Covid19mathblog.com

The big topic of recent is the airline mask mandate. Policy/Mandates range in effectiveness. Policy/Mandates should be viewed in the following light – #1 If followed does it do what its intended to do. #2 Policing policy/mandate capability – Enforcement and punishment.

In the beginning we noted common sense would say a mask effectively worn would reduce some probability of infection largely as viruses would at the very least be found on liquid aerosol and would be captured even on cloth mask. However the data suggest this policy/mandate does not work. We can easily measure counties with mandates (school mask mandates – typically also have mask mandates in other areas).

In general (NY/CA) many more mandates vs. (FL/TX)

Michigan had clear county distinctions for School Mask Mandates – no large differences in outcome

Many areas show that mandates actually increase transmission. Hypothesis to this is due #2 Policing – enforcement and punishment. Clearly when people don’t want to do something but still do it they don’t do it very well. The degree of failure of mask from not putting over nose to using the right materials are areas where a person who is against will push the limits. In most cases you are depending on fight attendants/ teachers to police the situation. I doubt many were trained in policing and proper face wearing and identification of materials that would be sufficient as mask. Punishment was a reprimand? Kicked off the plane can’t go to school to work? Who was in charge of enforcing this punishment? Trained to do this? Wearing a mask is similar to other hygiene routines (in terms of actions) which we don’t mandate – washing hands after going to bathroom – covering mouth when sneezing/coughing – etc…The reason is its hard to enforce and police. Certainly a societal recommendation and pressure seems to suffice for most. The biggest issue with mask mandates which likely caused more transmission than places without – it is hypothesized because of the mandates the board/management team did not further do other things to mitigate as the mask was supposed to be sufficient given the govt mandate. Their logic could be -Why would the govt not mandate what is sufficient? Would the govt. mandate something less inferior than another effective action? However there is something that would have been more effective and easy to police and actually be effective – A national CO2 ppm guideline for public spaces. A CO2 sensor is a cost effective measuring device <$100. OSHA could have easily done this and even offer grants for areas not achieving CO2 levels to help them fix it. The policing and effectiveness of this mandate is superior over mask mandates and I would contend be better than a mask. Now someone can still do both and be ultra safe but a CO2 mandate would have and is a superior policy to mask mandates.

Here is a study since that’s what is needed to merit common sense concerns and data interpretation skills seem to be limited for many- https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

“Conclusion:

The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers by more than 50% in a community with modest infection rates, some degree of social distancing, and uncommon general mask use. The data were compatible with lesser degrees of self-protection.”

Also we have shown multiple times before that airplanes are very well ventilated compared to public buildings given the requirement to bring in fresh air into the cabin. We also have multiple studies showing relatively minimal spread in airplane even though confirmed patients on plane – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-3299_article

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30314-5/fulltext

I have to talk about this last topic. I attended my nephew service age 21 a couple of weeks ago – still processing. Perhaps the direct line to covid policy is hard here – but I know for a fact my own teenage kids have had an awful 2 years. My son missed his prom – had his first year of college in his dorm room. All this took a great toll on him – perhaps he needs to “man up” and realize how many elderly he has saved from staying in his dorm room and sacrificing his prime fun youth time period. My daughter sophomore/junior HS has been awful. Social media bullying is much more prominent when people don’t have to physically see each other. It is akin to driving a car and how one can do things they would not do if they were not surrounded by 1+ton of metal to remove them from their connection to another human being. I truly empathize to our youths including those in China – just shocking. Here is study which shows this issue – unfortunately the study time period is not long enough to actually get the true social impact but it’s a start – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(22)00082-2/fulltext

“In conclusion, although the effects of lockdowns on overall population mental health were small, there were substantial and clinically relevant effects for some groups. The adverse mental health effects were largely seen in women with dependent children, who are likely to have borne the burden of the additional workload associated with working from home, as well as caring for and educating children. As such, the lockdown exaggerated existing inequalities in the responsibility for household and caring duties. These mental health effects should be accounted for when evaluating the merits and costs of the Australian COVID-19 policy approach.”

The US still leads in deaths – but Germany, S. Korea, France, and Italy have higher confirmations. On a per capita basis Australia and NZ alarming. Many European countries approaching 50% per capita confirmation.

US surge likely not going to happen till a few weeks from now when it gets hot to drive everyone inside in the South.

Australia pushed out their issues with massive quarantines – hopefully this means fatality rates will be lower as they can get vaccinated to reduce fatality – but they are seeing very high confirmations now.

New Zealand admired by many now still in a confirmation bubble – approaching 600 deaths this year.

Germany is observing one of the longest confirmation bubbles – most countries spike and then come off – this has been elevated since Feb. Deaths are half of last year.

Who knows if China data is accurate but we are still seeing elevated confirmation – deaths are coming off.

Ukraine has issues more important than covid – 0 reported confirmations for awhile

Our two most regulated states NY and CA lead confirmation and deaths. Note confirmation per capita all converging no one is becoming an outlier showing their policies of limiting transmission was better.