Covid 11/6/20 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

Lets start with some good news – a non-toxic low cost nasal spray could be the perfect weapon against covid – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.04.361154v1.full.pdf

“We have designed a dimeric lipopeptide fusion inhibitor that blocks this critical first step of

infection for emerging coronaviruses and document that it completely prevents SARS-CoV-2 infection

in ferrets. Daily intranasal administration to ferrets completely prevented SARS-CoV-2 direct-contact

transmission during 24-hour co-housing with infected animals, under stringent conditions that resulted

in infection of 100% of untreated animals. These lipopeptides are highly stable and non-toxic and thus

readily translate into a safe and effective intranasal prophylactic approach to reduce transmission of

SARS-CoV-2”

Lets go warp speed on this! Great idea focus on the connector and block it in a discrete amount of time.

Kind of obvious but quantified odds going to work double odds of getting covid vs telecommuting. Unfortunately didn’t dig deeper to understand locations that are less likely and the corresponding setting in the HVAC and filtration. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6944a4.htm?s_cid=mm6944a4_w

“Adults who received positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 infection were more likely to report exclusively going to an office or school setting in the 2 weeks before illness onset, compared with those who tested negative, even among those working in a profession outside of the critical infrastructure.

\What are the implications for public health practice?

Businesses and employers should promote alternative work site options, such as teleworking, where possible, to reduce exposures to SARS-CoV-2. Where telework options are not feasible, worker safety measures should continue to be scaled up to reduce possible worksite exposures.”

Expanding on our chart of deaths per 100K – we now show Covid-19 death relative to other death per 100K by country. There is obviously a connection with depth of quarantine effectiveness and death from covid. There is a big gray area when policy becomes unenforceable which in many cases in Western country this becomes an issue. However we can see strict countries like New Zealand and Australia has been able to limit covid deaths – but at a significant cost. There is a sweet spot in terms of reaction and outcome. I don’t think 0 death is realistic target else other deaths that could be avoided would be more mitigated so even though it sounds weird to say we do have a level of death that is acceptable in society. Certainly covid response should be more proactive at some level given the contagiousness is not there for many of these other ways to die – but the value of life should be equal. Western countries for sure can see that covid is a big issue – but for the rest of the world that doesn’t seem to be the case even if one extrapolates 5X more covid deaths in many countries.

For the US – clearly covid death is on the high end. However it would seem a lot of this is skewed to death at nursing home and particular focused location NY, NJ, MA. Heart disease and cancer still dominate the deaths in the US.

State view of covid deaths

If we look at UK we can see the seriousness of covid like the US

Same for Spain

Same in France

However in Germany things are different – there are other deaths that are causing much bigger issues than Covid. Perhaps how they prevented covid is certainly a worthy discussion.

Sweden is high as noted by several media – but once again a big nursing home issue – and general quarantine wont necessarily solve the root issue of poor nursing home management.

Poland flu is still higher than covid

Russia has other issues that are higher but flu is lower.

China measurement of Covid death probably very relax compared to all others – it is at level that more people die from skin disease and fires.

S. Korea flu is 20X more of an issue than covid – obviously if they responded with the regular flu as they did covid they would likely reduce regular flu deaths much lower.

Vietnam you cannot even see covid on the chart.

Similar with Thailand – perhaps culture of fans and open windows and natural immunity via BCG?

Singapore you are 70x more likely to die from regular flu

Saudi Arabia regular flu death likely 2X

Nigeria you are 240X more likely to die from regular flu – Nigeria has the flu as the highest cause of death!

S. Africa currently Flu is 3X to covid

Australia regular flu is 2X vs. covid deaths – more likely to die from a fall than covid in Australia.

New Zealand with all the strict measures you are more likely to die from alcohol than covid. 8X more likely to die from regular flu.

India suicide deaths are much greater than covid right now. Standard flu 6X more likely to die from vs. covid.

Mexico is unique because the leading death is Diabetes – Covid is a top 3 – but it is likely connected here.

In Peru covid is the leading cause of death! Perhaps the opposite of China – potential over reporting? The ONLY country in the world that covid is the leading cause of death.