Perhaps I should give Japan a silver star before a gold star given the limited testing per capita (0.13%) we have from the country (S. Korea 1.2% US 1.75%). It is very suspicious how low deaths and confirmations are. Is the strategy is if you don’t see it – it isn’t there?
Japan is not in many of my plots because I had to put limit on how many lines I show on the chart. Previously I had 500 deaths as the limit. Japan is still hasn’t even crossed that for such a large population and dense area – really amazing if it is right.
Then I get articles such as – https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/29/national/japans-health-care-system-teeters-brink-coronavirus-takes-toll-hospitals/#.XqrEx2lOkwA
NY would only dream of being close to Japan deaths and confirmations….mind you this is a whole country vs. a state (death 413 vs. 23477) so it amazes me that they are in severe panic as noted in the articles above – or are the numbers wrong and/or articles all hype? They have seen a recent jump in confirmation and death but barely touching the scale of NY. Deaths are not even really accelerating for the last week (brown line below).
I like this article as it highlights what is missing in all the hype of how Covid-19 is spreading and being tested in various environment – do we really care if Covid-19 is tested and exist in extremely low levels that would never infect us? VIRAL LOAD is important.
https://www.alternet.org/2020/04/new-study-reveals-the-best-conditions-for-spreading-coronavirus/
“Kasten said one reason a study like this fails to get to the bottom of the mystery around coronavirus and aerosol transmission is because they still do not know exactly how many viral particles are needed to infect a person. Indeed, figuring out such a thing might not be ethical, at least on human subjects.
“Unless people want to volunteer for experiments where increasingly large amounts of virus are shoved up their nose until they become infected, the exact precise number isn’t known and won’t be except through animal studies,” Kasten explained. “Instead it is estimated from the other ‘baddy’ human coronaviruses, and then assumed to be lower, since this one is much more transmissible.”
For instance, a similar virus also in the coronavirus family, the MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) coronavirus, is known to require somewhere between 1,000 and 10,0000 viral particles in order to infect a person. Since SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible, Willem van Schaik, a professor of microbiology at the University of Birmingham, estimates that the number of particles needed to become infected is in the high hundreds or low thousands.
Likewise, it is unknown if aerosols are even “hardy” enough to generate an infection.”
“This is all to say that just because aerosols are being detected doesn’t mean they can infect you.”
“Interestingly, there are more studies that suggest transmission is more likely to happen indoors, not outdoors. A study in Japan concluded that “the odds that a primary case transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment.”
Closing state park and beaches – when really its not the areas that are the issue – it’s the closeness of people you are concerned about – well make that the rule – or is it just so unruly to be able to police? IF you live on the beach can you go on the beach? Wasn’t there a move in CA to restrict beach access before covid?
Sunlight & ventilation are both great elements to be which a beach offers. People limit people going into the stores – could you not do that at beach entrances?
WHO praises Sweden – skeptical NY Post – https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-lauds-sweden-as-model-for-resisting-coronavirus-lockdown/amp/
Once again too soon to know but they could be very right IF the second hump is inevitable and the virus is a lot more prevalent than anyone believes and no obvious cure or vaccine in sight – which as of right now the data sure is pointing to that.
I was not aware of the stark differences of approach by NZ and Australia – https://www.insider.com/new-zealands-economy-could-be-twice-as-bad-as-australias-2020-4?
“The two countries took some similar measures to combat the coronavirus including closing their borders to foreigners and enforcing quarantines for people returning home. But the rest of their approaches differed.
In New Zealand, for its month-long "Alert Level 4" lockdown, people could not interact with anyone outside of their households. Supermarkets and pharmacies were the only places still operating. Takeaways have only begun to be delivered earlier in the week as the lockdown was eased to "Alert Level 3."
In Australia, bars and restaurants stayed open the entire time to provide takeaways. Australia kept its construction and mining industries running. People could get haircuts, meet friends for coffees, or use babysitters, according to The Guardian.”
