Covid19mathblog.com

Well looks like the people better be careful what they wish for – https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/11/biden-covid-advisor-says-us-lockdown-of-4-to-6-weeks-could-control-pandemic-and-revive-economy.html

“Dr. Michael Osterholm, a coronavirus advisor to President-elect Joe Biden, said a nationwide lockdown would help bring the virus under control in the U.S.”

“"The problem with the March-to-May lockdown was that it was not uniformly stringent across the country. For example, Minnesota deemed 78 percent of its workers essential," they wrote in The New York Times. "To be effective, the lockdown has to be as comprehensive and strict as possible."

On Wednesday, Osterholm said such a lockdown would help the country bring the virus under control, "like they did in New Zealand and Australia." Epidemiologists have repeatedly pointed to New Zealand, Australia and parts of Asia that have brought the number of daily new cases to under 10 as an example of how to contain the virus.”

“On the current trajectory, Osterholm said the U.S. is headed for dark days before a vaccine becomes available. He said health-care systems across the country are already overwhelmed in places such as El Paso, Texas, where local officials have already closed businesses and the federal government is sending resources to handle a surge in deaths caused by Covid-19.

Osterholm said the country needs leadership. The president-elect is up to the task of providing that leadership, Osterholm said, adding that it could also come from local and state officials or those in the medical community. He referenced the fireside chats broadcast over radio during former President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s terms, through which Roosevelt addressed the country on issues ranging from the Great Depression to World War II.

"People don’t want to hear that El Paso isn’t an isolated event. El Paso, in many instances, will become the norm," he said. "I think that the message is: How do we get through this? We need FDR moments right now. We need fireside chats. We need somebody to tell America, ‘This is what in the hell is going to happen.’"

They were so strict in Melbourne they had collateral damage from deaths from infants not being able to go hospitals they typically go to – https://fee.org/articles/four-newborns-die-after-being-denied-heart-surgery-because-of-covid-travel-restrictions/

The country is not uniform in issue – we still believe in local and state powers – or do we? Are we giving up state rights and going federalism? Covid is not uniform in counties…

Jumping the gun on El Paso – no demographic and social analysis done to understand what is happening in the border town in TX – don’t you need to know the root of the problem before jumping into a solution? Fatality rates still amazingly low.

Last 30 days county confirmation/capita with state avg temps above 1.2% – you can see the counties outside Maricopa and LA are below 60 for state avg temp.

On the other end of the spectrum – in order to limit the amount of counties limited to 1+ Million population counties and those less than 0.5% last 30 days confirmation per capita – You can see no one below 50F other than King Washington. Do we treat these counties the same as the above counties given significant differences?

From the data it does seem quite clear that HVAC is a key to help mitigate covid spread – being quarantined in homes might actually increase confirmations if people get together. Can you stop social/family/friends from gathering?

Seems like in the beginning when everyone was developing new test that would test you easily (no nose) and get results in minutes – well where did they all go – never made it to reality – well the news du jour is vaccine –

Russian Vaccine – https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03209-0 https://www.9news.com.au/world/scientists-cautious-as-russia-says-early-data-shows-sputnik-v-coronavirus-vaccine-is-92-per-cent-effective/760b44ae-f49c-4699-9d6f-de1bc159b1f3

92% – 2% better than Pfizer

“Pfizer’s is based on a messenger RNA platform, a never-before-approved vaccine technology, while RDIF’s is based on an inactivated adenoviral vector.

One advantage of adenoviral vaccines is that they do not need to be stored and transported in extremely cold temperatures, according to scientists.

But Dr Hotez cautions that no matter the vaccine make-up, drug makers risk getting ahead of themselves by making efficacy claims at this point.

"I would say neither announcement should have been made. That’s not how we do this." he said.

"The way we do this is you submit the dossier to the regulators. The regulators authorise it, either authorise it or approve it. And then you go ahead, and you can release that information to the public with the clinical trial data ready to go."”

I have to agree with Dr Hotez- seems like more of a popularity contest vs. a scientific inquiry. Both tested on very small sample.

Not to be not outdone – Moderna – https://fortune.com/2020/11/12/moderna-stock-covid-vaccine-trial-pfizer/

“The bet among top experts in the field is that Moderna’s therapy, which uses a similar mRNA technology to Pfizer’s, will likely prove to be highly effective, perhaps mirroring Pfizer’s announcement earlier this week that its shot appears to be more than 90% effective.

“Overall I would expect similar results” in Moderna’s trial, said Drew Weissman, an immunologist and mRNA expert at the University of Pennsylvania who helped develop key modifications used in mRNA vaccines.

“It is hard to imagine how it would be much different,” according to Weissman, whose lab receives research funding from BioNTech SE, the company partnering with Pfizer on its vaccine.”

Both Pfizer and Moderna – requires massive refrigeration and 2 doses! – this makes it somewhat impractical for mass dissemination. Anyway lets hope it works and not empty promises like all these testing discoveries….

High deaths in US and France

Another first GA leads in deaths at 542! Confirmation continue for IL and TX

If there is anyplace that needs to lockdown its Cook Il

Very strange even though GA lead in deaths it was very dispersed no county greater than 30

LA and Maricopa represent multiple FPS which created an issue in calculating per capita confirmation. This is fixed and now LA 3.27% and Maricopa 4%. El Paso continues to grow now at 8%. Cook IL now surpassed 4.4%.

El Paso TX is still faring will in terms of fatality rate – lowest out of the current set – only 1% death/confirmed. Cook on the other end is the highest at 2.5% but at least declining.

Fatality rate in Europe similar bucket range from Italy at 4% to Norway at 1%

As bleak as US may look per reporting comparison by country – if we look on a region basis US is faring better than Europe. The worse is Central America. The best is Asia.