Covid19mathblog.com
Continuing looking at school mask mandates by state by county – we look at CA and TX. CA has a state mandate – TX has an inverse mandate (gov not allowing mask mandates) but a few school districts continue to disobey. Overall since Oct 2021 there is no clear separation with CA. In fact comparing the major city Houston,Austin vs. San Diego, Los Angeles – the TX cities are doing better in reducing transmission. Also to note you have very high vaccinated counties observing high transmission relative to the others (Imperial CA, Irion TX, Maverick TX, Webb TX)
As we have been showing even before Omicron – vaccination status does not have significant impact on transmission. Here is study noting the results for Omicron – https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1279005/v1
“…index vaccinated cases seem to have the same transmission capacity that non-vaccinated people. This did not happen with Delta, where significant SARs differences were observed in global, household and occupational settings (Table 1) within groups.”
They finally did a human trial with covid. The important takeaway is they KNOW who to choose so they don’t have a fatal result or adverse effects. If they know this then they should also be able to pinpoint the vaccine vs. shotgun approach. IF they know this then why make those that you would purposely infect be vaccinated? Also shows that even purposely given the dose not everyone in the category got infected – only 53%! None of them got to the point needing Regeneron. Also they used essentially 1 nasal droplet for infection. https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1121993/v1
“To establish a novel SARS-CoV-2 human challenge model, 36 volunteers aged 18-29 years without evidence of previous infection or vaccination were inoculated with 10 TCID50 of a wild-type virus (SARS-CoV-2/human/GBR/484861/2020) intranasally. Two participants were excluded from per protocol analysis due to seroconversion between screening and inoculation. Eighteen (~53%) became infected, with viral load (VL) rising steeply and peaking at ~5 days post-inoculation. Virus was first detected in the throat but rose to significantly higher levels in the nose, peaking at ~8.87 log10 copies/ml (median, 95% CI [8.41,9.53). Viable virus was recoverable from the nose up to ~10 days post-inoculation, on average. There were no serious adverse events. Mild-to-moderate symptoms were reported by 16 (89%) infected individuals, beginning 2-4 days post-inoculation.
Anosmia/dysosmia developed more gradually in 12 (67%) participants.”
“Thirty-six healthy volunteers aged 18-29 years old were enrolled according to protocol-defined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Screening included assessments for known risk factors for severe COVID-19, including
co-morbidities, low or high body mass index, abnormal safety blood tests, spirometry and chest radiography (Figure 1a & Protocol). The protocol had been given a favourable opinion by the UK Health Research Authority – Ad Hoc Specialist Ethics Committee (reference:
20/UK/2001 and 20/UK/0002).”
“greater than mild CT imaging changes or SaO2 ≤94%) were defined for triggering of rescue treatment with monoclonal antibodies (Regeneron), but no such treatment was ultimately required.”
“following SARS-CoV-2 human challenge, viral shedding begins within 2 days of exposure, rapidly reaching high levels with viable virus detectable up to 12 days post-inoculation, and significantly higher VL in the nose than the throat despite its later onset.”
NZ finally opening up – interesting time to open up with the surge at its highest point ever – perhaps needed to open up so can diffuse the issue of pending deaths to justify quarantine? –
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-new-zealand-4513b42df9301b9baacb874c7b91cb30
Another vitamin D study – once again a very asymmetric risk/reward to take Vitamin D – clearly being deficient of Vitamin D is not a good thing – and too much generally just leaves the body.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0263069
“Of 1176 patients admitted, 253 had records of a 25(OH)D level prior to COVID-19 infection. A lower vitamin D status was more common in patients with the severe or critical disease (<20 ng/mL [87.4%]) than in individuals with mild or moderate disease (<20 ng/mL [34.3%] p < 0.001). Patients with vitamin D deficiency (<20 ng/mL) were 14 times more likely to have severe or critical disease than patients with 25(OH)D ≥40 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR], 14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4 to 51; p < 0.001).”
“Among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, pre-infection deficiency of vitamin D was associated with increased disease severity and mortality.”
Natural immunity looks to be better in terms of longevity relative to vaccination – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788894
“Although evidence of natural immunity in unvaccinated healthy US adults up to 20 months after confirmed COVID-19 infection is encouraging, it is unclear how these antibody levels correlate with protection against future SARS-CoV-2 infections, particularly with emerging variants. The public health implications and long-term understanding of these findings merit further consideration.”
An awful mask study supporting mask – just done so bad in so many ways and then spun in a way to show efficacy – https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm
The good thing is many people saw the same issues so I don’t have to get into it – https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/mask-studies-reach-a-new-scientific
US still leads in deaths and confirmation – 23% of population has been infected now – greater than the princess diamond cruise ship. France is at 32%!
France with over 80% vaccinated having an historic surge and deaths near last year certainly doesn’t show much confidence in their vaccine program.
US confirmation falling but deaths continue to rise.
Winter deaths have surpassed our forecast back in Sept. – should still be better than last year but not as much as one would think with over 85% vaccinated in the 50+ category.
Deaths in the USA is better than last year – confirmations are up from last year.
OK and TN are the hotspots for transmission
