Covid19mathblog.com

Now we have two December data points to compare – we can see how the vaccines worked given the seasonal nature of coronaviruses and the near zero last Dec vs. this Dec.

The chart below shows the countries change comparing stats from Dec 20 vs Dec 21 – Fatality Rate (Death/Confirmed) and Transmission Rate (Confirmed / Capita). Unfortunately the vaccine is not a clear winner in each category. As expected treatment of covid should have improved in a year so you can see very low vaccination rate countries improved their fatality rates e.g. Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Bangladesh. Disappointing there are several countries fatality rates that have gotten worse than last year even with higher vaccination rates e.g. Brazil, Turkey, Cuba, Malaysia – perhaps a chart with the dominant vaccine could be helpful (need data).

Transmission rate as noted several times before via US county data is independent of vaccination status. Unlike the chart above which shows some separation in terms of vaccination level – transmission rate is very uniformed regardless of vaccination levels. Malta the highest vaccinated country also presented one of the worse change in transmission rate – an increase of transmission by 222%! Countries with very low vaccination rate was able to reduce transmission rate by almost 100% e.g. Pakistan, Indonesia, India – BTW all dispensing Ivermectin.

Conclusion – vaccines were not the panacea they were marketed as. To continue mandates for all given the failure of the vaccine to lead strong and obvious value is not rationale. Overall there is a good value for vaccines for those that are in the elder and comorbidity category as the improvement in hospitalization and deaths seems obvious even if less than what was marketed. The shot would boost your immune system and get it primed for a potential infection. However its is also clear with Omicron that those who have had previous infection the need for the vaccine is minimal given it could just be 100% risk with no reward at least for 1 year after infection. The message for getting healthy cannot be more stressed. A campaign similar to reducing smoking should be done for process foods. Advertisement for unhealthy food should be eliminated similar to reducing smoking commercials. Schools and public events need to promote a wellness push. The taxing of the health system blamed on unvaccinated when you look at the data it is still unhealthy patients for the largess – perhaps also unvaccinated. The largest killer is still heart and cancer both directly tied to health. Transmission reduction strategy could be ivermectin. No study has been done in IVM for prevention of transmission – this needs to be done. This involves taking IVM before prior infection and placing candidate in a situation with live covid such as an unventilated room. With the treatment pill option a healthy candidate should have minimize fatal risk but could give large value for society – who could/would fund this study? We still should have ventilation guidelines and CO2 detectors in all public buildings.

Lots of changes occurring at the CDC level – big change is the end of the PCR for letting one go back to life – as noted several times before the PCR is a diagnostic tool not and infectious tool. No idea why it took them this long to realize this! – https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=81952698&cid=social_twitter_abcn#81984630

“The newly updated CDC guidelines don’t require testing at the end of isolation because PCR tests can stay positive for up to 12 weeks, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told "Good Morning America" Wednesday.”

CDC pushing out new assays for identification so can now clearly identity the difference between Covid and the Flu – this likely caused the lack of Flu reporting last year. https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html?s=09

“CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season.”

Those noting the data concerns “with and from” issue of Covid was considered an extremist/antivax crowd. Perhaps this concern can become mainstream just like the lab leak theory now that Dr. Fauci has also noted the concern – only two years to come to realize data inconsistency….https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1476710278096166917

“"If you look at the children that are hospitalized, many of them are hospitalized with Covid, as opposed to because of Covid."”

“"And what we mean by that: If a child goes into the hospital, they automatically get tested for COVID and they get counted as a COVID-hospitalized individual, when, in fact, they may go in for a broken leg or appendicitis or something like that. So it’s over counting the number of children who are, quote, hospitalized with COVID as opposed to because of COVID," said Fauci.”

US leading deaths and confirmations

Australia is surging in confirmation and its summer time for them. So far deaths have not surged. However this does point out to their isolation policy not that effective in the longterm. The positive outcome could be the are able to see the less fatal variant and have better treatment programs now than last year.

NY and PA lead confirmation and deaths respectively.

There is a surge in FL but it is still below last year level. They are approaching the Princess Diamond level of confirmation per capita – now at 19%. Deaths are declining in FL

NY is way above last year’s confirmation level.

CA is doing much better than last year.

TX is also better than last year

VT is not better than last year with more deaths and more confirmation yet very vaccinated.

Surge still more focused in the colder regions when viewed on a per capita basis.

Happy New Year! We stole the ”MATH” saying from Andrew Yang – Make America Think Harder – as we highly support this. This blog we present the data – the articles are linked – its your duty to challenge yourself to think about what it means. I wish the following year brings out the best in you.