Covid19mathblog.com
There are a few factual truths society has failed to grasp which I will try to reiterate here. I see so many reports pointing out the South transmission as proof those states have no idea what they are doing and the unvaccinated are the issue. This thinking makes you lose the reason why transmission is really occurring and therefore the solution to solve the issue is misaligned. Vaccination is not the solution to transmission – it is HVAC re-evaluation! WHY do I say that….lets talk about the physics of the virus before we talk the data – since the data for some reason is not suffice by itself.
Covid/SARs is a coronavirus – same as many cold viruses. This is a virus with lipid outer shell which hardens at temperatures 60F below. I am not making this up this is well known and many studies have evaluated the physics of coronavirus – here is a 2010 study – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/#!po=39.1892
“At 4°C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C than at 4°C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH. Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40°C than at 20°C. The relationship between inactivation and RH was not monotonic, and there was greater survival or a greater protective effect at low RH (20%) and high RH (80%) than at moderate RH (50%).”
This is what causes cold seasons. Potentially Covid could be more lethal as perhaps hardening of the shell occurs at higher temps – not much study done on this. Nonetheless the physics is there for this virus. Typically if one sets your AC temp to 75 then your HVAC unit is operating 55-61 degrees (https://carolinacomfortsc.com/how-cold-should-the-air-coming-from-my-air-conditioner-be/) plus it is generally dehumidifying too so IF the virus is in the air it is being encapsulated (shell hardening) allowing it survive longer. Summer time leads to more indoors and particularly if people close down outside areas like they did in CA. This is why you see more transmission in the South.
Now the next reasonable question is why not flu and cold….well another fact not understood by the public WE have never tested for a virus as we have done for covid. When you had a cold or flu before and was reasonably ok did you go take a test and have it confirmed and put into a DB? Likely not. These numbers are huge but we have NO frame of reference – potentially cold/summer flu before was just a prevalent and/or not as airborne as covid. No argument about the deaths being higher for covid but this discussion is about transmission. To think its just unvaxx causing transmission, you will solve for a solution that wont solve anything.
WINTER is coming! Who will you blame when counties are essentially fully vaccinated – blame the kids? Even though studies show they don’t transmit as much? HVAC can cost effectively be revamped. Most if not all commercial HVAC have an economizer which controls the amount of fresh air. We should target <1000ppm of CO2 as Taiwan does. Also technology to destroy Covid in HVAC should be adopted and made standard. Pharma approach is NOT the only way to end this.
FL drop is related to temp NOT a change in policy or worse yet the die off as many are talking about….
Clearly there is a confirmation bias to see and hear only what you want to hear. Vaccination status when taking into human behavior into account is not the best mechanism for transmission. For sure the vaccinated will likely have a shorter duration of infection but they are also more asymptomatic and more confident causing more cases. There is also evidence now the fact the level of infection is not lower as many have alluded to at least in the beginning- https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1
“PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were similar between both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals.”
HVAC/Ventilation is the key to reducing transmission to a much larger degree than vaccines could ever. IF vaccination was the solution we would see high transmission counties as model counties showing limited transmission and vice versa. This is not the case. JUST look at the data with open eyes and mind.
Interesting to see the data for confirmation is now starting to shift to the north
Temp dropping below 60F in Montana
Big news is Merck is able to show a pill to cut death and hospitalization – https://apnews.com/article/merck-says-experimental-covid-pill-cuts-worst-effects-a9a2245fdcee324f6bbd776a0fffcc60
“In a potential leap forward in the global fight against the pandemic, drugmaker Merck said Friday that its experimental pill for people sick with COVID-19 reduced hospitalizations and deaths by half.
If cleared by regulators, it would be the first pill shown to treat COVID-19, adding a whole new, easy-to-use weapon to an arsenal that already includes the vaccine.
The company said it will soon ask health officials in the U.S. and around the world to authorize the pill’s use. A decision from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration could come within weeks after that, and the drug, if it gets the OK, could be distributed quickly soon afterward.”
The vaccine companies are not too happy. Of course it’s a special pill not a generic medicine. I know the anti-IVM crowd is much stronger than the IVM crowd. However its important to realize India -who by the way represent 1 out of 10 doctors in the US – has continued the use of IVM and has seen their numbers drop dramatically without many being fully vaccinated – still at 17.6% vs. US at 55.8% — vaccination was not the answer in India? Any talking about this?
The risk to take the vaccine may be low but so is the fact is the reward of taking the vaccine (not dying) gets smaller as you are younger and it would seem the risk is growing as you get younger as more and more reports are coming out.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1
“Conclusions Post-vaccination CAE rate was highest in young boys aged 12-15 following dose two. For boys 12-17 without medical comorbidities, the likelihood of post vaccination dose two CAE is 162.2 and 94.0/million respectively. This incidence exceeds their expected 120-day COVID-19 hospitalization rate at both moderate (August 21, 2021 rates) and high COVID-19 hospitalization incidence. Further research into the severity and long-term sequelae of post-vaccination CAE is warranted. Quantification of the benefits of the second vaccination dose and vaccination in addition to natural immunity in this demographic may be indicated to minimize harm.”
Interesting to see the argument that it is selfish not to get vaccinated. Would it be selfish to promote vaccination on a demographic who could see more harm than reward?
Explaining how the “healthy” are impacted by Covid – a genetic market C677T – Also explains how Asia has fared well….and also how much diet can play – message once again get healthy!
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC7467063/
“The global prevalence of both the CT and TT genotype was found to be highest in Europeans (54,0%) and North Americans (42,8%) and lowest in Asians (35,4%) and Africans (19,6%) [5]. However, subgroup analysis showed remarkable regional differences. Among East Asian countries, both genotypes were found to be most prevalent in China (67,1%) and least prevalent in India (20,3%). In European countries the highest prevalence was found in Italy (66,3%), the lowest in Finland (44,2%) [5], [6]. While the TT genotype was found significantly more often in males of the Indian cohort [5], generally, the C677T polymorphism seems to be distributed equally between genders [7]. However, low folate status resulted in significant higher levels of Hc only in male subjects [7], [8]. Further, the C677T mutation seems to be associated with a significantly increased risk for coronary artery disease only in homozygous men”
“In conclusion, we propose a theory of specific vulnerability to a severe course of COVID-19 initiated by H-Hcy, which can be triggered by the presence of the C677T polymorphism. Male gender, nutritional factors, life-style factors and several underlying diseases seem to be further significant risk factors for an increased vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic early risk stratification by measurement of Hc-plasma levels and possibly screening for the presence MTHFR polymorphism appears promising. Additionally, treatment with vitamins and micronutrients in addition to standard supportive care seems to be warranted to protect and support the most vulnerable patient groups.”
US continues to lead deaths and confirmation. Russia is coming up – winter is coming!
The same cohorts but this should start changing as winter comes…
