Covid19mathblog.com
Another potential drug for treatment – this is unique in that it is inhaled therefore goes straight to the issue and is focused on the monoclonal antibody – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.14.339150v1.full.pdf
“Delivering the antiviral treatment directly to the lungs has the potential to improve lung bioavailability
and dosing efficiency. As the SARS-CoV-2 Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of the
Spike (S) is increasingly deemed to be a clinically validated target, RBD-specific B cells
were isolated from patients following SARS-CoV-2 infection to derive a panel of fully
human monoclonal antibodies (hmAbs) that potently neutralize SARS-CoV-2. The most
potent hmAb, 1212C2 was derived from an IgM memory B cell, has high affinity for
SARS-CoV-2 RBD which enables its direct inhibition of RBD binding to ACE2. The
1212C2 hmAb exhibits in vivo prophylactic and therapeutic activity against SARS-CoV-2
in hamsters when delivered intraperitoneally, achieving a meaningful reduction in upper
and lower respiratory viral burden and lung pathology.”
“The therapeutic efficacy achieved at an exceedingly low-dose of inhaled
1212C2 supports the rationale for local lung delivery and achieving dose-sparing
benefits as compared to the conventional parenteral route of administration. Taken
together, these results warrant an accelerated clinical development of 1212C2 hmAb
formulated and delivered via inhalation for the prevention and treatment of SARS-CoV-2
infection.”
UK deciding to focus on the prime driver of deaths from covid – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-21/covid-puts-a-spotlight-on-the-food-industry-s-role-in-obesity
“The link between obesity and more severe cases of the virus helped inspire Johnson to ditch his libertarian stance in favor of state intervention over the past several months. His government has proposed curbing junk-food advertising, banning certain promotions on sugary and fatty foods, and forcing cafes and restaurants to slap calorie labels on more products.
The crackdown has given investors in the $3 trillion global food and drink sector reason for pause. As the pandemic throws a spotlight on the importance of a healthy diet, governments beyond the U.K. may choose to impose more anti-obesity measures, further shifting the way makers of sodas, breakfast cereals, chocolate bars, and ready-to-eat meals do business.”
“Companies that make food often derided as “junk” face a number of risks, ranging from sugar taxes and limits on marketing and sales to tobacco-like health warnings and product labeling. This is on top of litigation and reputational threats, as well as the potential for consumers to curb their appetite for unhealthy food. But these companies also have opportunities to adapt to new regulations and tastes. This is why fund managers—especially those with a bent for ESG investing—are reviewing food companies in their portfolios, scrutinizing product ingredients, screening medical literature, and tracking changes to product recipes for signs of progress. They’re also pushing companies for greater information disclosure.”
“Reformulations cost money, however, and selling healthier food for cheap could whack profit margins. This is why many healthier options tend to cater to wealthier parts of society. The challenge is to make less-fattening foods mainstream and accessible to a broader population, says Nick Hampton, chief executive officer at Tate & Lyle Plc, an ingredients maker that says it’s helping companies cut out sugar, fat, and calories. “It can’t just be healthier. It has to be accessible and affordable to people,” he said at the virtual Future Food-Tech Summit in September.”
That is such a cop out – “HEALTHIER options tend to cater to wealthier” – lol – healthier “fancy” options that one can repackage and sell perhaps – but beans, grains, rice, bananas, apples are all the bottom end in terms of food cost. No one has died from eating those items….imagine a world where those items are essentially free and easily accessible – then you have the choice to indulge every so often on other stuff but you always have access to be healthy and you are not marketed constantly and pushed with addictive food items.
We are now accessing the John Hopkins state data for testing – which interestingly is 10 Million less in total test vs. the country total data. Another interesting thing is they have a column People Tested – which we hope means its unique vs. people taking 5 test should not result in 5 people tested. Well N. Dakota must have lots of time and love to be tested as the data shows 98.7% of their population has been tested!
