Covid19mathblog.com

Continuing our data review of school mask by state – we finished compiling VA. Once again we ignore counties with mix policies. The Y axis represent county overall confirmed cases / county population since Oct 21. The X axis represents the vaccination rate for 18+.

In VA case we have two of the best counties having a mask mandate (Montgomery & Rockbridge) at the same time we have 2 of the worse counties also with mask mandate (Franklin & Roanoke). In between we have a mix baggage but still no clear separation from mask mandated schools/counties and their overall county transmission rate.

Here is a detail mask study done in MI indicating much lower transmission rate among students with mask back in Oct of 2021 – slide 11 points out mask helped – note this is before weather really got bad – https://www.michigan.gov/documents/coronavirus/20211012_Data_and_modeling_update_vMEDIA_738348_7.pdf

Our own dataset during this time period would indicate that as such but this isn’t the heart of the cold/flu season – this is akin to doing an analysis of natural gas demand in the summer and expecting a similar relationship into the winter. Where is the updated study now? I couldn’t find it.

Below is the latest as of Oct21 to now. Why did I choose Oct21 – some schools did not start till late Aug so I did not want to bias the non school issues into the equation. Also many school activities do not really show up till much later in the year.

As noted before in all the other states analyzed no big separation between mask mandated counties. In fact the best performing in terms of county transmission are non-mask mandate counties.

Another interesting difference in the study above vs. what is presented here is they were focused on school transmission. Here we are focused on the greater good of the county – overall county transmission. Could it be possible that youth transmission helps reduce societal transmission by building tolerance? Could school outbreak cause parents and kids to quarantine early reducing the societal spread? Could the children be the canary in the mine? Societal good vs. school good?

Stay tuned as we add more states. Perhaps at some point one of the states will show that mask mandates do significantly alter the county transmission.

NY supreme court strikes down mask mandates for public areas – https://www.axios.com/new-york-mask-mandate-court-595b4ba7-d9c4-4bab-b12d-34bff3d599d2.html

Once again more of a balance of power issue not an argument of efficacy.

“Enacting any laws to end COVID "is entrusted solely to the State Legislature," Nassau County Judge Thomas Rademaker wrote in the opinion.

"Should the State Legislature, representative of and voted into office by the citizens of New York, after publicly informed debate, decide to enact laws requiring face coverings in schools and other place places then the Commissioner would likely be well grounded in properly promulgated and enacted rules to supplement such laws."”

“: "My responsibility as Governor is to protect New Yorkers throughout this public health crisis, and these measures help prevent the spread of COVID-19 and save lives," Hochul said in a statement.

"We strongly disagree with this ruling, and we are pursuing every option to reverse this immediately."

Worth noting: New York’s court system includes a Supreme Court in each county that acts as a trial-level court of general jurisdiction. The state’s Court of Appeals is the highest court in New York.”

Imagine arguing over something that is cost effective and had a potential to save lives with minor side effects. But because no one wanted to spend 20+ Million dollar to setup a study to answer the concerns like they do with new drugs/vaccines – they(many in society) berated the drug (“horse pill”) and those who would choose to use it as unintelligent. Can you imagine later on that you ended up being wrong? What was the risk/reward for arguing against something potentially harmless but potentially lifesaving? I am sure someone will find an issue with this study that just came out from Brazil. There seems too much at stake now – lives could have been saved if this study is correct – https://www.cureus.com/articles/82162-ivermectin-prophylaxis-used-for-covid-19-a-citywide-prospective-observational-study-of-223128-subjects-using-propensity-score-matching

“Results: Of the 223,128 citizens of Itajaí considered for the study, a total of 159,561 subjects were included in the analysis: 113,845 (71.3%) regular ivermectin users and 45,716 (23.3%) non-users. Of these, 4,311 ivermectin users were infected, among which 4,197 were from the city of Itajaí (3.7% infection rate), and 3,034 non-users (from Itajaí) were infected (6.6% infection rate), with a 44% reduction in COVID-19 infection rate (risk ratio [RR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.53-0.58; p < 0.0001).”

