Covid 5/4/21 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

Lots of news about young people and covid now – I guess the big push to get them vaccinated and statistically speaking they will represent a greater % of infected assuming the vaccines do work – https://www.knkx.org/post/children-now-account-22-new-us-covid-cases-why

“The number of children contracting COVID-19 in the U.S. is much lower than the record highs set at the start of the new year, but children now account for more than a fifth of new coronavirus cases in states that release data by age, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. It’s a statistic that may surprise many: Just one year ago, child COVID-19 cases made up only around 3% of the U.S. total.”

Shouldn’t surprise its just math…numerator stays same denominator falls…

“Experts link the trend to several factors – particularly high vaccination rates among older Americans. The U.S. recently announced 100 million people were fully vaccinated against COVID-19. But other dynamics are also in play, from new COVID-19 variants to the loosening of restrictions on school activities.

It’s also worth noting that for the vast majority of the pandemic, the age group with the highest case rates has been 18 to 24 in the U.S., as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes.”

“With mitigation measures in place in school, it still appears that transmission is much lower than it is in the surrounding community. But when you have a surge in the surrounding community, it’s inevitable that you’re going to see it in schools.”

“Now, the good news is we may, in the coming weeks, have the vaccine approved down to age 12. We don’t have any official dates on that yet, but it may be soon. Pfizer submitted their data to the FDA last month. So that could be a big game changer because we’ve known all along that adolescents tend to be both more likely to get infected and to spread the infection relative to the younger kids. So getting that population vaccinated is also going to make a difference in these dynamics. And I think it also can make a big difference for a lot of families’ summer plans”

“it is absolutely true that it’s less severe in kids than it is in adults, and particularly older adults. But it’s also not true to say that it’s completely benign in kids. Fortunately, pediatric death is a fairly rare event. But when you look at the top 10 causes of death, on an annual basis, this year, we’ve had, depending on whose numbers you use, somewhere between 300 and 600 pediatric deaths from COVID-19 so far. That’s probably an undercount. And that would fit it somewhere in the top 10, somewhere between like No. 6 and No. 9 in terms of causes of death for children.

So the point I’m making, there is that yes, it’s less severe, but it’s still potentially a very severe disease. We’ve seen tens of thousands of hospitalizations already. So we do need a vaccine for children, not just to protect, not just to achieve herd immunity, but also to protect the children themselves.”

“What about "long COVID" – are kids showing extended months of symptoms from the disease?

In kids, we have seen it, but it doesn’t seem to be as common as adults. We’re taking care of a few kids now who are still having symptoms well over a month past their infections. I think, as little as we know about long COVID in adults, we know even less in kids. We really have even less of an understanding of the overall epidemiology of how common it is in kids.”

“Traditionally, people think of children sharing viruses among each other and then giving them to adults. And this seems like that dynamic is almost the inverse.”

Last point its important – go back to school – it’s the teachers giving to kids not the other way.

CNN does a fact check in India – https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/03/india/india-coronavirus-fact-check-intl-hnk-dst/

“During the first wave, about 31% of patients were aged below 30, said V K Paul, the chairman of India’s Covid task force, at a press conference on April 19. During the second wave, that figure has only increased marginally to 32%.

Around 21% of patients were between 30 and 45 during the first wave — that proportion hasn’t changed during the second wave, according to government statistics.

It’s a similar situation when it comes to deaths. Last year, 20% of deaths were people aged 50 or younger. This time, it’s 19%.”

“"There is no overarching excess risk of young people becoming Covid positive," Paul said. "We don’t see a shift in the age prevalence of Covid-19 disease overall in the country."”

“He urged parents not to panic if their children test positive — as long as they are not overweight and have no underlying respiratory problem, most children don’t need any oxygen therapy or hospital admission, he said.”

“Of the 1.7 million people fully vaccinated with India’s homegrown Covaxin vaccine, 695 have tested positive for Covid, said the government-run Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in April. That equates to 0.04%.

Of the 15 million people who received both doses of Covishield — the Indian manufactured AstraZeneca vaccine — 5,014 people have tested positive, or 0.03%.

Until Saturday, India had only rolled out its vaccine to frontline workers and the most vulnerable”

“The term "double mutant" refers to the variant having two spike protein mutations. One of the mutations, called L452R, has also been found in other variants that confer some level of immune resistance. The second mutation, called E484Q, may be similar to another mutation found in the South Africa variant.

However, simply having these mutations does not necessarily mean it is either more transmissible or more lethal — we just don’t have that information yet.”

“There has been little evidence that local remedies can prevent or treat Covid, and medical bodies have refuted several of these practices.”

“The Indian Medical Association (IMA), a national organization of doctors, has also criticized high-profile figures for promoting unproven treatments, saying it is unethical and undermines the need for critical measures like vaccinations.”

“While vaccines offer individuals some degree of protection, India likely would have seen a huge increase in cases anyway due to the phased nature of its vaccination program, said Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton’s Clinical Informatics Research Unit.

Like most other countries, India vaccinated its most vulnerable citizens first, including the elderly and frontline health care workers. But young, fit people who can travel appear to be the biggest spreaders of Covid, he said — "and they would probably be the lowest priority in terms of vaccination."”

Once again its India