Covid 7/17/21

Covid19mathblog.com

Ivermectin getting some backlash/scrutiny as a report is being withdrawn with some issues in it. However still not address is the fact the risk of taking ivermectin is likely equivalent to Tylenol/advil/vitamins assuming under a care/review. And what would be the motive for this error if on purpose – fame? – no money to be made from ivermectin. Huge study supporting ivermectin as Covid treatment withdrawn over ethical concerns | Medical research | The Guardian

“the drug’s promise as a treatment for the virus is in serious doubt after the Elgazzar study was pulled from the Research Square website on Thursday “due to ethical concerns”. Research Square did not outline what those concerns were.

A medical student in London, Jack Lawrence, was among the first to identify serious concerns about the paper, leading to the retraction. He first became aware of the Elgazzar preprint when it was assigned to him by one of his lecturers for an assignment that formed part of his master’s degree. He found the introduction section of the paper appeared to have been almost entirely plagiarised.”

“The data also looked suspicious to Lawrence, with the raw data apparently contradicting the study protocol on several occasions.

“The authors claimed to have done the study only on 18-80 year olds, but at least three patients in the dataset were under 18,” Lawrence said.”

What is interesting is how J&J continues to be scrutinized way more than Moderna and Pfizer so I agree with this assesment – ‘Teacher’s Pets’ Moderna And Pfizer-BioNTech Again Avoid FDA Scrutiny – OpEd – Eurasia Review

“It does not seem fair. This week, Johnson & Johnson was called out by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for problems with Johnson & Johnson’s experimental coronavirus vaccine. While experimental coronavirus vaccine competitors Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech skated by without censure despite their shots appearing likely to cause the same problems, the FDA put out a warning regarding the Johnson & Johnson shot.

With this sort of singling out of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine for criticism, which has happened before as well, it seems appropriate to ask: Are Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech teacher’s pets of the FDA?”

“The United States government lets slide risks from two companies’ shots while investigating and warning about the similar risks from another company’s shots, as well as even halting the giving of that company’s shots. Are we seeing here favoritism for certain companies, or is it, as I suggested in April, favoritism for the new mRNA technology shots over the more traditional shot Johnson & Johnson offers? The experimental coronavirus vaccine shots pushers in government and media keep telling people to “follow the science.” However, the apparent favoritism for the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech shots over the Johnson & Johnson shot suggests that something other than the science is being followed by US government regulators”

50/50 now for a lab leak! Senior Biden officials finding that Covid lab leak theory as credible as natural origins explanation – CNNPolitics

“Senior Biden administration officials overseeing an intelligence review into the origins of the coronavirus now believe the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it emerged naturally in the wild — a dramatic shift from a year ago, when Democrats publicly downplayed the so-called lab leak theory.”

Covid and kids – once again they are the least likely group to gain from vaccination given the extent issue of getting and being impacted by covid so in practice the vaccination level SHOULD be less in this category given reward is smaller and potentially risk is higher given more time for longer term impact – July: ncmd-covidrisks | News and features | University of Bristol

“The risk of severe illness and death from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is extremely low in children and teenagers, according to the most comprehensive analyses of public health data, led by researchers at UCL, University of Bristol, University of York and the University of Liverpool.”

“One preprint study*, published on the medRxiv server, found that 251 young people aged under 18 in England were admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 during the first year of the pandemic (until the end of February 2021).

The researchers, seeking to determine absolute risk, said this equated to young people of that age group in England having a one in 47,903 chance of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 and subsequently being admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 during that time.

Looking separately at PIMS-TS*, a rare inflammatory syndrome in children caused by Covid-19, the researchers found that 309 young people were admitted to intensive care with this condition – equating to an absolute risk of one in 38,911.

A linked preprint study**, also published on the medRxiv server and looking at data for England, concluded that 25 children and young people had died as a result of Covid-19, equating to an absolute risk of death from Covid-19 of one in 481,000, or approximately two in a million.”

““Those young people at higher risk are those who are also at higher risk from any winter virus or other illness – that is, young people with multiple health conditions and complex disabilities. Covid-19 does however increase the risks for people in these groups to a higher degree than for illnesses such as influenza (seasonal flu).

“Our new findings are important as they will inform shielding guidance for young people as well as decisions about the vaccination of teenagers and children, not just in the UK but internationally.””

“In a separate preprint study**, researchers looked at data from the National Child Mortality Database (NCMD) at the University of Bristol, a mandatory reporting system in England, to identify all children and young people who died following SARS-CoV-2 infection until the end of February 2021. Sixty-one children died following a positive diagnosis, but the researchers reviewed clinical records to determine that only 25 of these children (41 per cent) died as a result of Covid-19.

Meanwhile, a third linked preprint paper*** published this week looked at 81 existing studies assessing risk factors for severe illness and death from Covid-19 among young people. It found higher risks among young people who were obese, had more than one health condition, or had a cardiac or neurological condition. Risk, particularly risk of death, was higher in these analyses than in the national English data. The authors suggested this was likely reflecting biases in the published literature but also the inclusion of studies from resource-poor settings with higher mortality.”

LA county back to mask mandate – LA County Brings Back Mask Mandate Indoors — Even If You’re Vaccinated | KQED

Question IS IT THE BEST THING TO FOCUS ON? Should they ask why LA what makes LA different than SF? LA 188% greater on per capita than SF in the last 30 days. My hypothesis goes back to ventilation. LA should focus on setting indoor CO2 levels and promoting adjustments to HVAC to produce less than 1000 ppm. Data certainly shows a spike coming – still quite a ways from the previous spike.

Brazil still #1 – Indonesia surpassed India in confirmations now.

FL continues to dominate the numbers. Why FL? At least they continue to show relatively low fatality rates.

Hotspots LA and Miami Dade