Covid19mathblog.com

Probably the most disappointing covid outcome looking back (beyond the deaths and confirmation) – was all the press on testing and new test that everyone was making and yet here we are still many have to wait days for results. And now we have an OTC test – https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/09/health/fda-over-counter-covid-test/index.html

“The US Food and Drug Administration has granted an emergency use authorization for the first non-prescription, over-the-counter Covid-19 test kit for at-home use.

The LabCorp Pixel COVID-19 Test Home Collection Kit allows anyone 18 and older to buy the kit and collect nasal swab samples at home, the FDA said in a news release Wednesday. The samples are then sent to a LabCorp facility for testing.

Positive or invalid results are delivered back to the consumer by phone or through a healthcare provider. Users will be notified by email or through an online portal if results are negative.”

“After buying the test, users register the kit on the website and follow the included instructions.

"Test results are securely delivered to the consumer via the Pixel by LabCorp portal," LabCorp said. "A healthcare provider will counsel consumers who test positive to assist with healthcare treatment and actions."”

From site:

“Due to the surge in COVID-19 cases, kits are currently reserved for individuals who are experiencing symptoms, have been exposed to someone with COVID-19, or who have been recommended for testing by a healthcare provider, public health department, or contact investigator.

We’ll send you an at-home collection kit to collect your nasal swab sample and ship it back to our lab. Our lab will test your sample for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease (also called COVID-19), a respiratory illness.

You must be 18 or older to take this test. The average time to deliver results is currently 1-2 days from when your sample is received at the lab. Our labs process samples seven days a week. Check with your local FedEx for pick up and drop off schedules.

Please note this test does not detect antibodies or immunity; it is designed to determine active infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. For more information on antibody testing visit LabCorp.com.”

Really several days….where are these test that were touted in the beginning…5 min test etc….

Vaccinated – still infectious to other – https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/361327?

“Experts consulted by The New York Times , give indications about the possibility that people who receive the doses can have the virus without developing symptoms, transmitting it to others silently.

The new vaccines against Covid-19 Moderna and Pfizer contain a high effectiveness, the first is 94.1% and the second with 95%, for the prevention of this disease. However, there is still ignorance about the solution to avoid the spread of the virus, because in both tests only how many people who were vaccinated became ill with coronavirus were registered , therefore, the possibility that some were have been infected without developing symptoms, which could cause the virus to spread silently, especially if you don’t wear a mask and keep in close contact with other people.

In the event that immunized people can spread the virus inadvertently, people who have not yet been vaccinated are at risk, especially if the safe distance and the use of a mask are not respected.”

Don’t miss the second dose of the vaccine as effectiveness drops by nearly half! – https://bgr.com/2020/12/09/coronavirus-vaccine-fda-pfizer-two-doses-vs-one/

“Commenting on the matter, Pfizer executive Dr. William C. Gruber told The New York Times that the efficacy of the first dose is probably about 52% compared to 95% after the second dose.”

Yesterday was a very somber day in US statistics – over 3.1K deaths. Confirmations are very high still over 220K

The US distribution of death was very dispersed with TX leading at 285 CA leads confirmation.

There was so much death dispersion I changed the chart from 10+ death to 20+ death. Once again even though TX leads death its not really a hotspot – TX doesn’t even show up in top 5 county. You have Cook , LA, Providence, Maricopa,El Paso Co, San Diego!

Amazing dispersion of death….

The deaths have not change their demographics – it continues to point to those older – even though we know the infections have been very dispersed by this point.

We have surpassed peaked deaths from Spring but it has not necessarily gone exponential as seen in the past flu epidemics. We are sitting at 2% fatality. We could see a max total of 600K deaths IF trend continue with confirmation rate and fatality rate. A more realistic number is likely 400K – currently we are 289K. The optimistic bottom end number is to assume some double dipping in confirmations therefore those rates are slightly exaggerated – plus age demographic should start flattening out at some level – 360K. Still this would average ~1K deaths per day for the winter.

CA, PA, MI,IL leading this winter hump.

Asia its all about India, Iran, and Turkey

Unlike the US the winter regions are the same as in the spring for Europe – Italy, France plus the Eastern Europe now being impacted creating this larger and longer hump.

Central/S. America doesn’t have a second hump yet on deaths – but they really never came off either like in US and Europe

Total worldwide deaths per day is almost double the peak in spring.