Covid19mathblog.com

Interesting the Atlantic is coming out with some interesting thought pieces – this one goes with our last discussion in terms of measuring asymptomatic flu – never done – https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/ – what does it mean to measure something if you don’t have base for it. How prevalent is a viruses in society that don’t impact the body (asymptomatic)?

“From the start, COVID hospitalizations have served as a vital metric for tracking the risks posed by the disease. Last winter, this magazine described it as “the most reliable pandemic number,” while Vox quoted the cardiologist Eric Topol as saying that it’s “the best indicator of where we are.” On the one hand, death counts offer finality, but they’re a lagging signal and don’t account for people who suffered from significant illness but survived. Case counts, on the other hand, depend on which and how many people happen to get tested. Presumably, hospitalization numbers provide a more stable and reliable gauge of the pandemic’s true toll, in terms of severe disease. But a new, nationwide study of hospitalization records, released as a preprint today (and not yet formally peer reviewed), suggests that the meaning of this gauge can easily be misinterpreted—and that it has been shifting over time.”

“The federal government requires hospitals to report every patient who tests positive for COVID, yet the overall tallies of COVID hospitalizations, made available on various state and federal dashboards and widely reported on by the media, do not differentiate based on severity of illness. Some patients need extensive medical intervention, such as getting intubated. Others require supplemental oxygen or administration of the steroid dexamethasone. But there are many COVID patients in the hospital with fairly mild symptoms, too, who have been admitted for further observation on account of their comorbidities, or because they reported feeling short of breath. Another portion of the patients in this tally are in the hospital for something unrelated to COVID, and discovered that they were infected only because they were tested upon admission.”

“The study found that from March 2020 through early January 2021—before vaccination was widespread, and before the Delta variant had arrived—the proportion of patients with mild or asymptomatic disease was 36 percent. From mid-January through the end of June 2021, however, that number rose to 48 percent. In other words, the study suggests that roughly half of all the hospitalized patients showing up on COVID-data dashboards in 2021 may have been admitted for another reason entirely, or had only a mild presentation of disease. This increase was even bigger for vaccinated hospital patients, of whom 57 percent had mild or asymptomatic disease. But unvaccinated patients have also been showing up with less severe symptoms, on average, than earlier in the pandemic: The study found that 45 percent of their cases were mild or asymptomatic since January 21. According to Shira Doron, an infectious-disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, in Boston, and one of the study’s co-authors, the latter finding may be explained by the fact that unvaccinated patients in the vaccine era tend to be a younger cohort who are less vulnerable to COVID and may be more likely to have been infected in the past.”

“the study also demonstrates that hospitalization rates for COVID, as cited by journalists and policy makers, can be misleading, if not considered carefully. Clearly many patients right now are seriously ill. We also know that overcrowding of hospitals by COVID patients with even mild illness can have negative implications for patients in need of other care. At the same time, this study suggests that COVID hospitalization tallies can’t be taken as a simple measure of the prevalence of severe or even moderate disease, because they might inflate the true numbers by a factor of two. “As we look to shift from cases to hospitalizations as a metric to drive policy and assess level of risk to a community or state or country,” Doron told me, referring to decisions about school closures, business restrictions, mask requirements, and so on, “we should refine the definition of hospitalization. Those patients who are there with rather than from COVID don’t belong in the metric.””

Interesting Segway from the hospital discussion to the latest news of people dying because being turned away from ICU. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/alabama-heart-patient-dies-after-hospital-contacts-43-icus-3-n1279025

“An Alabama antiques dealer died this month of a "cardiac event" after the emergency staff at his local hospital contacted dozens of intensive care units in three states and was unable to find him a bed as Covid-19 cases surged, his family said.”

From the data certainly ICU beds have soared….there seems to be Inpatient Bed availability so hopefully they were able to allocate appropriately between ICU vs non ICU….interesting the ICU used for covid is equivalent to the winter not higher – yet the total ICU utilization showing over 100% – which really points to other sickness increases driving the issue – so somewhat disingenuous to say it’s the Covid cases causing this issue – sure if it wasn’t there and/or the typical ICU wasn’t full it would be ok. Once again knowing some of the covid labels are not for covid as noted above it points to more issues beyond covid.

