Covid19mathblog.com

Follow the science mantra – seems to only work when science supports your position…. NY has banned indoor dining starting Monday – yet the data shows it’s not the main source of spread (1.4%) and likely will just drive the main source more – household gathering (74%). What is even worse about these policies once again they ASSUME all areas are the same! We know for a fact not all areas are the same – some places have accessible open windows – some places CAN or HAVE invested in fresh air HVAC system – some places can install Air Free or HEPA filters – etc…Government should implement guidelines and make business show customers the implemented guidelines from Ventilation stats via CO2 readings to equipment checklist and then let the consumer make their own risk/reward particularly when the stat is this low – if it was high it would point out to more serious enforcement. Seriously what is going on in this world. Have none of these politician never opened a business and put their entire savings into something – so they can just shut business down without any thought of collateral damage?

https://ny.eater.com/2020/12/11/22169841/restaurants-and-bars-coronavirus-spread-data-new-york

Then we get these papers which suggest restaurants are superspreader https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100052172&utm_content=deeplink

– but I don’t know why they don’t spend the money and time to differentiate restaurants that are designed well vs. restaurants that are not. Banning all restaurants as they are all the same seems like a lack of science. In addition this paper is really BS in terms of highlighting issue and the interpretation from media is AWFUL – https://www.livescience.com/amp/covid-19-superspreading-venues-restaurants.htm – The heading of the article is so misleading! They should have said in terms of Points of Interest locations restaurants and gyms are superspreaders – but this is EXCLUDING POI of home and social gathering. Imagine if they actually included the homes as POI they would have to tell the public they track them in their homes – but they were very careful to avoid showing that in this study. By shear volume of POI of course restaurants would top the list. Still its garbage interpretation of data….the data is not useless but the context being used is BS. They should delve into which venues POI are better and why – then take that knowledge and make guidelines and facilities strive to those best practices.

Back to below 3K death in US

Leading death MI and CA out there in terms of confirmation by 3X to second place

Banning wrong things would produce a boomerang of results which is what we are seeing in LA. LA leading confirmations by multiples vs all counties in US. Also leading death.

It is an interesting geographical dispersion SW and NE

LA and Cook still not turning the corner on death stats