Covid 12/26/20 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

Well China has fared quite well with Covid – but now they have another virus outbreak which is a “common” virus – norovirus – https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/362121?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=related&utm_campaign=syndication

“The situation in China is worrying. An outbreak of norovirus was reported last week, affecting 50 children at a school in Zingong, Sichuan province. More cases have also been reported in the rest of the country, so they remain vigilant to contain further spread.

According to data from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) , about one in five cases of acute gastroenteritis are caused by norovirus.”

Napoleon Dynamite might have been on to something – https://scitechdaily.com/mini-antibodies-produced-by-a-llama-and-isolated-by-neuroscientists-could-prevent-covid-19-infection/

“National Institutes of Health researchers have isolated a set of promising, tiny antibodies, or “nanobodies,” against SARS-CoV-2 that were produced by a llama named Cormac.”

“A nanobody is a special type of antibody naturally produced by the immune systems of camelids, a group of animals that includes camels, llamas, and alpacas. On average, these proteins are about a tenth the weight of most human antibodies. This is because nanobodies isolated in the lab are essentially free-floating versions of the tips of the arms of heavy chain proteins, which form the backbone of a typical Y-shaped human IgG antibody. These tips play a critical role in the immune system’s defenses by recognizing proteins on viruses, bacteria, and other invaders, also known as antigens.

Because nanobodies are more stable, less expensive to produce, and easier to engineer than typical antibodies, a growing body of researchers, including Mr. Esparza and Dr. Brody, have been using them for medical research. For instance, a few years ago scientists showed that humanized nanobodies may be more effective at treating an autoimmune form of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, a rare blood disorder, than current therapies.”

How many will take the vaccine is an interesting question….if we look at the demographics we can probably note how many should and then discount from there….First of we know deaths are for sure a desired avoidance and most deaths are elderly….

Of course we also know long-term effects of Covid is something not worth risking which is amounting to around 10% of those that get Covid. Not awful odds but still some will see a risk/reward value to take vaccine even if death is removed from the equation.

Then lets be honest if you are in rural America and really don’t interact with people there is not much incentive to be the first to get the vaccine – risk/reward seemed skewed. So really we are talking about areas with decent population density and interaction. From a 330Million – you quickly drop to 200Million pool.

Then screening for comorbidity – which we know 90%+ of covid deaths have more than 1 comorbidity then we can screen more population out. Increase comorbidity is a function of age to….so if the average of 60% has more than 1 comorbidity that is skewed to the age group so that those under 45 under likely only around 20%.

So in total I suspect 204 Million *0.38 (45+)*.95 (comorbidity factor)+204 Million*0.62(45-)*.2=73.6+19=92.6 Million then subtract the 18 million that already have gotten covid – 74 million SHOULD take the vaccine over the next few months (22%)…then perhaps from that knowledge and IF no material impact from the vaccine occurs then I suspect at most a doubling of that figure….this puts around 148/330millon = 45%….if adverse effects occur I suspect will stay around 30-40% of the population as risk/reward is not likely shifted enough to cause an increase of vaccination. IF rules are made and freedom given for shot we can see this number much higher.

To put this in perspective flu vaccinations are not that high in the lower age groups. Even the 65+ is not as high as I assume in the calculation above….Obviously if it wasn’t for the knowledge of the 18 million that already had it the overall covid vaccination would be higher than regular flu but given the amount of testing and “knowledge” I think the amount of vaccinated will be near the regular flu levels with elder higher and youth lower.