Covid 7/27/21 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

Now the blame wars have begun….China is now noting the leak from the US starting in summer of 2019 at Ft. Derrick – http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-07/26/c_1310087442.htm

“Recent studies have shown that the United States and other countries showed signs of the virus and infections before the outbreak in China. At least five states in the United States alone had earlier COVID-19 infections before the first officially reported confirmed case in the United States.

The United States is the country that saw the most infections and deaths in the pandemic and whose fight against the outbreak has a flurry of unanswered questions. But the origin-tracing work in the United States was inadequate.

In June and July 2019, U.S. media started to report issues involving Fort Detrick. By the end of July, two retirement communities near the base witnessed outbreaks of pneumonia of unknown cause. In September, vaping-related lung illness cases doubled in Maryland where Fort Detrick is located.

Despite facing mounting doubts, the United States has continued to refuse to release critical information regarding the base’s closure under the pretext of "national security."

Instead, the United States has tried to stigmatize China’s concerted and effective anti-virus measures, despite the fact that China did its best to organize and coordinate with relevant parties to meet the needs of the World Health Organization (WHO) expert team who visited Wuhan in central China to carry out the virus-source tracing and relevant global research jointly with Chinese experts.

The expert group concluded that the so-called "lab leak" theory is "extremely unlikely" and recommended conducting further research around earlier cases globally.”

Natural immunity approach seems to be India choice – https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/21/covid-19-antibodies-detected-in-67-of-indias-population?__twitter_impression=true

“Covid-19 antibodies have been detected in 67% of the population of India, according to a new survey, indicating how widely the virus spread through communities during the second wave.

India’s fourth national sero-survey, which examines the prevalence of Covid-19 antibodies either through infection or vaccination, found that 67.6% of the population of more than 1.3 billion has coronavirus antibodies.

The survey also demonstrated the slow pace of India’s vaccination programme. Of those surveyed, 62.2% had not been vaccinated, 24.8% had taken one dose and 13% were fully vaccinated.”

Becareful of noting the CDC breakthrough stats they ignore the average breakthrough AND ONLY TRACK hospitalization breakthrough – https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

“As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause.”

Collateral damage of lockdowns – https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fears-grow-of-looming-cancer-crisis-3k7mv8876

“Fears are growing of an emerging cancer crisis after new figures showed more than 300,000 people had missed checks for the disease since the start of the pandemic.

In the 12 months to March, 304,555 fewer patients in England were given an urgent referral to a hospital by their GP. The number referred for breast cancer checks fell by more than 20,000 in 2020-21.”

We added a new dataset – county level age bucket specified population percent vaccinated. (Not available for TX ad CA). If we look at the data by counties we can see several counties that have vaccinated a majority of the population. Viewing it by state creates a manageable view and also normalizes some behaviors given roughly similar weather in each counties and cultural behaviors. The big hypothesis is vaccination DOES NOT stop/reduce spread / confirmation – and given that offers little to the youth who do not show much if any death issues AND limited long covid. We should see a significant death improvement as more elder are vaccinated.

The hypothesis is not clear cut that vaccination does not stop/reduce spread given still only a few months of data and in the summer time not a full blown wave. Some states do show a picture that there is a reduction. However we do see states where it is not clear and we do see some interesting outliers in the data. The second hypothesis is more consistent. In some states its clear more vaccination reduced deaths – some not clear at all.

AZ Indicates a false hypothesis for 1 as more vac limited some spread. Deaths look lower as more vaccinated

CO – Indicated true hypothesis as more vac is not leading to a reduction in spread. A slight improvement in deaths as more vaccination. Interesting to note the low vaccination rate in CO relative to other states. They are one of the more fit states so perhaps they get a pass on not vaccinating?

FL – Indicates a true hypothesis no stop of spread even with increasing vaccination. There is a decline in deaths as more vaccination.

GA we have a very strange outlier – Chattahoochee is 100% vaccinated but observing the highest confirmation and not a low death per capita either.

IL seems to have an outlier Carroll county with one of the highest vaccine rate but still high spread and high death.

MD shows false hypothesis as more vaccination has lead to a trend of reduce spread AND lead to reduction of death.

MO is indicating higher vaccination leading toe lower spread. Deaths at the highly vaccinated counties are lower.

NY does show more vaccinated region less spread. Deaths are also declining.

OH is not clear that vaccination reduces spread – but indicates reduction on death.

PA – Indication false hypothesis for 1 as more vac lead to lower spread but the death response is all over the place.

SC not showing higher vaccination leads to less spread. Does show less death.

VA does not show much of anything in both spread and deaths – data is all over the place.

WY shows high vaccinate rate in Teton – however not lowest spread or lowest death.

We will continue to monitor this and see IF vaccination can assist in reducing spread. There is another element of behavior perhaps those areas that get vaccinated more like to wear mask? I need mask wearability by county…..

Indonesia leads in death followed by Ecuador.