Covid19mathblog.com
Data spin – this one had me thinking on what possibly they could mean and the angle that is playing – the article wants to conclude city living is safe if not safer than living in the rurals based on statistics.…https://fortune.com/2020/10/14/covid-coronavirus-city-density-nyc-south-dakota/
“A key measure of COVID-19’s spread in the U.S. has been decidedly weird for more than a week. Day after day, the states with the highest infection rates—new cases per 100,000 residents—have been North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, among the least densely populated states in America. With social distancing critical to fighting COVID-19, how can this be? The emerging answer is significant for individuals, employers, and policymakers”
Hmmm how about temperature? People going inside and not ventilating their facilities to “save” energy.
Compared to NY
It is true per capita is rising – but its not beyond the level of other hotspot in history – and by making the denominator per capita you are removing some density by default. So IF confirmation is the same level on a per capita basis as another place – still the odds of bumping into an individual is much less so to argue living in the city is safer is mind boggling.
Another food for thought – is the level of socialization whether you are in a city or country would likely be similar? Church Sundays? Family gatherings etc… those things don’t change too much as a society. As noted several times its not a stranger you are obtaining the covid from – its someone you socialize/work with. Viral load takes time to build up and as long as you are healthy it can be quite some time. It is interesting to see confirmation per capita rising for Bismark area above the Boston Area – but its still well below AZ and LA.
Certainly human behavior has a huge component on how things spread which policies cannot seem to control in country as such. Education and prevention is likely the best route for a society like ours. China command and control works well.
Bad news on the vaccine front both Eli Lilly and Johnson & Johnson paused – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/us-pauses-eli-lillys-trial-of-a-coronavirus-antibody-treatment-over-safety-concerns.html
“Eli Lilly’s late-stage trial of its leading monoclonal antibody treatment for the coronavirus has been paused by U.S. health regulators over potential safety concerns, the company confirmed to CNBC on Tuesday.”
“The news comes less than 24 hours after Johnson & Johnson confirmed that its late-stage coronavirus vaccine trial was paused after a participant reported an “adverse event” the day before.”
Turning to the school front:
El Paso limited school is not supporting the closing of school as they are rising more than all the other counties and they are the least in person county. Ft. Bend at 100% no issue so far.
FL no issue so far for those that are more open
Not a very good spread in CA – but San Diego with 10% vs. 0 Santa Clara shows no major divergence per history before opening
Stark OH seeing a rise but this is 35+ days since open – time will tell for Mahonning. Lorrain is showing signs of rising confirmation though no in school
Boulder has pulled back from all the confirmation but they had the least in school – Adams is rising since 20 days after opening – they should check in with El Paso to see if there are operational differences?
Centre PA did open more than Daugphin and did see a rise in confirmation – and just now saw additional deaths – but Dauphin actually saw a big spike in deaths regardless of school being closed.
US still on top but under 1K deaths
New US state leader Missouri at 120 deaths – TX still reporting high confirmations
St Louis leading county at 33 deaths – LA county leads confirmation at 1266
Lots of anti-sweden coming out – but they fail to ignore the initial spike as a function of failed nursing home….currently the lowest death per capita – https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/
