Covid19mathblog.com

The good thing is we do not have homogenous decision making in the country/state/county level so we can actually learn what the results would mean via different policies. We have lab results and deduction from what we believe will happen – but reality has many variables and perhaps all the lab results mean nothing – as shown in the transmission of covid regardless of vax status. There is no doubt everyone wanted the lab results to translate to reality but it doesn’t all the time happened – as in vaccines do not help in reducing transmission – evidence is all the charts of transmission rates vs county vax levels in multiple postings. Now we have the mask in school debate. CDC is still recommending mask – https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/k-12-guidance.html.

“CDC recommends universal indoor masking by all* students (ages 2 years and older), staff, teachers, and visitors to K-12 schools, regardless of vaccination status.”

In general, we have been a proponent of mask in the sense the mask will capture liquid aerosols which MAY hold viral particles. Is it the most effective policy? Is it more a self-benefit? Does it translate to societal benefits? Does it cause school administration to ignore policies that would actually be more effective such as increase ventilation and watching CO2 levels? Well lets just look at real data and decide. Unfortunately it was a manual process to go state by state to find counties that align with school districts and ignore the counties that had multiple decisions within a county. So far we have filtered Michigan and North Carolina with the clear NO and clear YES mask mandates. We then looked at the county transmission rate since October 2021 (confirmed cases/per Capita). It would be ideal to look at youth transmission rates but we don’t have that detailed data on confirmations. We also overlayed it with vaccination rates in order to also show that seems to be irrelevant too.

IF mask in school was a key determinant of transmission in the county we should see a separation of the orange (Yes Mask Mandates) and the Blue (NO Mask Mandates) with orange at the lower end of the Y axis. Unfortunately the results do not show vaccination rates or mask mandates directly impacting transmission rates in the county since October 2021.

We have FL but we are only able to confirm all the county that are defying the Gov rule to not have mask mandates. In this case it looks more clear that mask gives a false sense of security and actually potentially leads to greater transmission. Do those mask district do less other actions because they have a mask mandate? Do parents send kids with minor symptoms into school because of mask mandates whereas those without mask are more obvious they need to stay at home? Is it a coincidence that those with mask mandates have resulted in higher transmission? As noted before in the beginning of this issue we need to learn from counties who are successful and find out what they did vs. just accept what sounds like it should work – we need to find out what actually works.

Stay tuned for more states as we gather the data.

Speaking of school policies we now see many asking colleges not to push booster onto students as the data seems to be clear the risk/reward for male students are not as appealing as it was presented in the beginning. https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/01/18/hundreds-sign-petition-to-repeal-stanford-universitys-covid-19-booster-vaccine-mandate/

A very important part is the tweet noted by Dr. Prasad – Paul Offit has advised his own son not to get the booster. Note he is the one typically who has been used as the source to argue against many claims – also sits on the FDA panel. https://covid19mathblog.com/2022/01/covid-1-6-22/

“Paul Offit, a man who made a vaccine, advised his own son not to take the risk of booster for uncertain gains”

Another study showing the efficacy of taking melatonin for Covid-19 – this was part of my kitchen sink – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8506572/?

“Conclusions

Adjuvant use of melatonin may help to reduce thrombosis, sepsis, and mortality in COVID-19 patients.”

Support for vaccine in reducing long covid – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.05.22268800v2?

“Conclusions Vaccination with at least two doses of COVID-19 vaccine was associated with a substantial decrease in reporting the most common post-acute COVID-19 symptoms, bringing it back to baseline. Our results suggest that, in addition to reducing the risk of acute illness, COVID-19 vaccination may have a protective effect against long COVID.”

Canada is on board in taking Fluvoxamine for treatment of Covid-19 – https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/fluvoxamine-what-prescribers-and-pharmacists-need-to-know/

US leads the world in deaths likely partly do the with and from debate.

India numbers are starting to be alarming. Confirmations starting to approach last year peaks

Surge is happening globally

NY lead death – CA leads confirmation for the US

Still unfortunately the forecast made previously will likely be too low.

High transmission rates continue in the northern region regardless of high vaccination rates.