Collateral damage from covid-19 quarantine is real. As noted before the leading US death is Heart disease 647K/yr and followed by Cancer 599K/yr (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm)– both a function lifestyle and both very time dependent on diagnosis to be able to be preventive. The current US total death from covid-19 stands at 174K ytd – much data also indicates this is function of lifestyle.
This paper shows that there are an excess of cardiac arrest occurring in the community as those are not going to visit their doctors and doing their usual health routines that could prevent heart attacks before they happen – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7293523/
“Out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) were 2.2-fold higher in 2020 compared with averaged historical controls over the same 2-week period. ∗p < 0.005 versus peri-mandate and pre-mandate; †p = 0.037 versus peri-mandate, p = 0.002 versus pre-mandate; ‡p = 0.002. EMS = emergency medical services.”
“Across-the-board restrictions on nonemergent procedures enacted by states, hospitals, and cardiovascular society guidelines may lead to delays in diagnosis and definitive treatment. Finally, patient fear of contracting COVID-19 while seeking care may lead to avoidance of lifesaving therapies.”
Missing in the analysis is OHCA fatality rate – I presume by simple logic it must be higher than heart attack at hospital.
Finally some closure – its not about singing per se – but the VOLUME of air – so the louder talker can be just as bad as singing – so you can still sing just really quietly – perhaps quarantine rules need to be similar to the movie A Quiet Place (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Quiet_Place_(film)#:~:text=A%20Quiet%20Place%20is%20a,by%20and%20starring%20John%20Krasinski.) – you cant talk and on a long enough timeline the virus would just be eliminated since it cant spread and find a vulnerable host https://chemrxiv.org/articles/preprint/Comparing_the_Respirable_Aerosol_Concentrations_and_Particle_Size_Distributions_Generated_by_Singing_Speaking_and_Breathing/12789221
“At the quietest volume (50 to 60 dB), neither singing (p=0.19) or speaking (p=0.20) were significantly different to breathing. At the loudest volume (90 to 100 dB), a statistically significant difference (p<1×10-5) is observed between singing and speaking, but with singing only generating a factor of between 1.5 and 3.4 more aerosol mass. Guidelines should create recommendations based on the volume and duration of the vocalisation, the number of participants and the environment in which the activity occurs, rather than the type of vocalisation. Mitigations such as the use of amplification and increased attention to ventilation should be employed where practicable.”
Brazil leads the pack at 1204
Leading state in the US is Texas at 240 deaths
Leading death county was LA at 54. There is something going on with the data in MA – big reclassification in confirmation and then also big jump in deaths.
LA county is now over 10% of per capita confirmed – so if you bump into 10 people in LA 1 of them will likely have covid.
NZ confirmations not getting back to 0. I guess they celebrated their success too soon.
