Covid19mathblog.com
CDC guidelines for summer camp scrutinized – interesting data presented for youth covid – https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/05/experts-cdcs-summer-camp-rules-are-cruel-irrational.html
“he CDC’s newly released guidance for summer camps is notable for its rigidity and strictness: Masks must be worn at all times, even outdoors, by everyone, including vaccinated adults and children as young as 2 years old. The exceptions are for eating and swimming. (The guidance helpfully notes that if a person is having trouble breathing or is unconscious, no mask need be worn.) Campers must remain three feet apart from each other at all times including, again, outdoors. Six feet of distance must be maintained during meals and between campers and staff. If you need to sneeze and you don’t have a tissue, do it into your mask. (Children presumably are expected to carry a cache of spares.) Campers and staff should be cohorted, and any interaction with a person outside the cohort must be conducted at a distance of six feet. Art supplies, toys, books, and games are not to be shared.”
“It has been well documented that kids are at exceedingly low risk of serious illness from COVID-19. For perspective, the CDC estimates that around 600 children died of influenza in the 2017–18 season; during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, 358 pediatric flu deaths were reported. Each year, more than 700 children die from drowning. Through the end of April, 277 have died from COVID-19.”
“the evidence is unequivocal that outdoor transmission is rare. An Irish study of more than 230,000 cases found just 0.1 percent were derived outdoors. Another study, awaiting peer review, found that the odds of a primary case being transmitted in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater than in an open-air environment. A systematic review found that outdoor transmission accounts for under 10 percent of cases. Another review found “very few examples of outdoor transmission of COVID-19 in everyday life.” It noted that risk increases when there is no social distancing but that temperatures conducive to outdoor activity – for example, summer sun – were “associated with lower COVID-19 transmission.””
“Dimitri Christakis, an epidemiologist and the editor-in-chief of JAMA Pediatrics, the leading journal for pediatric medicine, “is unfairly draconian.” We should let kids be close and play, he said. And with rapid testing twice a week on a rolling basis, a relatively easy program to conduct, he added, we should be able to forgo masks. Even without testing, Christakis said that sports like soccer should be able to be done without masks. And that “keeping children masked for activities like baseball and tennis is ridiculous.””
“The WHO says when deciding whether children ages 6 to 11 should wear masks to consider if there is widespread transmission in the area. This type of language gives the necessary latitude, not to mention political cover, to local officials to ease up on restrictions. By contrast, the CDC camp guidance allows for no such reasonable calculation to be factored in. The WHO also says that children under age 6 shouldn’t wear masks at all, whereas in the U.S. 2-year-olds are expected to do so. The WHO further advises that children should not wear a mask “when playing sports or doing physical activities, such as running, jumping, or playing on the playground, so that it doesn’t compromise their breathing.””
“Dr. Christakis said, “We’ve consistently deprioritized the essential needs of human childhood. Keeping kids out of school, enforcing social distance on them.” We have to learn to tolerate some level of risk, he said. It’s clear that children’s well-being is not the priority in these guidelines, he said, and “we have to try as best we can to give children their lives back.” Mark Gorelik, the pediatric immunologist, said, “Irrational recommendations will do no good, could in this case do harm, and really discredit federal agencies.””
It would seem many of these policies/guidelines/recommendations has hurt the demographics who is the least impacted. There is certainly some inequality here. The reasonable elders need to speak up for the voiceless.
Good news on vaccine front supporting just 1 shot – https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-05-05/south-korea-says-astrazeneca-pfizer-covid-19-vaccines-87-effective-after-first-shot
“One dose of COVID-19 vaccines from AstraZeneca Plc and Pfizer was 86.6% effective in preventing infections among people aged 60 and older, real world data released by South Korea showed on Wednesday.”
“Data by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) showed the Pfizer vaccine, jointly developed by BioNTech, was 89.7% effective in preventing infection at least two weeks after a first dose was given, while the AstraZeneca shot was 86.0% effective.
Its analysis is based on more than 3.5 million people in South Korea aged 60 and older for two months from Feb. 26 and included 521,133 people who received a first dose of either Pfizer or AstraZeneca shot.
There were 1,237 COVID-19 cases in the data and only 29 were from the vaccinated group, the KDCA said.”
“South Korea has so far vaccinated 6.7% of its 52 million strong population, but has set an ambitious target of giving shots to 70% of its people by September and reaching herd immunity by November.
Starting on Wednesday, South Koreans who are fully vaccinated and show a negative COVID-19 test and no symptoms will be exempted from the two-week mandatory quarantine upon their return from overseas travel, to encourages more vaccinations.”
Getting rid of the shot – to a pill with significantly enhance adoption – https://fortune.com/2021/05/04/vaccine-jabs-covid-19-pills-nasal-sprays-vaxart-altimmune/
“Instead of vials shipped around the world, and having to be stored at sub-zero temperatures, the new drugs would look more like this: blister-pack tablets and nasal sprays.
“Our expectation is one tablet per year,” Sean Tucker, chief scientific officer of San Francisco biotech company Vaxart, told Fortune on a Zoom call on Monday, holding up a pill that looks like a simple vitamin tablet—the company’s new COVID-19 vaccine. The company has just completed Phase I trials, and Tucker says his team plans to conduct Phase II trials this summer, and efficacy trials late this year; he hopes to receive authorization for emergency use in the U.S. within a year. “We don’t need syringes,” he says.”
“Of the 93 vaccine trials underway, just two are for oral tablets and seven are the nasal variety, according to the World Health Organization.”
“In a survey commissioned by Vaxart, and released last week, about 23% of people polled in the U.S. said they did not want to be jabbed with a COVID-19 vaccine. But about one-third of those said they would take a vaccine tablet if it were available. Based on that, Vaxart estimates that a tablet might bump up by another 19 million the number of people in the U.S. who are willing be immunized—perhaps enough for the country to reach herd immunity.”
India once again leads
Good news India seems to be slowing down in both death and confirmation
FL leads confirmation – MI leads death
Cook IL leading confirmation again. Wayne MI leads death
Vaccine growth is in a downward trajectory