Another interesting point is the fact that Jefferson county (where he lives Birmingham AL) is one of the MOST vaccinated in the country @ 57%! Jefferson relative young county so 33% cant get the vaccine so we are at 90% compliant! So lets stop the unvax blaming for everything…..

Lots of discussion in terms of risk is long covid – no one wants long covid so getting covid voluntary is not the best option IF there is not certainty to treat and eliminate long covid. There are rumors that vaccination reduces long covid – this is as much substantiated as vaccine produces greater infection (ADE). This article highlights long covid and its happening to vaxx and unvaxx – https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/09/13/1032844687/what-we-know-about-breakthrough-infections-and-long-covid

“A small Israeli study recently provided the first evidence that breakthrough infections could lead to long COVID symptoms, although the numbers are small. Out of about 1,500 vaccinated health care workers, 39 got infected, and seven reported symptoms that lasted more than six weeks.

And a large British study subsequently found about 5% of people who got infected — even though they were fully vaccinated — experienced persistent symptoms, although the study also found that the odds of having symptoms for 28 days or more were halved by having two vaccine doses.

"I think it’s a reasonable concern. But it’s too early. I think we need to follow these patients. It’s quite recent that they’ve been recognized. So at the moment we don’t have that answer," Nath says, adding that if there is a risk, he suspects it’s probably very low.”

Singapore is seeing a surge deaths – yet they were one of the ones who went very strict in the beginning – yielding a super low confirmed per capita = 1.25% And then they went vaccine crazy with 80% per capita vaccinated….Deaths are above last year peak – confirmation higher than last year but not higher than the peak of last year

Israel study shows third jab increases antibodies – https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/vaccine-efficacy-safety-follow-up-committee/he/files_publications_corona_booster-27082021.pdf

“Results: Twelve days or more after the booster dose we found an 11.4-fold (95% CI: [10.0,

12.9]) decrease in the relative risk of confirmed infection, and a >10-fold decrease in the

relative risk of severe illness. Under a conservative sensitivity analysis, we find ≈5-fold

protection against confirmed infection.

Conclusions: In conjunction with safety reports, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of a

third vaccine dose in both reducing transmission and severe disease and indicates the great

potential of curtailing the Delta variant resurgence by administering booster shots.”

Now whether the vaccine amounts do something else that’s still unknown – its interesting how it’s the “Science” its perfect for you statement – look here is a study now linking antibiotics to breast cancer – sometimes you just don’t know everything particularly on a long timeline – discoveriers and understanding changes and that is the science -questioning and investigating. In the mean time you make your risk/reward calc weighing uncertainty on things more new – https://www.pharmatimes.com/news/research_identifies_possible_link_between_antibiotic_use_and_breast_cancer_growth_1377637

“In a new study funded by Breast Cancer Now, scientists have identified a possible link between antibiotic use and the speed of breast cancer growth in mice.”

“Researchers from the Quadram Institute and the University of East Anglia (UEA) discovered that treating mice with broad-spectrum antibiotics increased the rate at which their breast cancer tumours grew.

On top of that, they also identified an increase in the size of secondary tumours that grew in additional organs when the cancer spread.

According to the researchers, the use of antibiotics led to the loss of a beneficial bacterial species which resulted in the progression of tumour growth.”

Conspiracy world is not over – clearly Fauci likely involved in the funding of gain of function – latest https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9992471/amp/Chinese-defector-Wei-Jingsheng-claims-warned-Covid-19-months-pandemic-declared.html?__twitter_impression=true

“Defector Wei Jingsheng said he warned Trump administration about Covid

He claims he took his concerns to senior figures in the US gov but was ignored

The campaigner says he made the approach all way back in November 2019

Had heard rumours about a ‘new SARS virus’ being kept secret in China”

Did he take it to Fauci? Who was the Trump administrator?

Another thought piece from Atlantic is the other side of the equation of policy of masking the young in school – https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/school-mask-mandates-downside/619952/

“In mid-March 2020, few could argue against erring on the side of caution. But nearly 18 months later, we owe it to children and their parents to answer the question properly: Do the benefits of masking kids in school outweigh the downsides? The honest answer in 2021 remains that we don’t know for sure.”

US continues to be on top

Looks like the wave is coming off now – as expected as the weather tempers in the US

Same states in US TX and FL that lead

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Now seeing some transmission related concern with unvaxx region – top two counties under 40% vac per capital but the third place 55%