No expert in this field – but an expert in evaluating data – data is data and interpretation of data involves logic which as noted cant be hacked (attribute E. Snowden). WHO reverses stance on lockdown as the data has clearly shown lockdowns don’t necessarily work https://amp.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-condemning-lockdowns/news-story/f2188f2aebff1b7b291b297731c3da74
“The World Health Organisation has backflipped on its original COVID-19 stance after calling for world leaders to stop locking down their countries and economies.
Dr. David Nabarro from the WHO appealed to world leaders yesterday, telling them to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method” of the coronavirus.
He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved.”
““We in the World Health Organisation do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Dr Nabarro told The Spectator.
“The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.”
Dr Nabarro’s main criticism of lockdowns involved the global impact, explaining how poorer economies that had been indirectly affected.”
“They created a petition, called the Great Barrington Declaration, which said that lockdowns were doing “irreparable damage.”
“As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection,” read the petition.
“Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health.”
The petition has had 12,000 signatures so far.
It was authored by Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford, Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, and Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University.
When asked about the petition, Dr Nabarro had only good things to say. “Really important point by Professor Gupta,” he said.”
Adaptation makes the human race so strong. Initially lockdown was a legitimate knee jerk reaction – but the data is clearly showing lockdown likely do more harm for various reasons and do not achieve the goals set forth (reduction of transmission) without superior government oversight not available in many free and less technological develop countries. We noted this in the very beginning that Sweden MAY be right. Reported early and acknowledged that the high jump in deaths in Sweden was attributable to fail oversight at nursing home which needed to not impact the Quarantine/lockdown logic as this is solved not by more lockdown but better management at those facilities (https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/5/covid-5-13-20/) The spread is not generally from a stranger but someone you spend time with indoor. The ability of a free govt to stop relatives and friends getting together is limited. We need to recognize that solutions can come from re-engineer the ventilation system where gathering is taking place – increase fresh air – better filtration – properly wear a mask in the setting. Also the knowledge that comorbidities increases the odds of death AND infection – the more healthier you are the higher viral load you can take before becoming infected. Instead of paying $1K+ on pills make society healthier which is likely more doable than locking people up. Lockdown is creating more harm than good. China control and management of people through required phone tracing allows them to continue to push that policy. Unless we want to do that we cannot expect lockdowns to work as effectively. With 6+ months of data US state and county data shows that there is no strong correlation for lockdown and effectiveness in terms of limiting the spread.
Interesting report from the UK govt – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923668/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_40.pdf
Can you guess what happened week 36?
Temps for lows starting showing below 50….
Currently unlike the US the school setting is an apparent issue for UK. Perhaps the weather in the US hasn’t kicked in – hopefully school districts have done to their best of their ability to get as much fresh air into the buildings. However note that this spread breakdown is not so much different than other causes of ARI (e.g. flu)
Interesting to see equally from primary and secondary – I would initially think secondary and college more due to socializing – but this may be skewed as not based on population category more in primary?
Its happening at homes as noted several times….
Not from strangers
Associated events from exposure – once again centered on indoor areas
Age big driver in going to hospital and eventually ICU
Positive thing excess death is limited of recently if not negative indicating a expedited death of only a few months
No country above 1K again
FL leads death at 178
Miami-Dade leads all counties at 30
Big 4 – LA probably had the most restrictive yet they are the most confirmed per capita 12.6%
