Covid 4/30/21

Covid19mathblog.com

Always important to review your hypothesis/forecast or you will never know if your critical thinking paths are correct. Last year this blog was calculating the confirmation and deaths that was likely going to be observed from NY – https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/04/covid-4-18-20/

At that time we were reporting 237K confirmed and deaths of 18K in NY – our hypothesis suggested 800K confirmed and deaths likely to range from 24-80K. We used statistical samples from Princess Diamond Cruise Ship noting the 10X density and Germany and Spain data to get the range. Reality we sit at 2 Million confirmed and 52K deaths. Ugh our confirmation was really wrong as people behavior and policies likely exacerbated the situation. The good news the death stayed below our max range but unfortunately we couldn’t be too high. The lack of indoor mitigation will likely continue to produce large confirmations going forward. My suspicion for India besides massive gathering for festival we had increased heat leading to more indoor gatherings.

Pill to treat – will that mean the vaccine loses their emergency status? https://www.vice.com/en/article/g5gbd3/pfizer-at-home-pill-covid-treatment

“Pfizer Inc. announced that it had begun human safety testing of a new pill to treat the coronavirus. If successful, the at-home oral drug could be prescribed and used as a preventative measure or at the first signs of illness from COVID-19: blocking the SARS-CoV2 virus from replicating and preventing patients from becoming more sick.”

“This week, company chairman and CEO Albert Bourla suggested that the Pfizer pill may well be available for public consumption before the end of the year.”

“The active ingredient of the drug, which is currently being called PF-07321332, fights the SARS-CoV2 virus by binding to a viral enzyme called a “protease”, preventing the virus from reproducing in cells and thus blocking it from spreading throughout a patient’s body.”

India again….

India will pass US 7 day max moving average death

US front FL leads confirmation and MI leads death

Interestingly Cook IL leads confirmation – makes sense given the previous weeks cold flurry.

Dispersion of confirmation is quite wide but these are smaller numbers.

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