Covid 3/15/22

Covid19mathblog.com

If you look at Asia as a whole a covid spike is not unexpected given the pattern from last year. What is interesting it was India & Turkey growing in confirmation last year – however it is not India Turkey but China, S. Korea, Thailand, Vietnam now.

India is at the bottom of a previous surge – last year started growing at this point

Turkey is coming off now whereas last year started growing at this point

China is in unprecedented territory at least in reporting confirmations and deaths.

South Korea has gone exponential – however the fatality rates are extremely low given the reported confirmations – still highest deaths ever.

Thailand has seen this spike before

Vietnam is going parabolic in confirmations but the deaths are staying low. Are we measuring a cold/flu like virus now?

New Zealand confirmations and death are all time highs

Here in the US things are down below last year in both deaths and confirmations.

US tops deaths still but way below many countries for confirmation.

519 death revision in MA. CA leads in deaths and tied with TX in confirmation.

Unfortunately mask or vaccination rates were not the key variable in controlling transmission rates (TX FL typically no mask mandate vs. CA NY mask mandates) – X axis vaccination rates.

This was also demonstrated in this study – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4046809

“Interpretation: FCM mandates in schools were not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 incidence or transmission, suggesting that this intervention was not effective. Instead, age-dependency was the most important factor in explaining the transmission risk for children attending school.”

When they conclude age – it really means behavior. Certain behaviors particularly in certain age groups lead to transmission. AND/OR the age group classrooms were somehow different than the others.

Unfortunately we continue to see how levels of deaths vs. normal levels (2014-2019)

Disclaimer of Covid19MathBlog.com

This website is a resource for individuals and entities other than current or prospective investors and offers general market observations. No content presented on this website should be construed as an offer to sell, or solicitation of any offer to purchase, any securities or other investments or as an offer to provide any advisory services; this website does not create an advisory relationship with any user.

The information on COVID-19 and the impacts of the novel coronavirus are presented to contribute to the public discussion and debate. Information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but nothing on this website should be deemed to be or interpreted as being medical, epidemiological, or public health advice. All visitors to the website are urged to follow the advice of their medical professionals, the U.S. Center for Disease Controls, and any other relevant governmental authorities.

Disclaimer of Warranties and Accuracy of Data

Although the data herein has been produced and processed from sources believed to be reliable, no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. This disclaimer applies to both isolated and aggregate uses of the information. The information is provided on an "as is" basis. All warranties of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, freedom from contamination by computer viruses and non-infringement of proprietary rights are disclaimed. Changes may be periodically made to the information herein; these changes may or may not be incorporated in any new version of the publication. Data can also quickly become out-of-date. It is recommended that careful attention be paid to the contents of any data associated with a file, and that the originator of the data or information be contacted with any questions regarding appropriate use.

Disclaimer of Reliability

By using the this website, you assume all risks associated with the use of this site, including any risk of your computer, software or data being damaged by any virus, software, or any other file which might be transmitted or activated via a COVID 19 Math Blog web page or your access to it. COVID 19 Math Blog shall not be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, including, without limitation, lost revenues or lost profits, resulting from the use or misuse of the information contained in COVID 19 Math Blog web pages.

Links to Other Websites

This website contains links to other Internet websites and information provided by persons not affiliated with COVID 19 Math Blog. Such links are not endorsements or referrals of any products, services or information contained in such websites, and no information in any such website has been endorsed or approved hereby. No claims, promises, or guarantees about the completeness, accuracy, currency, content or quality of information contained in the links to and from this website are made; information provided and opinions expressed by others do not necessarily represent the opinion of Skylar. Skylar expressly disclaims any and all liability resulting from reliance on such information or opinions.