturation of proteins and lipid bilayers46,62,63.”

Focusing on covid data from cases, deaths, hospitalization without ANY weather normalization resulted in wrong conclusions including the efficacy of vaccines!

In hindsight and appropriate evaluation of the data in real time showed – too much focus was done on the vaccine which left out other actions just as important from testing availability and use to health initiatives to early treatment initiatives for hotspots e.g. vitamin D give away, ventilation guidelines, etc…

Remember the 90% efficacy – well its barely above 50% with Omicron – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v2?s=09

“we found a VE against the Omicron variant of 55.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.5 to 73.7%) and 36.7% (95% CI: 69.9 to 76.4%) for the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines, respectively, in the first month after primary vaccination. However, the VE is significantly lower than that against Delta infection and declines rapidly over just a few months. The VE is re-established upon revaccination with the BNT162b2 vaccine (54.6%, 95% CI: 30.4 to 70.4%).”

Another point to the obvious which is denied – perhaps cognitive dissonance – HEALTH REALLY MATTERS AND WHAT YOU EAT MATTERS TO YOUR HEALTH – https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gut-reactions-microbes-in-the-digestive-tract-influence-covid-severity/?s=09

“the gut is not merely a passive target for the virus. Evidence suggests it is also a player in determining the severity of COVID-19. A burst of research over the past decade has shown that the tiny denizens of the digestive tract—the gut microbiota—play a vital role in protecting the body from pathogens and in regulating immune responses to infections, and that seems to be the case for COVID.”

“There isn’t yet proof of a direct relationship between COVID severity and gut dysbiosis, but evidence is mounting.”

FDA approves Pfizer pill – wish they would have run a study including the FLCC treatment plan, placebo, and the pill to really see the efficacy…. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-authorizes-first-covid-pill-pfizer-emergency-use-rcna8760

“The treatment needs to be taken early to be effective — within five days of first symptoms, according to the FDA.”

Similar to HCQ and IVM

Found the cost the US is purchasing it at – $530 per patient! We have one of the worst purchasing negotiators in the world? https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/12/23/pfizers-new-antiviral-drug-could-transform-the-pandemic-but-challenges-still-lie-ahead/?sh=29a66466c49c

“The US is purchasing the drug at a cost of $530 per patient, a cost significantly out of reach for poorer countries. Based on comparable drugs manufactured in India, I estimate that the true cost should be more like $25 – $30 per patient.”

Once again my hypothesis that the variants of concern is not driven by vaccination status but likely poor hygiene areas somewhat supported by the study noting how unique Omicron is and perhaps the source is a mouse! https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2021/12/15/2021.12.14.472632.full.pdf

“our results suggest that the progenitor of Omicron jumped from humans to mice, rapidly accumulated mutations conducive to infecting that host, then jumped back into humans, indicating an inter-species evolutionary trajectory for the Omicron outbreak. “

A very interesting study done on youth showing youth who get Covid actually produces an immunity which is superior to vaccines. Vaccination of youth with current vaccine may not be as beneficial as youth obtaining natural immunity which potentially supports them for the rest of their lives. Youth vaccinated could be needing routing vaccination for the rest of their lives? – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-01089-8?s=09#about-the-journal

“we showed that children display a characteristically robust and sustained adaptive immune response against SARS-CoV-2 with substantial cross-reactivity against other hCoVs. This is likely to contribute to the relative clinical protection in this age group but these findings may also provide insight into the characteristic immunopathology that may develop. Furthermore, they will help to guide the introduction and interpretation of vaccine deployment in the pediatric population.”

Clearly testing is more crucial than the vaccine at this point when you believe in endemics vs. pandemic. It is unfortunate test are so scarce in the US and so much more expensive than in Europe $15 vs $1. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/12/the-biden-administration-rejected-an-october-proposal-for-free-rapid-tests-for-the-holidays

““It’s undeniable that [the administration] took a vaccine-only approach,” said Dr. Michael Mina, a vocal advocate for rapid testing who attended the October White House meeting. The U.S. government “didn’t support the notion of testing as a proper mitigation tool.””

“president’s announcement on Tuesday struck many experts as “an exemplar of too little, too late,” as Dr. Eric Topol, director and founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California, put it in a Substack post on Tuesday. Topol called the plan to make 500 million free rapid tests available sometime next year “totally inadequate,” writing, “We need several billion of these, and have needed them for over a year to help prevent spread, as validated and relied upon in many countries throughout the world.””

Might not be able to get a test but perhaps we can get the $530 treatment via Pfizer pill next year!

UK is now over 17% confirmed per capita