Covid19mathblog.com

Our supremacy in medical innovation and advice may start to teeter if we get too political – or perhaps this is what happens when you are on top the others just question you.

As I showed in the last blog the Tokyo Medical Association supporting IVM. The media is labeling IVM as a horse dewormer – not sure why they don’t go with dog dewormer – more degrading? BTW I would never endorse/recommend taking animal form medicine for human form. I did get covid as documented here and I did take a IVM & HCQ – but I got it prescribed and took the HUMAN form/dosage! AND I never concluded that it actually helped me as I will never know but I do know the risk/reward calculation made it worthwhile for me. When we talk about antibiotics we don’t refer to them as livestock antibiotics – it is a fact 80% of ALL antibiotics sold goes to the livestock industry. This is a media spin/propaganda with the agenda of ?? Vaccination?? No pharma left behind?? You can be provaccine and believe in treatment?

The common argument which is valid is to argue how in the world could a medicine to treat a parasite work for a virus…..well it was documented in June from the Journal of Antibiotics (yeah a really exciting journal that I am sure all these media reporters read all the time) which went into quite a bit of detail of the potential mechanism – so it’s not just hope – please read if you are the skeptic. As documented by many its very important not to wait on taking these approach – failure rate will increase significantly if you wait days before administrating – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41429-021-00430-5?s=09

As noted in this blog several states in India started IVM protocol and perhaps coincidentally the numbers dropped. Now India is questioning the vaccine particularly for those who already got infected. Forget the vaccine passport but go with a antibody passport? Likely to cause people in poor health to never be able to travel or go to certain business – https://www.outlookindia.com/website/amp/india-news-vaccines-may-do-more-harm-than-good-to-those-recovered-from-covid-19-experts/390974?__twitter_impression=true

“A section of infectious disease experts in India believes that vaccines have no benefits to such individuals who have naturally recovered from Covid-19. Instead, it might cause some harm to them and lead to Serious Adverse Event Following Immunization (SAEFI).”

“Dr Sanjay Rai, Professor, Community Medicine in All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, says that all available evidence demonstrates that the natural infection provides better and longer protection that may even be lifelong.

”There is no need to vaccinate individuals who had documented COVID-19 infection in the past. These individuals may be vaccinated after generating evidence that vaccine is beneficial after natural infection,” Dr Rai said. He added,” Based on the available shreds of evidence, we can say that there is no additional benefit of vaccination in COVID recovered individuals. Actually, it may cause harm due to few known and unknown severe adverse events following immunization.” Dr Rai also believes that vaccines are precious resources that should be used to save other vulnerable persons’ lives rather than wasting them on well-protected individuals. ”

““A reliable test of antibody can be another way to establish if a person is a confirmed Covid-19 recovered case,” Dr Muliyil said.

He added, “At present, the available evidence suggests that natural infection is superior to vaccination. So in retrospect, it is a good and convenient way to say who needs vaccination and who doesn’t.”

The big fear from unvaxx is that they could be more likely to get infected and spread it. But usually if you show symptoms you would stay home regardless of covid or not AND/OR people that do show symptoms people are now scared of and shy away from them even if it is just allergies – so its really the asymptomatic that is scarier in terms of spread. Well it only makes sense that vaccine makes you feel like you can do whatever now – it kind of made me feel that way hence I ended up with covid – so one hypothesis I think- vaccinated society creates more asymptomatic carriers which lead to greater spread? I did a quick search to make sure I am not out in left field – and yes it is a possible outcome – https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/most-fully-vaccinated-people-who-get-covid-delta-infections-are-asymptomatic-who-says-.html

“Most fully vaccinated people who get Covid delta infections are asymptomatic, WHO says”

The also noted in the same link

“Some studies have shown that those infected with Covid after vaccination produce much less virus than those who are unvaccinated, reducing the risk of passing the virus to others. WHO officials said that more studies are needed to understand the vaccines’ impact on transmissibility.”

