Another study noting infected likely outpacing confirmed cases. This one was done in LA County and roughly same results – 4.1%. They both have similar population density LA County slightly higher at 2474 population/mi^2 vs Santa Clara 1448 population/mi^2 – for perspective NY County 71,380 pop/mi^2.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county?

The impact is two fold. The first discussed is the mortality rate as a function of confirmed drops drastically. Hence I have been reporting the crude fatality rate (population denominator) as suggested by many experts to use. From article: “The mortality rate is based on the number of confirmed infections; the higher the number of infections, the lower the fatality rate. Both studies estimated a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%, which is closer to the death rate associated with the seasonal flu.” Now just because its close to the seasonal flu doesn’t mean you jump off a cliff and join the right wing conspirator – the population that is confirmed will likely be much higher than seasonal flu given the contagious nature. Also I suspect the death rate among those hospitalized is much greater than the common flu. In addition this is sunny not as dense CA vs. NYC.

““If this mortality were to continue for the whole year — we hope it doesn’t, but if it did — COVID would be the leading cause of death in Los Angeles County,” Simon said.”

Nonetheless it is not the worse case scenario – which is a good thing – some people really seem to want the worse case.

The other factor not discussed is the sheer volume of people infected and what it means to quarantine. This would mean that NYC is likely over 5% – assuming 5% confirmed – mortality rate is ~2% vs. ~7% now. The positive nature of myself can spin this to be a positive. The cat being out of the bag means we can probably realize that many people will not have much to any symptoms. Many with symptoms can do fine without hospitalization. We need to focus and understand who gets hospitalized. We can with much more certainty test for those issues. Once that is identified we know who for sure needs to be quarantined. With that subset being smaller we should be able to pay them and those that take care of them a monthly stipend (UBI like) to stay quarantined. The rest can restore our economy. Those getting sick should stay home as viral load minimization is key as discussed in many findings. This is what I mean by “SMART”quarantine. We can do better we don’t have to be trading life and yet sustain our very nature of our democracy and freedom. We can do both – its not as binary as it is portrayed in the media. The media loves to biforcate the issue. Each camp gets a captive audience. I believe testing should be SMART deployed – move testing to hot spots – Follow S. Korea approach. Mass quarantine can be implemented in hot spots but phased back using a “SMART” quarantine approach.

Another positive from this – the ability for the second phase – the winter time flu season – will not as be rough vs. if we all stay quarantine. This is how I would make lemonade with lemon news as such.

On lighter news – can we go long on divorce lawyers – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/divorces-spike-in-china-after-coronavirus-quarantines

“Shanghai divorce lawyer Steve Li at Gentle & Trust Law Firm says his caseload has increased 25% since the city’s lockdown eased in mid-March. Infidelity used to be the No. 1 reason clients showed up at his office door, he says, adding that “people have time to have love affairs when they’re not at home.” Like Christmas in the West, China’s multiday Lunar New Year holiday can strain familial bonds. When the virus hit in late January, on the eve of the festivities, couples in many cities had to endure an additional two months trapped under the same roof, sometimes with extended family. For many it was too much.”

“A study of people in Hong Kong in the wake of the 2002-03 SARS epidemic found that “one year after the outbreak, SARS survivors still had elevated stress levels and worrying levels of psychological distress,” including depression and anxiety; divorce in Hong Kong’s general population in 2004 was 21% higher than 2002 levels. SARS infected nearly 1,800 people in Hong Kong and killed 299 after originating over the border in China, which reported a total of more than 5,300 cases and 336 deaths. China has so far reported more than 80,000 Covid-19 cases and more than 3,300 deaths.”

Don’t quarantine in the house the whole time – it’s not healthy – I force my teenagers outside at least 10-15 min. It is too easy to live in the virtual world – but you won’t get the sunlight your body needs – https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022202X15368974

Exercise and eat healthy IF you really want to help this situation – seriously use your commute time for commitment to be healthy – go juice! https://www.rebootwithjoe.com/mean-green-juice/ I wish juicers would sell out ….

Still crossing the fingers the weekend data drop is real…so far so good on the death front…

Not only death changes following but also confirmed cases – even on 7 day moving avg. NJ is precariously wanting to turn down but it looks to be heading up. NY is in a clear downward movement for confirmed cases. The positive/tested has dropped to 39% now. Every state has tested over 0.5% of the population now.

NY is no longer an outlier in daily death differences. However CT and NJ has not peaked.

Using the absolute numbers for US one would think we are the big losers in all this. However that’s just not true. The US certainly is not the best but not the worst when considering a per capita view and even a population density view for NYC. Our testing volumes are reasonable but could be better (1.2% per capita – Spain and Italy over 2% but they are 2 months ahead in terms of confirmation. NY has surpassed Italy and Spain in under month to what took them 2+ months. Confirmation to population (contagion of disease) 0.24% with over 1.2% tested per capita not horrendous (Belgium 0.34% tested 1.4%) not great (S. Korea 0.02% tested 1.1%). US Deaths per population (healthcare system efficacy) 0.01% as compared to Belgium (0.05%) S. Korea (.0005%). Cup is half full? Yes we can and should do better.

NY, UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Iran, Switzerland, France, optimistically have peaked in daily death change 7 day Moving Avg. Germany, NJ, Brazil, MA, CT, PA, GA, Sweden, Canada, Mexico, upward trend still. FL is on a plateau right now – we will see if the opening of the beaches does something.