Covid 3/31/21

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news Pfizer studies confirm effectiveness to 12-15 – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-31/teens-100-protected-by-pfizer-vaccine-in-study-company-says

“In the study of 2,260 adolescents, the vaccine produced antibodies against the Covid-19 that exceeded the level seen in vaccinated young adults, Pfizer and BioNTech said in a statement. All 18 cases of Covid-19 in the study were in adolescents who were administered a placebo, the companies said. Side effects were consistent with those experienced by people ages 16 to 25.”

So they are studying a group that is only likely going to get infected with an odd of only 1.6% in their own study. What is the risk/reward here? Death for under 24 is 0.2% Transmission from youth from school data shows students are not the major source of spread.

Then we have the fact IF you are young and also healthy the hospitalization and death are reduced. Latest CDC study shows 78% deaths from obese patients – https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e4.htm

Over 30 BMI a big jump from the sample pool for hospitalization and death.

Being under 40 there are other factors creating a more pronounced U shape curve for ICU and hospitalization. Other age group clear issue for being Obese. You do not want to be too skinny – you need to have some mass to fight the disease.

Vaccine passports are a scary topic. I will say that the odds of a person being infected to be able to transmit is not clear. I would contend that an older unhealthy person that has taken vaccine is more likely to be a danger to spread an infection than a young healthy person without vaccine. Why would vaccine be the only discriminatory cut off? The more healthy you are the less likely you will get infected to be able to transmit. Being healthy still is the best choice. Is there a healthy passport?

Brazil 3.8K deaths and 80K+ infected….very bad situation for the world

The only good news for Brazil confirmation is holding steady. India and France con

MI leading in confirmation. TX leads in death

LA falling of the list. Miami Dade now leads all US counties for death and confirmation.

Clearly NY still the biggest issue for confirmation.