Covid 2/1/2022 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

Happy Chinese New Year – the Year of the Tiger. Tiger year is connected with New Beginnings – hopefully we can reset on all the divisions created by covid.

US Stats to consider/ponder into the new year:

85% of covid hospitalizations have four or more comorbidities
80+% of those hospitalized are unvaccinated
The odds of hospitalization after a confirmation is less than 4% (being the max increase in hospitalization / 7 day moving confirmation) average under 1%
50+ over 80% vaccinated
Less than 10% of covid deaths under 55 under – less than 2% under 34 less than 0.3% under 25

Point 2 makes it easy to jump on the unvaccinated to make it a PANDEMIC of the UNVACCINATED but that’s not a proper characterization of the issue. Absorb point 3 please. So if 1000 people gets confirmed at max its 40 people being hospitalized most likely less than 10 with 8 being unvaccinated. This 8 is now represented of the entire unvaccinated? Incorporate point 1 – majority being hospitalized have many comorbidity. This shows in general overall poor lifestyle decisions. What is amazing people expect people to change from making poor decisions so quickly? The same people who failed to calculate risk/reward in other lifestyle issues likely miscalculates the vaccine value seems like a reasonable and most likely outcome. Hence point 2 is being observed. These unvaccinated do not makeup a majority of the unvaccinated. It is true the healthy (1 or less comorbidity) probably represents a minority of the US but if they would incorporate a risk/reward profile they would and should be less vaccinated. Many will argue that society is not smart enough to do their own risk/reward – this is not true per point 4 and point 5. As a country we are around 63% vaccinated – but the wisdom of the country is greater than many suggest it is – point 4 shows those at risk SHOULD and DO take the vaccine.

If anything the pandemic is of the unhealthy with a preponderance of those individuals who have made poor lifestyle choices and continue to do so with vaccination decision. To bucket the unvaccinated healthy people is unfair and discriminatory. You are asking the healthy unvaccinated to do something because the majority needs to do it – but yet they get a minor benefit if not a potential long-term risk with little reward. A subset of the hospitalized unvaccinated does not characterize the majority of the unvaccinated (latest MMR (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) shows 33.6% confirmed unvaccinated – so in the above 8/336= 2% represents the entire unvaccinated?) . This is where the politicians and media have mislead the public. The vitriol to the unvaccinated is unwarranted and shameful. The vitriol to the unvaccinated unhealthy perhaps can be reasonable without empathy of the past – these people have a history of poor decisions.

2 years of data lets just learn from the data. Continuing with the school mask mandate and its effect on county transmission below is Oregon where all district required to mask. Once again IF school mask was a major lever to control covid county transmission should be rather all close. However you can see it is best the state figure out what Lake, Gillam, Douglas, Curry. Clastsop, Tillamook – do differently than the rest of the counties.

Just to rule out simple demographic issue difference – we pulled some demographics of the above counties to compare with Jefferson Deschutes and Crook. Jefferson is very similar to Clatsop & Douglas – so there must be actions done that separate Clatsop & Douglas from Jefferson.