Covid 5/7/20 | COVID 19 Information Page

Interesting read with lots of twist and turns to question – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8293417/amp/66-New-York-coronavirus-hospitalizations-people-staying-HOME.html

“A study of hospitals last week found that of 1,000 patients, 66 percent were people staying at home

73% of the new hospitalizations were people aged 51 and over and 96% had underlying health conditions

Most were in Manhattan – 21% – but 18% of the new hospitalizations were in Long Island

In New York City, 90% of those who answered said they had not been taking public transport

Cuomo said it showed that the new infections were down to ‘personal behavior’ like not wearing masks or not hand washing enough

It prompts the question of whether lockdown even works or is necessary

Deaths, hospitalizations and intubations are all down but the state remains in lockdown until May 15

Cuomo said he is ‘vindicated’ by the states that are seeing numbers continue to rise throughout reopening

There are now 19,877 deaths in New York state and more than 321,000 cases of the virus

Across America, there have been more than 1million cases and 72,000 deaths

Recent data shows that while New York’s numbers are decreasing, the rest of America’s are on the rise “

The 66% from home is a weird stat – most people do have homes or a place called home? So it would seem reasonable that would be the highest. I think the better question was the transportation question where the response indicated they are generally staying at home – Over 84% stay at home- NYC 90%. In order for them to get sick it must be either they already had it in system all the time or their little trips they are getting it – or its in their living spaces perhaps coming through ventilation?

Staying at home still meant going grocery shopping? Do they wear mask? Where do they go outside their house and how often? How are these homes ventilated? Do you live in multiplex units?

Cuomo push the blame to personal behavior interesting move….

Vindicated – interesting use of words – is he pleased that states opening up are seeing rising numbers (not confirmed)? Would it be better that they weren’t so then we can all open up and forget the parade of who was better and move on with our lives? Looking at the data which I suspect is a little too soon to really know – there is no indication that this is the case. Probably need to wait 2 weeks to really say opening up INCREASE deaths. Remember its not about confirmed cases – cases will rise but as long as no one is overwhelming the hospitals we should be fine. Vindicated by an inevitable rise in confirm cases is misalign as we know covid seems highly contagious in closed surroundings. Cases will rise be prepared for that – smart quarantine is to limit – not stop- cases and reduce/eliminate those likely to go to ICU. Comparing NY to total US numbers is also unreasonably as the rises are now in NJ, PA, and MA – all related to NY – not the states opening up.

To clarify the last bullet – NY numbers are decreasing in their growth – the absolute amount of deaths and confirmations are still rising. In fact today NY is back as the leader of daily deaths (499 increase).

To mask or not to mask – another awful reporting – https://fee.org/articles/stop-forcing-people-to-wear-masks-over-covid-19-fears/

Is it a strategy to link to studies and claim something else or even to link to studies expecting no one to read them?

“A 2011 randomized clinical trial found that medical masks offered no protection at all. A 2015 study concluded rates of infection were especially high in cloth masks, finding particle penetration in nearly 97 percent of them. A 2016 paper that analyzed six clinical studies found that N95 respirator masks fared no better than medical masks in preventing respiratory infection.”

The first two links to the study point to the same study but one should be a 2011 study and the other a 2015 study. The study https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00198.x?fbclid=IwAR3kRYVYDKb0aR-su9_me9_vY6a8KVR4HZ17J2A_80f_fXUABRQdhQlc8Wo is not answering the question to mask or not to mask – they are focused on whether fit-tested vs. non-fit-tested N95 have any material difference. In the study assessment they don’t….this is not answering to mask or not to mask?

The next study https://www.cmaj.ca/content/cmaj/188/8/567.full.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1pzMCjQNUnUCUrXAeOMjcurr5WFpWur5t_JjhDEKnIcHc3h2Jj4gJCHIU Once again is not to mask or not to mask – but a study comparing N95 with surgical mask – no conclusion insufficient data.

What is going on here? Paper goes on to state:

“As recently as April 7, a paper analyzing data from 15 randomized trials concluded that “compared to no masks there was no reduction of influenza-like illness cases for influenza for masks in the general population, nor in healthcare workers.” Despite the lack of hard empirical evidence, however, the study’s authors recommended the use of masks based on “observational evidence from the previous SARS epidemic.””

This study link goes https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047217v2.full.pdf and states

“All trials were conducted in nonpandemic settings…. Five trials compared surgical masks with N95/P2 respirators.”

Probably a worthy disclaimer to bring up first point – but then look at the comparison – its not comparing No mask vs. mask!

I don’t know what to say about reporting like this – anyway lets use common sense – mask likely stops macro air drops – doesn’t not stop completely everything. However if one sneezed or cough the spread is likely limited. Could a mask upon inhale perhaps screen out some – it would seem like a virus on a droplet would at some level stop on the fiber. I am sure many will pass through – but once again as I have been noting its about VIRAL LOAD – so if at some level you reduce the volume it will likely not impact you significantly. The better argument to not wear a mask is because you want to boost your immunity strength – then that’s a personal choice based on your risk/reward – but to say mask doesn’t do anything not sure about that…. I wear a mask grocery shopping now not biking or in my backyard or in an environment I know but everywhere else why not – risk/reward.

I do agree with this reporting – we must confront the elephant in the room that is overwhelming our healthcare system – it’s directly not covid – https://life.spectator.co.uk/articles/its-time-we-were-honest-about-obesity-and-covid-19/

“First do no harm” is the first principle of medicine. Fifty years ago, cigarettes were designated harmless, their use defended by the medical profession, despite the health concerns, and patients paid the price; today, processed food is “part of a balanced lifestyle”. Why do people have to be harmed while we wait for the medical profession to catch up with the science? There are those who wish to suppress legitimate discussion, by calculated faux outrage. Facts, I’m afraid, don’t care about your feelings.”

Back to more than 2K deaths reported in the US. This time NY is back on top (499). UK and Brazil are 649 and 650 respectively. For NY to be so high for so long compared to all these countries – either others are not testing enough and/or we just have the super strain and/or over reporting and/or have a heath issue in NY relative to other parts of the world. We have found a source of weekly total deaths by state so we will start analyzing that as soon as we get the data aligned to see if there is any insights into that data.