Covid19mathblog.com
Some progress on the home testing front – https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-11-17/fda-allows-1st-rapid-virus-test-that-gives-results-at-home
“The FDA granted emergency authorization to the 30-minute test kit from Lucira Health, a California manufacturer.
The company’s test allows users to swab themselves to collect a nasal sample. The sample is then swirled in a vial that plugs into a portable device that interprets the results and displays whether the person tested positive or negative for the coronavirus.”
As we decide to make our decision to get together for Thanksgiving to weddings to parties – lets get the facts and do what we can to shift the odds into your favor. It is very important to realize covid deaths are real. You can see comparing deaths from this year (NOT DONE) to last year deaths – Covid is a top 10 reason of death even if you half the numbers for potential overcounting – and its consistent no matter what state – Covid deaths are big – only a few are in the lower end range.
CA
CO
FL
Even Idaho – you can cut in half and still would be top 10
IL
LA – top death
Maine looks pretty safe….
MA Top
NY Top
ND
OH
OR not too bad
PA – once again even half would still be in top 10
TX
Wy not too bad
Fact number 2 – deaths are disproportionate to the elder – once again no matter what state – and no matter what timeline – even the current deaths which in theory have been spread to all age groups show deaths are still for the elder
CA
CO even much less youth impacted than nationwide stat – likely healthier and more outdoor exposure
NY
ND just started seeing some deaths under 55
OH youth deaths under nationwide stat by almost 2X
TX youth death under nationwide stat
Youth impact beyond death is still limited in data but there are certainly a fair number of scary longterm impact that you would still want to do what you can to not get it. For the younger people – do you want to be the conduit that kills the elder? The elder – do you want to cause the youth to experience life of quarantine and miss out on key events in their lives? These are the risk/reward we must personally answer – many who roll the dice will be fine. Once again IF you plan to get together – you need to be in a ventilated space to reduce viral load. You can wear a mask to help reduce viral load. You can open windows blow fresh air into the area. Time is not on your side IF anyone is infected in your group. You can run air cleaners – I use Air Free. You can also make your body as healthy as possible – eat whole foods – take vitamin D, C, zinc and melatonin. There is no certainty in life but we do have some individual accountability and perceived control of reducing odds of infection and the spreading of covid.
Both US and France above 1K deaths. US confirmation continue to soar.
TX leader of death – IL leader of confirmation.
Again Cook County leads confirmation – LA leads in death. Though TX leads in death totals – largely from multiple counties. Clark County Nevada actually second place in death.
Lots of dispersion in the map.
Finally signs of Cook County IL flattening out in confirmation – still the peak is almost 2X LA and Miami-Dade
Interesting to note Missing China from the list and South Asian country other than Philippines from counts of confirmation for the last 30 days.