New Zealand’s stricter lockdown meant most people could not trade, Auckland-based economist Shamubeel Eaqub told The Guardian, which caused a much wider impact. His firm Sense Partners estimated during "Alert Level 4" lockdown electronic spending was half what it normally is.
The data shows Australia the likely winner in terms of balancing economy and approach. Population density here is likely misleading. Best to aggregate city population density – given Australia vast deserts.
Took a long time to confirm obesity is a big indicator – I have been noticing this in the data for at least the last month – https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200429/obesity-new-risk-factors-for-young-covid-patients
“Patients with a BMI of 30-34 were twice as likely to get admitted to the hospital or to be admitted to acute care.
Patients with a BMI of 35 or higher were twice as likely to be admitted to the hospital and three times as likely to end up in the intensive care unit.”
The economic dire situation could have been reduced with better food system and self-discipline. As I noted before Thomas Paine said “…while government is there only to keep man from indulging his vices.” Clearly one of our vices is food selection – not sure why not better oversight of feeding poison to the public. My guess it’s the $$$$. Stop addicting foods reduce earnings….
A silver lining to this issue is a revamping of the food selection for the public and perhaps a personal incentive by the public to be healthier. This will be a lot more impactful than forcing people to stay inside and wear mask (still pro mask – just ordering the effectiveness and overall value to society).
Speaking of money – Remdesivir back on the offensive – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext?
The results certainly are not 1000X better – its good news but is it really that effective. The first few words certainly doesn’t build a lot of confidence – but that’s just me…could we say the same thing about many other things? “Although not statistically significant, patients receiving remdesivir had a numerically faster time to clinical improvement than those receiving placebo among patients with symptom duration of 10 days or less (hazard ratio 1·52 [0·95–2·43]). Adverse events were reported in 102 (66%) of 155 remdesivir recipients versus 50 (64%) of 78 placebo recipients. Remdesivir was stopped early because of adverse events in 18 (12%) patients versus four (5%) patients who stopped placebo early.”
Fake/scare news confirmed –
“Tests in recovered patients in S. Korea found false positives, not reinfections, experts say”
On the fake/scare news front – the man made famous per trump and HCQ – who was a “smart” engineer that took fish cleaner per president statement – https://freebeacon.com/coronavirus/police-investigating-death-of-arizona-man-from-chloroquine-phosphate/amp/?
Will any of these media companies get in trouble for racing for a story?
Fake/scare news accountability – read the headline here 4/13/20 – https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/south-dakotas-governor-resisted-ordering-people-to-stay-home-now-it-has-one-of-the-nations-largest-coronavirus-hot-spots/2020/04/13/5cff90fe-7daf-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html#click=https://t.co/kBdZHmhDqF
“South Dakota’s governor resisted ordering people to stay home. Now it has one of the nation’s largest coronavirus hot spots.”
Tables below as of yesterday….Well I guess I don’t know what Largest or Hot or even Spot – means….SD best death per pop death per confirmed – they have tested more than MI and TX on per capita….Confirmed per pop is 2nd highest but population is the lowest by multiples….Right now being confirmed is not a bad thing if you are going for some immunity – it’s the death number we need to be concerned about.
Highest death county in state
Awful reporting…what a waste of time….
Daily update crazy change for UK 4421 new deaths – surpassing US by almost 2X 2612
NY continues to decline in terms of positive/tested even though confirmation is rising!
Not the best chart update today. PA surging back up. NY plateau vs declining. South Carolina spiking. FL,GA,TX OR NV uptick.
As noted above something is going on in UK death counts. Now highest death/confirmed rate in the major country category 15.7%. almost 2X NY.
Lots of discussion with a surge in Asia – relatively speaking I don’t see the surge in the data. Surge relative to their low numbers certainly plausible – but not in the scale to the rest of world from the data we have. Note UK is showing what a surge looks like.
