Covid 11/20/20

Covid19mathblog.com

One of the most important papers in the Covid chapters. This goes back to many discussions noted here – Tcells. They used T-SPOT® Discovery SARS-CoV-2 kits to evaluate people with infection This answers or at least indicates why someone living in the same household with covid can test negative or even have only minor symptoms – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.02.20222778v1.full.pdf

Just going to the conclusion

“Overall, this study suggests that serology may underestimate the working age population at lower risk

of clinical SARS-CoV-2 infection, something which might impact outbreak kinetics (29) and which has

been suspected on epidemiological grounds (30). We would speculate that the declining number of

individuals with high levels of SARS-CoV-2 responsive T cells with increasing age may explain higher

illness incidence and severity in older age (1-4). Intriguingly, our data indicate individual level risk

stratification may be possible using T-cell assays, including the standardised assay kits used in this

study which, being in the same format as the widely used T-SPOT®.TB tests for latent TB infection,

would be readily deployable at scale (24).”

WE need to get this test ASAP – please operation warp speed. Just by taking this test you can see if you are likely to need to quarantine/take the vaccine etc…

Looks like remdesivir lost a supporter – WHO recommends against – https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/who-recommends-against-the-use-of-remdesivir-in-covid-19-patients

“The evidence suggested no important effect on mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, time to clinical improvement, and other patient-important outcomes.”

Europe is in full phase 2 – they have broken the spring daily death figures – US is still below spring

A crazy confirmation day for the US 188K – with over 2K deaths

IL leads confirmation whereas TX leads death

The leading county in death is a border county El Paso TX with 37. Cook IL again leads confirmation

Big dispersion in death reporting. TX leads largely due to dispersion.

Good news even though Cook IL confirmation are 2X they were in the spring – daily deaths are still half the spring numbers.

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