Covid19mathblog.com
It is all about the vaccine now.
FDA reports intense symptoms after second shot for the Pfizer vaccine – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccine-side-effects-trials.html
"The Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine is both safe and effective, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In a report released Tuesday morning, the FDA indicated that it could greenlight the country’s first Covid-19 inoculation within days.
If Pfizer’s shot is granted an emergency use authorization, or EUA, the immunizations — which are administered in two doses about three weeks apart — could start as soon as next week.”
“One Pfizer trial participant told CNBC that after the second shot, he woke up with chills, shaking so hard he cracked a tooth. “It hurt to even just lay in my bed sheet,” he said.
Others experienced headaches and fatigue.
The FDA said that while side effects of the Pfizer vaccine are common, there are “no specific safety concerns identified that would preclude issuance of an EUA.”
“Moderna said in August it is charging between $32 and $37 per dose for its vaccine and would perhaps offer a discount if it is bought in bulk. Pfizer’s, on the other hand, is more affordable. It is reportedly $20 per dose.”
Oxford vaccine makes it to the final stage report – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext
“This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort)”
“Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0–75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4–97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8–80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3–4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation.”
This is probably not the best way to promote the vaccine of choice – Russia notes to abstain from alcohol for 2 months – https://nypost.com/2020/12/09/no-drinking-for-two-months-after-covid-19-vaccine-russia-says/
“Russian officials are warning citizens to avoid alcohol for two months after receiving the country’s COVID-19 vaccine — tough-to-swallow news for one of the world’s heaviest drinking countries.
The warning came from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova, who said in an interview that Russians will have to observe extra precautions during the 42 days it takes for the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine to become effective.
“[Russians] will have to refrain from visiting crowded places, wear face masks, use sanitizers, minimize contacts and refrain from drinking alcohol or taking immunosuppressant drugs,” Golikova told TASS News Agency.”
Its not all about covid vaccine – a universal flu vaccine coming – phase 1 done – https://newatlas.com/medical/phase1-human-trial-universal-flu-vaccine-promising-results/
“Promisingly, the study found the HA stalk antibodies elicited by the vaccine persisted for at least 18 months after the trial had been completed. This suggests the vaccine offers the potential for long-lasting protection against all strains of influenza, removing the need for annual vaccinations.”
“The researchers are cautious to stress this is only a Phase 1 human trial, and it is not designed to evaluate whether the vaccine protects against disease or infection. Instead, these preliminary studies focus on safety and initial immune response. But from this perspective the data so far is significantly promising, offering up all the signs to support further development of a universal influenza vaccine.”
Politicians need to come to earth along with their scientific advisors. Rules that cannot be enforced are better off not being made. The blanket statements for closure doesn’t make sense. Why cant a store be designed to do more ventilation than others? IF anything they should have standards such as volume of air exchange or CO2 readings to deem a place more or less safe. How do a localized contagion impact counties who are removed from the issue? https://reason.com/2020/12/08/southern-california-sheriffs-rebel-over-gavin-newsoms-new-stay-at-home-order/
“Over the past few days, the sheriffs of Los Angeles, Orange, and Riverside Counties have said that their deputies will not be issuing tickets or making arrests of people violating the governor’s latest coronavirus restrictions, which went into effect in southern California on Sunday.
"I want to stay away from businesses that are trying to comply the best they can," said Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva to FOX11’s Bill Melugin. "They bent over backwards to modify their entire operation to conform to these current health orders, and then they have the rug yanked out from under them, that’s a disservice. I don’t want to make their lives any more miserable."
Villanueva has said that enforcing the business closures and other restrictions in the governor’s new order, which was announced last Thursday, is the job of Los Angeles County’s Health Department. L.A. Sheriff’s deputies will focus their efforts on "super spreader" events, he said.”
US continues to show large confirmations along with deaths. Fatality rate looks to be converging around 2%.
Last 30 days have been astounding spike in confirmation worldwide with US confirmation leading the world by a significant amount. Eastern Europe countries are not looking too good either.
The last 30 days US deaths over 45K. Italy, Poland, France, UK, and Spain is still doing worse than US on a per capita basis.
Ohio leads in confirmation with Michigan leading in deaths. (colder states – just snowed there last week).
LA leads in both death and confirmation. Philadelphia second place in deaths
Still when we just look at the last 30 days the issue is quite focus to Cook IL, LA CA and Maricopa AZ and a border county El Paso TX.
LA confirmation is out there and for sure something needs to be done. However this shouldn’t be a state or federal issue. The local officials who “should” know how and why this is spreading should implement things that would curtail or assist in reducing this explosion of confirmation. San Francisco county is a mere fraction of LA – they need to learn from San Fran and implement into LA.