“The regular use of ivermectin led to a 68% reduction in COVID-19 mortality (25 [0.8%] versus 79 [2.6%] among ivermectin non-users; RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.20-0.49; p < 0.0001). When adjusted for residual variables, reduction in mortality rate was 70% (RR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.46; p < 0.0001). There was a 56% reduction in hospitalization rate (44 versus 99 hospitalizations among ivermectin users and non-users, respectively; RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.31-0.63; p < 0.0001). After adjustment for residual variables, reduction in hospitalization rate was 67% (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 023-0.66; p < 0.0001).”

“Conclusion: In this large PSM study, regular use of ivermectin as a prophylactic agent was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality rates.”

“In a citywide ivermectin program with prophylactic, optional ivermectin use for COVID-19, ivermectin was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death rates from COVID-19.”

Personally seeing all the data and evaluating the risk – there is not a doubt in mind similar to taking vitamins C and D that if my love ones or myself just got infected with covid – I would seriously consider ivermectin. Obviously individually one needs to consult with your doctor as everyone has a unique circumstance. To eliminate this as a treatment option during a pandemic is amazing.

Speaking of treatment options the FDA has removed the EUA for monoclonal antibodies resulting in closures of clinics in FL – https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/florida-monoclonal-antibody-sites-closed/67-3b45cd3a-3025-424a-93a6-255f8651172c

“The FDA said it was revoking emergency authorization for both drugs, which were purchased by the federal government and given to millions of Americans with COVID-19 – bamlanivimab and etesevimab, which are given together, and REGEN-COV. They remain authorized "only when the patient is likely to have been infected with or exposed to a variant that is susceptible to these treatments," the FDA said.

If the drugs prove effective against future variants, the FDA said it could reauthorize their use.

The regulatory move was expected because both drugmakers had said the infusion drugs are less able to target omicron due to its mutations. Still, the federal action could trigger pushback from some Republican governors who have continued promoting the drugs against the advice of health experts.

In a statement, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis called the reversal "sudden and reckless."”

Another potential vaccine a fraction of the cost coming – or will it be squashed? – https://www.sciencealert.com/a-new-patent-free-covid-19-vaccine-could-be-a-global-game-changer

“All COVID-19 vaccines teach the immune system how to recognize the virus and prepare the body to mount an attack. The CORBEVAX vaccine is a protein subunit vaccine. It uses a harmless piece of the spike protein from the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 to stimulate and prepare the immune system for future encounters with the virus.

Unlike the three vaccines approved in the US – Pfizer and Moderna’s mRNA vaccines and Johnson & Johnson’s viral vector vaccine, which provide the body instructions on how to produce the spike protein – CORBEVAX delivers the spike protein to the body directly. Like those other approved COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, CORBEVAX also requires two doses.”

“CORBEVAX was developed by the co-directors of the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development at Baylor College of Medicine, Drs. Maria Elena Bottazzi and Peter Hotez.

During the 2003 SARS outbreak, these researchers created a similar type of vaccine by inserting the genetic information for a portion of the SARS virus spike protein into yeast to produce large amounts of the protein. After isolating the virus spike protein from the yeast and adding an adjuvant, which helps trigger an immune response, the vaccine was ready for use.”

“A large US-based clinical trial found the vaccine to be safe, well tolerated and over 90 percent effective at preventing symptomatic infections. The vaccine received emergency use authorization in India, and other developing countries are expected to follow.”

“Protein subunit vaccines have an advantage over mRNA vaccines in that they can be readily produced using well-established recombinant DNA technology that is relatively inexpensive and fairly easy to scale up. A similar protein recombinant technology that’s been around for 40 years has been used for the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine, which is available for use in 170 countries, and the recombinant hepatitis B vaccine.

This vaccine can be produced at a much larger scale because appropriate manufacturing facilities are already available. Also key to global access is that CORBEVAX can be stored in a regular refrigerator. Therefore, it is possible to produce millions of doses rapidly and distribute them relatively easily.”

Huge spikes in confirmation from France and India….US still leads in both categories.

CA and NY leading the US

Winter deaths continue to climb