We have 19 states opening up. We should expect confirmations to rise – the virus is not eliminated. What we need to track is deaths and hospitalization. If people manage their risk/reward and we somewhat smart quarantined we can keep the health system form overwhelming – therefore deaths at some level should not rise obsessively. The message should be focused on telling people who /what type of people are at risk and have those testing metrics available (e.g. obesity, diabetes, etc…).

Once again I would not want to focus on daily death reporting as it seems too volatile. A 7 day moving average smooths out the operations of reporting.

So far the 7 Day MA deaths for those states nothing sticks out.

I don’t have hospitalization for all the states – of the 19 only 11 states. Only states with potential spike is Idaho and Tennessee. Utah has been climbing since Mid April.

Sunday updates are generally the lowest numbers – 1313 incremental death for the US – New York leading the way with 510.

Deaths are still very East centric.

Testing in the US is way up there – its not about just testing now- now have to smart test. Mexico is likely going to start showing some very bad numbers. The orange line spike was Ecuador – and they recently showed a large spike in deaths.

Brazil looks to be on a plateau now. Ecuador and Peru still rising. India continues to rise in death. Japan is seeing a small rise bit not past their previous peak daily death changes.