Covid19mathblog.com

It has begun – covid vaccine ID cards – I wonder so if you have officially gotten Covid that wont count need to get vaccine? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9322633/amp/New-Yorkers-flash-COVID-19-passport-enter-sports-arenas-theaters.html

“New Yorkers will have to flash a ‘COVID-19 passport’ showing negative test result or a vaccination if they want to see a movie or other events under pilot program

Gov Andrew Cuomo announced initiative, dubbed ‘Excelsior Pass,’ on Tuesday

Pass, developed in partnership with IBM, is said to be ‘proven, secure technology [that] will confirm an individual’s vaccination or recent negative COVID test’

Initial phase of pilot testing started February 27 with Brooklyn Nets game at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn and continued Tuesday at Madison Square Garden “

“’Similar to a mobile airline boarding pass, individuals will be able to either print out their pass or store it on their smartphones using the Excelsior Pass’s "Wallet App",’ a statement from the governor’s office reads.

Each pass will have a ‘secure QR code, which venues will scan using a companion app to confirm someone’s COVID health status’.”

S. African strain expanding and impacting as shown in Israel – https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-fears-south-african-covid-strain-spreading-beyond-control-1.9587065

“Israeli efforts to stop the spread of the South African variant of the coronavirus, which included the shut down of Ben-Gurion International Airport last month, have brought little results, data shows. Over 450 cases of the infection have been diagnosed so far in Israel, and health professionals estimate that dozens more are being infected each day. ”

“The Pfizer vaccine has been found to be effective against the British variant, but experts fear that other variants may be less susceptible to these vaccines.The South African variant is the only one so far to have been linked to a lower effectiveness of the jab; it has also caused reinfection among those recovering from COVID-19. It is worrying experts because of the mutations in its protein wrapper, which the virus uses to bind to cells. These changes make it the most distant variant from the original coronavirus – the one that the vaccines were developed for.”

Interesting positive spin on the S. African strain – if you get infected and recover from this one you will have a better immunity – https://www.firstpost.com/health/south-african-covid-19-variant-may-provide-better-immunity-against-other-mutations-finds-small-study-9375031.html

“A new preliminary study — based on a small sample — has suggested that people previously infected by the COVID-19 variant identified in South Africa may have better immunity against other coronavirus mutations, experts said Wednesday. The findings, from a yet to be peer-reviewed research by the team of South African scientists who discovered the 501Y.V2 variant, raise hopes that vaccines modelled on the strain could protect against future mutations. Only four percent of a sample of 55 patients who had 501Y.V2 failed to neutralise infection from the original coronavirus variant, according to data presented by a cohort of scientists under the Network Genomic Surveillance South Africa (NGS-SA).”

Interesting to see the conflict in AstraZeneca vaccine for the elderly >65 – https://www.firstpost.com/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-is-80-4-pfizer-vaccine-is-71-4-effective-in-elderly-people-study-9374831.html

“The AstraZeneca/Oxford COVID-19 vaccine appears to be more than 80 percent effective at preventing severe illness among elderly, at-risk individuals after a single dose, according to preliminary research published Wednesday. The results, which have yet to be peer-reviewed, added to the growing body of evidence that the vaccine — which several countries have advised against giving to over-65s — is both safe and effective in older people. Researchers at the University of Bristol analysed patients aged over 80 admitted to hospital in Britain with respiratory illness. All the patients were tested for COVID-19 , and the positive and negative cases were separated into two data groups.”

Last note – points to the US food supply and lacking health trends – https://elemental.medium.com/how-the-western-diet-is-wreaking-havoc-on-our-guts-4ecbc54a9713

“Gut health in America is poor and seems to be getting worse. According to a 2020 study led by researchers at the University of North Carolina, roughly one in four U.S. adults regularly experiences diarrhea, constipation, stomach pain, or other symptoms of gastrointestinal dysfunction.

Meanwhile, about the same proportion of Americans — one in four— has gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), a condition in which the stomach’s contents migrate up into the throat and food pipe, causing heartburn and other symptoms. GERD used to be relatively rare among people under the age of 50, but a 2018 report from Case Western Reserve University in Ohio found that between 2006 and 2016, the prevalence of GERD rose steadily among younger adults — especially those in their thirties.”

“A Western diet packed with heavily processed foods tends to contain a lot of simple sugars. It also lacks fiber and complex carbohydrates, which are the types of foods that support healthy bacteria populations, Madsen explains. The Western diet is likewise implicated in the development of GERD and irritable bowel syndrome.

While a high-sugar, low-fiber diet seems to imperil the gut at any age, there’s evidence that eating a lot of sugary processed foods very early in life may shift the developing microbiome in ways that encourage inflammation and dysfunction. Unfortunately, these shifts may not be reversible later in life, even if a person ditches sugar and adopts a healthier diet.”

“Kaplan says that the overzealous use of antibiotics may also be a contributor. “We know that antibiotics affect the microbiome, particularly early in life,” he says. “Doctors are becoming more judicious, but there was a time when every time a kid got an ear infection, they were prescribed an antibiotic.”

He also mentions the so-called hygiene hypothesis, which has garnered significant attention and study. “The hypothesis is that in Western societies we live in a much more sterile environment,” Kaplan says. “So we’re not getting exposed to the vast number of microbes we used to, and this may not be good for us.” (Some recent work has found that the bacteria living in a person’s environment may support mental health as well as gut health.)”

““I don’t think there’s one trigger,” Limketkai adds. “All of these independently could help explain the rise in inflammation and IBD, but I think it’s likely a constellation of them.””

US over 2K

TX leads confirmation but VA leads death

Given VA leads death but doesn’t show up on map or county leaders likely just a data reset across the state. Almost every county had a death to report in VA yesterday.

Miami Dade leads confirmation with LA leading deaths

Even though LA leads death the numbers have dropped a lot – more in line with fatality rates normally seen.