Covid 10/22/20 | COVID 19 Information Page

Continuing with the economic view of covid – this report notes an estimated $16 Trillion impact accounting for the cost of death similar done for climate change calculations – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771764

“Since the onset of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in March, 60 million claims have been filed for unemployment insurance. Before COVID-19, the greatest number of weekly new unemployment insurance claims (based on data from 1967 on) was 695 000 in the week of October 2, 1982. For 20 weeks beginning in late March 2020, new unemployment claims exceeded 1 million per week; as of September 20, new claims have been just below that amount.”

“The Congressional Budget Office projects a total of $7.6 trillion in lost output during the next decade.”

“The total cost is estimated at more than $16 trillion, or approximately 90% of the annual gross domestic product of the US. For a family of 4, the estimated loss would be nearly $200 000. Approximately half of this amount is the lost income from the COVID-19–induced recession; the remainder is the economic effects of shorter and less healthy life.”

Certainly life is priceless – but we all will die its just a matter of how we die and what we do about it. For the mass of society – history has shown a choice of economic prosperity outweighs health risk – hence the industrial revolution. Most don’t want to beg on the streets or worry about getting food on the table each day and rather take the risk of doing preventative actions to shift the odds into their favor – wear mask, leave location or create ventilation, wash hands, take vitamins, stay healthy eat well and exercise. When society breaks down people will do things that perhaps they would not do e.g. crime. The preventative measures that are being taken need to consider these ramifications. Many note initially quarantine was done to mitigate the hospital from being overwhelm and the unknown was so great – all makes sense at the time. Now things have changed we clearly know more hence mortality rates are down. All these emergency hospital spaces never got used outside NY. We do have buffer and we should plan to use SOME of it given the potential dire economic consequences. Would closing society mitigate covid spread – yes somewhat– but it will also do other things and we need to seriously weigh the consequences. Does closing society actually achieve the level of results needed for sustain opening – NOT in the US – just look at LA and many other counties in US. Peoples behavior is too hard to police unless we move to the China govt. model.

This study is driving the new statement of close contact by CDC – which is now anyone you spend 15 min within 24 hr even if noncontiguous – but in reality it SHOULD be to fix ventilation in rooms which will have people in it other than yourself- https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6943e1.htm?s_cid=mm6943e1_w

“On August 11, 2020, a confirmed case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a male correctional facility employee (correctional officer) aged 20 years was reported to the Vermont Department of Health (VDH). On July 28, the correctional officer had multiple brief encounters with six incarcerated or detained persons (IDPs)* while their SARS-CoV-2 test results were pending. The six asymptomatic IDPs arrived from an out-of-state correctional facility on July 28 and were housed in a quarantine unit. In accordance with Vermont Department of Corrections (VDOC) policy for state prisons, nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from the six IDPs on their arrival date and tested for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, at the Vermont Department of Health Laboratory, using real-time reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). On July 29, all six IDPs received positive test results. VDH and VDOC conducted a contact tracing investigation† and used video surveillance footage to determine that the correctional officer did not meet VDH’s definition of close contact (i.e., being within 6 feet of infectious persons for ≥15 consecutive minutes)§,¶; therefore, he continued to work. At the end of his shift on August 4, he experienced loss of smell and taste, myalgia, runny nose, cough, shortness of breath, headache, loss of appetite, and gastrointestinal symptoms; beginning August 5, he stayed home from work. An August 5 nasopharyngeal specimen tested for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time RT-PCR at a commercial laboratory was reported as positive on August 11;”

“Although the correctional officer never spent 15 consecutive minutes within 6 feet of an IDP with COVID-19, numerous brief (approximately 1-minute) encounters that cumulatively exceeded 15 minutes did occur. During his 8-hour shift on July 28, the correctional officer was within 6 feet of an infectious IDP an estimated 22 times while the cell door was open, for an estimated 17 total minutes of cumulative exposure. IDPs wore microfiber cloth masks during most interactions with the correctional officer that occurred outside a cell; however, during several encounters in a cell doorway or in the recreation room, IDPs did not wear masks. During all interactions, the correctional officer wore a microfiber cloth mask, gown, and eye protection (goggles). The correctional officer wore gloves during most interactions. The correctional officer’s cumulative exposure time is an informed estimate; additional interactions might have occurred that were missed during this investigation.”

AS STATED OVER AND OVER SINCE EARLY ON – Its VIRAL LOAD – if you have an infected person in a room they eventually build a viral load in the space by breathing/talking and obviously coughing sneezing…..You can wear a mask and keep the viral load in check from getting into your body – but lets say you TAKE OFF the mask because the person left the room – well that doesn’t change the viral load level in room unless new air is pushed in our you have something deactivating the virus – and now you inhale without your mask well guess what – you will now be infected – you had to air out the room or sterilize it before taking the mask off! When outdoors you don’t need a mask unless the air is stagnant is because as the coal polluters know the solution to pollution is dilution. VIRAL LOAD is concentration – if you are outside the odds of the virus being in the air is much lower given the volume. IF you are really not wanting to get covid wear the mask but everyone will do their own calculation on that risk – I typically do not wear a mask outside.

It is really amazing to still hearing mask deniers – ugh….The Japanese are spending their time to prove mask work at some level for mitigation – perhaps at some point they will show that breathing allows you to live longer. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-japan-masks-idUKKBN2770DF

“A cotton mask reduced viral uptake by the receiver head by up to 40% compared to no mask. An N95 mask, used by medical professionals, blocked up to 90%. However, even when the N95 was fitted to the face with tape, some virus particles still sneaked in.

When a mask was attached to the coughing head, cotton and surgical masks blocked more than 50% of the virus transmission.”

Along with toilet paper and hand sanitizer – add mouthwash to the next run – https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.26514

“A 1% baby shampoo nasal rinse solution inactivated HCoV greater than 99.9% with a 2‐min contact time. Several over‐the‐counter mouthwash/gargle products including Listerine and Listerine‐like products were highly effective at inactivating infectious virus with greater than 99.9% even with a 30‐s contact time. In the current manuscript we have demonstrated that several commonly available healthcare products have significant virucidal properties with respect to HCoV.”

US over 1K