ND own website shows Unique Individual at 277K vs. 791K processed – so even the source of all data being reported (John Hopkins) is somewhat flawed. https://www.health.nd.gov/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases
So it looks like each person gets around 3 test each – hopefully this means confirmed represents only 1 not multiple confirms. How do we know its not just some data oops?
We need to stop testing for just existence – we need to test for infectious levels. This is now data overload and not helping. Can you imagine if they did this with the flu? Do you know the database on flu does not even try to test for asymptomatic people – but they do exist – and can be up to 50%! This is a report back in October 2005! Note some key points. https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2005/cbnreport_103105.html#:~:text=As%20many%20as%2050%25%20of,%E2%80%9Creservoir%E2%80%9D%20for%20the%20virus.
“As many as 50% of infections with normal seasonal flu may be asymptomatic, which may in part be due to pre-existing partial immunity [1]”
“Quarantine, as commonly conceived, is of unproven utility.
Quarantine is commonly meant to convey the large-scale sequestering of persons with the purpose of trying to stop the spread of a contagious disease. It is different from isolation, in which symptomatic persons with a contagious disease are isolated individually so they do not infect others. There are no studies of quarantine in the setting of influenza. Experience with the SARS epidemic suggests that large scale quarantine of a population or geographic location is logistically very difficult [15]. Further, mathematical models of quarantine for flu show that there must be a nearly perfect degree of limitation of travel to be effective [16]. One method of disease containment that might be appropriate during a flu epidemic would be the isolation of persons of a small discreet group, such as people on a contaminated airplane or ship. In such a case, all passengers and all crew members could be confined in isolation for the duration of the incubation period. In this scenario, the isolated individuals would need to be separated form each other to avoid increasing their risk of exposure. Another appropriate use of isolation might involve sequestering healthcare workers exposed to lethal and contagious cases of flu strain (such as a pandemic H5N1 strain); this would no longer make sense once such a disease were circulating widely.”
So comparing Flu fatality and Covid Fatality is already skewed as they have NEVER tried to quantify even think about testing the population for flu. Imagine the deaths from someone who had traced amount of flu virus in the body and then attributed that death partially to the flu – but the person had natural immunity to the flu therefore it didn’t necessarily matter. The point here we need to advance the test vs. just testing for trace – test for the infectious level? – this CAN be done.
School review time – still showing school are not super spreader events relative to other activities – there are better ways to keep schools open and we need to learn from those schools that do it better:
Texas Travis county has just opened up to 90% but before then they were closed – Ft. Bend has always been open and no big change. Harris is removed due to the sporadic confirmation testing data. El Paso the most closed in school – yet their confirmation is rising proving its not school.
FL all counties are no in person – before no difference from Broward vs. Palm and Pinellas who were opened.
CA is the worse sample state San Diego backed down their opening from 20 to 10 but for no real reason.
OH Lorain looks to not be opening schools effectively compared to other other. Lorain has stayed closed but they are also seeing the rise so its not SCHOOL!
In Colorado El Paso and Adams confirmations have risen – but deaths in check. The rise was already occuring for adams and school opening did not noticeably accelerate it. Boulder was closed before their hump and now they have opened but no notice of change in confirmation.
In PA Centere was open and did see a rise but it has since come back down and deaths ticked up only slightly. Dauphin is seeing a rise and the schools are non in person.
No one above 1K – US leads at 856
CA leads death at 89 – one of the most closed in state!
The leader in County is LA with 12 deaths – once again the leading county in closed society – yet its not working!
Added for the big 4 chart in person schooling. Miami-Dade now fully open along with Maricopa….time will tell – LA has been 0
What is going on with LA? No in person school and CA lowest rating in open state
https://www.areavibes.com/los+angeles-ca/crime/
It probably will only get worse not better if they don’t do something! Good news based on their stats total violent crime is down so far YTD compared to last year – however the details are not very supportive- http://lapd-assets.lapdonline.org/assets/pdf/cityprof.pdf
Motor vehicle theft is up 35.5%! Homicide up 24.9% – good news Rape down 23%
France is topping Europe at 27285 confirmations per day on a 7 Day MA. 156 deaths per day
