Covid19mathblog.com

The response to Omicron perhaps another knee jerk reaction with the concept one has to do something? Travel ban for S. Africa and corresponding countries – https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/11/26/a-proclamation-on-suspension-of-entry-as-immigrants-and-nonimmigrants-of-certain-additional-persons-who-pose-a-risk-of-transmitting-coronavirus-disease-2019/

“Given the recommendation of the CDC, working in close coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, described above, I have determined that it is in the interests of the United States to take action to suspend and restrict the entry into the United States, as immigrants and nonimmigrants, of noncitizens of the United States (“noncitizens”) who were physically present within the Republic of Botswana, the Kingdom of Eswatini, the Kingdom of Lesotho, the Republic of Malawi, the Republic of Mozambique, the Republic of Namibia, the Republic of South Africa, and the Republic of Zimbabwe during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.”

Lets look at the data – so far Omicron has been identified in 38 countries https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10274619/WHO-says-no-one-died-Omicron-Covid-variant.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline&s=09 but the map supplied is more like 30 countries – also status of banned not necessarily right perhaps for the UK?

IF we look at those countries AND also believe the R value for Omicron to be high then in theory the confirmations should be high in those countries or we have to conclude they don’t test enough and was just lucky to find the variant and let the world know.

Below shows the 7 day moving average of confirmation per capita – so you get a sense of transmission rate per population. Amazingly the African countries are really low on the map yet these European countries are not banned from travel? Once again are the African countries not testing enough but just enough to find the variant which in theory could be the highest transmitting variant – hmmm one of those things are not adding up…..Not advocating for travel bans just some consistency and logic – likely the cat is out of the bag and we need to move on to identify solutions to mitigate transmission e.g. ventilation, get healthy, Of course many will think the answer is vaccinate – but once again as noted by both CEO of the big two vaccine producers the current vaccines will not work for Omicron. https://www.ft.com/content/27def1b9-b9c8-47a5-8e06-72e432e0838f

https://www.timesofisrael.com/pfizer-ceo-were-working-on-covid-vaccine-against-omicron/

Mask do help to a degree – do you think its possible to say individual assessment on vaccine AND say that mask may help too and once again should be individual and locational choice – for many that seems like an oxymoron for some reason….https://www.mpg.de/17916867/coronavirus-masks-risk-protection?s=09

Scary report notes infection in few minutes! Looks like they did not assessed that on various health level of individual and natural immunity/vax status but on a viral load basis. As noted they are likely being too conservative on their infection level but clearly if you are immune compromised take heed to wear a mask – it will help to a degree.

“The Göttingen team was surprised at how great the risk of infection with the coronavirus is. "We would not have thought that at a distance of several metres it would take so little time for the infectious dose to be absorbed from the breath of a virus carrier," says Eberhard Bodenschatz, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organisation. At this distance, the breathing air has already spread in a cone shape in the air; the infectious particles are correspondingly diluted. In addition, the particularly large and thus virus-rich particles fall to the ground after only a short distance through the air. "In our study we found that the risk of infection without wearing masks is enormously high after only a few minutes, even at a distance of three metres, if the infected persons have the high viral load of the delta variant of the Sars-CoV-2 virus," says Eberhard Bodenschatz. And such encounters are unavoidable in schools, restaurants, clubs or even outdoors.”

“The Göttingen study confirms that FFP2 or KN95 masks are particularly effective in filtering infectious particles from the air breathed – especially if they are as tightly sealed as possible at the face. If both the infected and the non-infected person wear well-fitting FFP2 masks, the maximum risk of infection after 20 minutes is hardly more than one per thousand, even at the shortest distance. If their masks fit poorly, the probability of infection increases to about four percent. If both wear well-fitting medical masks, the virus is likely to be transmitted within 20 minutes with a maximum probability of ten percent. The study also confirms the intuitive assumption that for effective protection against infection, in particular the infected person should wear a mask that filters as well as possible and fits tightly to the face.”

“The infection probabilities determined by the Max Planck team indicate the upper limit of the risk in each case. "In daily life, the actual probability of infection is certainly 10 to 100 times smaller,"”

Society is rationale overall regardless of what you read in media and the vitriol to the unvaccinated. The impact of covid was to the elderly and they responded by getting vaccinated – they clearly see the risk/reward value proposition. Vaccination rate for those 65+well over 80% – I am sure there will always be some doctor consults which would indicate that one should not get the vaccine given known health issues. Mandates cause an unnecessary adversarial impact.

What is interesting/concerning is the reporting of deaths and efficacy of the vaccine. IF we know 80+% of the 65+ are fully vaccinated – should we not see a reduction in covid deaths relative to last year – or do we say all of those deaths are just the unvaccinated?

Interesting to deduce all the heart issues is related to stress? Perhaps something that has been known to cause heart issues Vaccines & Covid? https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/post-pandemic-stress-disorder-heart-conditions-covid-london-physicians-b969436.html?s=09

“Up to 300,000 people in the UK are facing heart-related illnesses due to post-pandemic stress disorder (PPSD), two London physicians have warned.”

“Meanwhile, Tahir Hussain, a senior vascular surgeon at Northwick Park Hospital in Harrow, said he has seen a significant rise in cases where he works.

He said: “I’ve seen a big increase in thrombotic-related vascular conditions in my practice. Far younger patients are being admitted and requiring surgical and medical intervention than prior to the pandemic.

“I believe many of these cases are a direct result of the increased stress and anxiety levels caused from the effects of PPSD.

“We also have evidence that some patients have died at home from conditions such as pulmonary embolism and myocardial infarction. I believe this is related to many people self-isolating at home with no contact with the outside world and dying without getting the help they needed.””

What would one do if we have no unvaccinated to blame – IF the data really proved that the unvaccinated is causing the transmission and deaths then the solution is so easy – vaccinate. There is no statistical evidence to prove a healthy young individual would need to vaccinate else there is a large societal impact. Transmission is not improved significantly else you would see large bifurcation in counties that are more vaccinated than others. Variants of concerns are coming from countries with poor sanitization conditions. There is no overwhelming of the hospitals because of young healthy patients. There are concerns on what healthy and young is but to each their own to calculate that risk/reward with their doctor. There is empirical statistic to say that a healthier society would do better against covid and be well off on other issues which include cancer and heart disease. There is also substantial evidence to say that well ventilated areas do reduce transmission. If there is any mandate it should be public areas show ventilation standards of less than 1000 ppm of CO2. There should also be message to society to get healthy – avoid process foods – increase fruits and vegetables consumption – when has someone died from eating too much fruit and vegetables?

Germany has decided to try to follow Austria and split society by those vaccinated to unvaccinated regardless of health/age status or prior immunity – https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/europe/germany-lockdown-covid-restrictions-intl/index.html

“Unvaccinated people will be banned from accessing all but the most essential businesses, such as supermarkets and pharmacies, to curb the spread of coronavirus, outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel and her successor, Olaf Scholz, announced Thursday, following crisis talks with regional leaders. Those who have recently recovered from Covid-19 are not covered by the ban.

The pair also backed proposals for mandatory vaccinations, which if voted through the parliament could take effect from February at the earliest.”

Do you see any relationship with vaccination and transmission? It was a wishful dream that vaccinations would change the trajectory of transmission – it doesn’t. Complete lockdown and quarantine would but do we really want to be like China?

County basis