But this last statement doesn’t take into account time. Sure perhaps you have less viral load – but as you sit in a unventilated area because you feel so confident that you have the vaccine and that you show no symptom you can stay and chat much longer in that environment and potentially with no mask – and therefore at some point this is a lot more dangerous than an unvaxx who wears a mask and is cognizant they are unvaxx and need to take precaution particularly if they show symptoms.

Human behavior is likely the bigger element of spread vs. vax status. Likely it feels better to be able to point to something other than you.

I came across this article from author and news person who unfortunately caught covid – and just today posted she is headed to the hospital after 4 days of trying to get through it without treatment – I wish her well and highly recommend people be proactive and throw out principles of news hysteria and do your own risk/reward calculation on how you plan to attack the issue if you get covid. https://www.nbcnews.com/know-your-value/feature/i-got-breakthrough-covid-case-vacation-labor-day-don-t-ncna1278391

It is interesting her attack on the unvaccinated insinuating it was there fault –

“got infected during our annual family vacation to the shores of South Carolina. In hindsight, I should have known better. And if I had a do-over, I would have cancelled the trip.

The challenge is South Carolina is a highly unvaccinated state, recently topping the nation in new Covid-19 cases. While we vacation in one of the better counties (Charleston), I went against my better judgment and figured that all six of us were safe because we’re all fully vaccinated and healthy”

Well first off its more important not to generalize a state as it more matters where you are at since covid is not going to travel miles. She lives in Loudon County in VA – well Loudan County vaxx levels is lower than Charleston on a per capita basis – so in fact IF she believed it was the unvaxx she actually went to a safer place than she lived. 62.1% vs. 56.3%. Perhaps more likely her behavior changed – she is on vacation she went out dining more often than cooking at home….can you blame this on the S. Carolinians?

She then notes a statement from CDC telling UNVACCINATED not to travel?

“The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recent warning urging unvaccinated Americans not to travel over Labor Day weekend also influenced my decision to share.”

Not sure if CDC actually said that but if you believe this as an issue its not just the unvaccinated that can be impacted its all even the vaccinated that need to consider the risk that transmission is not stopped per the vaccine. Death rates and hospitalization factually has fallen which can be attributed to the vaccine – hence generally a pro vaccine for the most rewarded parts of the society (elder/comorbidity). The data still shows 80% of the hospitalization from the obese so get well and healthy before traveling.

And then she highlights and points out the problem in her mind – the unvaccinated.

“Please be safe this Labor Day weekend. The problem is not those of us who are vaccinated. The problem is those who are not. I learned this the hard way.”

Well making it this black and white I can see the level of hatred for the unvaccinated. Yet there is not proof that unvaxx is leading to this. IF it was the counties with the highest vaccination should show the lowest transmission and vice versa. The primary driver is human behavior and the environment you are in. Get a portable CO2 reader – check to see if your environment is less than 1000 ppm. Continue to work/maintain your health. Don’t make the excuse it takes a long time before I get fit – look we are 2 years into this – you had 2 years to get fit – it could be decades of living with Covid. Clearly the vaccine has still room to improve – if possible to make something that stop infection.

One thing I have seen more often than not the unvaxx do not wish harm on the vaxx (outside the concepts not proven they are causing the spread and they are overwhelming the health facilities) but some vaxx have some real hatred and ill-will to the unvaxx – I can see it if you have the above perspective. Hopefully we can figure it out so we can not be so divisive. Everyone has their own risk/reward and unique circumstances. Wishing her well and a speedy recovery regardless of disagreeing with some of her conclusions.

The US is leading in both confirmation and deaths

Scary to note one of the most vaccinated country leading the confirmation per capita – Israel – ADE?

There is no clear cut metric that one can point to indicate deaths and covid. Likely human behavior plays a large part from hygiene to lifestyle (inside/outside) – clearly western lifestyle comforts have lead to bad results – but so has countries with less comforts e.g. Peru – However the Asian stats continue to show remarkable results – even India with their large spike.

The big three continue to drive the US FL, TX, CA

Hot Springs WY showing a surge – but is it due to the locals or the visitors coming in? Still no big bifurcation from low vax counties to high vax counties.