Covid 11/9/20 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

Big news Pfizer vaccine supposedly 90% effective – https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-covid-pfizer-trial-b1719607.html

“Pfizer and BioNTech have said that their coronavirus vaccine may be more than 90 per cent effective, after the two pharmaceutical firms released interim data from their ongoing large-scale trial.

Preliminary analysis, conducted by an independent data monitoring board, looked at 94 infections recorded so far in the vaccine’s phase 3 study, which has enrolled nearly 44,000 people in the US and five other countries.

Of those participants who were infected with Covid-19, it is currently unclear how many had received the vaccine versus those who had been given a placebo. The current efficacy rate, which is much better than most experts expected, implies that no more than eight volunteers will have been inoculated.”

China has tested a lot more than Pfizer (350K vs 44K)– so somewhat surprised they haven’t made more headlines – noted https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/10/covid-10-30-20/ . Going with the math 90% of death are 55 and older – then those dying have more than 1 comorbidity – so if we take care of those than 90% of 90% will be eliminated ….Therefore need 45 million vaccine dosage assuming ~half of 55+ have multiple comorbidity. Vaccine should be distributed to those who are 55 and older with more than 1 comorbidity first then progress forward. Healthcare and nursing home workers should probably also be included.

On not good news – as noted Europe are seeing real issues with deaths rising not just confirmation. Even Germany who has implemented ventilation programs is seeing concerns – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-09/germany-s-severe-covid-19-cases-hit-peak-as-pandemic-intensifies

“Germany has more severe Covid-19 patients than at any point since the pandemic began, underscoring the urgency facing authorities to contain the disease.”

“Merkel’s government imposed a month-long, partial lockdown on Nov. 2 to stem the spread of the virus. The restrictions are designed to limit social contact by closing bars and restaurants, while keeping most businesses operating.

Cases have exceeded levels during the initial wave for weeks, and hospitals are now rapidly filling. At the beginning of October, there were less than 400 Covid-19 cases in German ICUs.

Including other patients, 71% of intensive-care capacity is currently occupied. While Germany has a reserve of about 12,500 beds, including a field hospital at Berlin’s convention center, officials have warned that the country would soon run into a shortage of medical personnel if trends continue.”

Unlike the US they are public healthcare so there is no bias to fill beds or increase occupancy. Also the death data is much harder to fake. This is a real issue.

Nursing home issues in the US continue – why not quarantined? Employees working at multiple homes should be tested akin to sports players? Another nursing home study – https://apnews.com/article/596ef4bfe18313ae72368e2c86e85f27

“An analysis of federal data from 20 states for The Associated Press finds that new weekly cases among residents rose nearly four-fold from the end of May to late October, from 1,083 to 4,274. Resident deaths more than doubled, from 318 a week to 699, according to the study by University of Chicago health researchers Rebecca Gorges and Tamara Konetzka.”

“The administration has allocated $5 billion to nursing homes, shipped nearly 14,000 fast-test machines with a goal of supplying every facility and tried to shore up stocks of protective equipment. But the data call into question the broader White House game plan, one that pushes states to reopen while maintaining that vulnerable people can be cocooned, even if the virus rebounds around them.”

““Trying to protect nursing home residents without controlling community spread is a losing battle,” said Konetzka, a nationally recognized expert on long-term care. “Someone has to care for vulnerable nursing home residents, and those caregivers move in and out of the nursing home daily, providing an easy pathway for the virus to enter.””

“Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities account for about 1% of the U.S. population, but represent 40% of COVID-19 deaths, according to the COVID Tracking Project.”

““Many times, the likely causes of nursing home outbreaks are simply nursing homes failing to comply with basic infection control rules,” the statement said.”

“Walkingstick said he believes the U.S. has gotten better at saving the lives of COVID-19 patients, but not at keeping the virus out of nursing homes.”

I certainly don’t agree with Dr. Konetzka conclusion to push the community spread over just fixing the way nursing homes are managed – this is an easy cop out for the nursing home. IF the NBA can isolate – nursing homes should do it – and we should be willing to pay for it if need be. Govt just doled out $5Billion for nursing home test – how much is staff paid? 100K a year? That’s 50,000 staff paid for a year? Have staff live there on a 2 week in 2 week out? Testing on transition? Adapt all the HVAC units at the nursing home to bring in fresh air.

NYC ventilating schools – https://champ.gothamist.com/champ/gothamist/news/nycs-pandemic-ventilation-plan-winter-public-schools-involves-space-heaters-air-purifiers-and-lots-layers

“Following complaints from NYC public school teachers about uncomfortably chilly temperatures in some classrooms, the city Department of Education has put forth a plan intended to keep classrooms warm even when windows must remain open to slow the spread of COVID-19. The plan will include air purifiers, space heaters, and filters to ensure proper airflow, in addition to keeping windows open in rooms with poor ventilation.

The approach will vary depending on the needs of each school, according to a three-page memo drafted by the DOE and obtained by Gothamist. The plan states that 13,700 more MERV-13 filters will be ordered and installed in school HVAC systems to help keep the virus out of the air in classrooms. These filters — adding to an already existing supply — are ordered in accordance with guidelines set forth by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which recommends high-quality filters to combat COVID-19.”

“The memo also recommended windows continue to stay open for ventilation, in accordance with CDC guidelines. In warmer climates, the practice of keeping windows open to reduce the risk of COVID’s spread year-round would work. But in New York City — the only major city in the country to have offered blended learning — keeping windows open is unsustainable even if the heat is on, according to teachers who have already felt the brunt of this method.”

“Before schools reopened, the DOE dispatched School Ventilation Action Teams to assess whether the city’s 56,000 classrooms could be safely occupied. Roughly 95% of the classrooms were approved for occupancy following a CDC-recommended tissue test to assess airflow. Classrooms with open windows — but no proper HVAC systems — were still approved for occupancy.”

Looks like more energy usage for sure ….where is the push for public and office buildings?

Deaths under 1K ….its Sunday reporting…the amazing stat was confirmation for France and US above 100K!