Covid19mathblog.com
“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies.” CS Lewis
“It take nothing to join the crowd. It takes everything to stand alone.” Hans Hansen
Did you ever ask yourself how did so many people in society let things progress so bad – e.g. Nazi Germany camps Jews, US slavery/segregation, WWII Japanese encampments, US Eugenics Program, etc….? Obviously they state the intentions to being good for society – its not like they could say something else and get away with it? In the grand scheme of things this vaccine mandate certainly is not to those scale of issues – but it certainly starts to erode at ones personal freedom under the premise its good for society. IF the data was clear cut that it was good for the society – certainly it would be a lot more persuasive. I have tried to show multiple times just using data not emotions it is not the case – there are some good points and some bad points – its NOT CLEAR – so it should not erode our personal freedoms.
IF you think the following are mutually exclusive the narrative has likely gotten you: Pro-Science, Pro-Questioning Science, Pro Treatment, Pro Find the Source of the Virus, Pro Ventilation, Pro IVM, Pro-Data, Pro-Freedom, Pro-Persuasion with accountability, Pro Reviewing Sites/Information You don’t generally agree with, Pro-Vaccine to Elder and Comorbidity, Pro Selected Vaccination of Personal Choice for Younger and Healthy Adults and Children, Pro-endemic, Pro Healthy Lifestyle
Our government and the controlling science body – certainly have done a brilliant job on the messaging – many smart people who I follow for their independent thoughts on market and economic principles have joined in on the unvaxx vitriol bandwagon. Major press releases with egregious errors are allowed to fester as long as it pushes the right message – then a correction perhaps will be announced in the back bottom page – https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1446289780405424130?t=7FoCMM4RorW7i-HP9V3O_g&s=19
IF you don’t think there is a campaign to win your mental thoughts – think again – they have been studying the messaging to you since the beginning – https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04460703
Confirmation bias is big dopamine hit – makes you feel good you are thinking right. You need to constantly train your brain to think and relish the times when you can counter the mass thinking and have independent thought. It is very well possible mass thinking is also right but it should be driven empirically not emotionally – you have to be the Spock or Data in Star Trek – else if there is a campaign for society belief you will likely lose. Its no different in going to Target and Walmart and expecting to purchase 1 item and leave with less than a $20 receipt – there is a billion dollar plus marketing campaign attacking your psyche as soon as you step into the store.
As a person who builds models with lots of data its important to realize that an error does not live on its own – just like when you find 1 bug in your home it’s a certainty there are other bugs. The whole messaging of covid has many issues from the beginning. They were late on realization of airborne. Here we showed the data clearly showed that but they wanted to push the hand sanitizers and other mechanism. They still have not adopted any ventilation guidelines that have been suggested multiple times. The reasoning for this is the inconvenience of the data not aligning with the message. IF you can push the spread is coming from the unvaccinated then you can get more vaccine – but you sacrifice the conclusion of fixing our ventilation systems. As pointed out in last blog – the timing was impeccable in terms of hot south summer spread – and generally many states are less vaccinated in the South – but you can see its not like the South really budged in policy and now the transmission fell. It is the physics of the virus and our lifestyle – winter is coming.
The crazy idiotic message that natural immunity was somewhat INFERIOR to vaccine was incredulous. No one really needs a study to understand IF you can recover from a virus naturally the body immune system which has gone through thousands of years of evolution is superior to a recent mRna vaccine or any other type of vaccine. You can see they are losing this message – but where is the mea culpa from the government and science body?
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab884/6381561#.YWGhCytQ_Hc.twitter
“SARS-CoV-2-specific cellular and humoral immunities are durable at least until one year after disease onset.”
“Nick Karl, Pfizer Scientist: “When somebody is naturally immune — like they got COVID — they probably have more antibodies against the virus…When you actually get the virus, you’re going to start producing antibodies against multiple pieces of the virus…So, your antibodies are probably better at that point than the [COVID] vaccination.””
“The researchers caution that the benefits of stronger memory B cells after infection do not outweigh the risks that come with COVID-19. "While a natural infection may induce maturation of antibodies with broader activity than a vaccine does, a natural infection can also kill you," said study leader Michel Nussenzweig of Rockefeller University, in a statement. "A vaccine won’t do that and, in fact, protects against the risk of serious illness or death from infection."
So concern here about death but we know the young has barely any risk – should we really be vaccinating them when we could be vaccinating the adults in other parts of the world – and potentially actually have a net benefit for the child to get natural immunity?
The message in the beginning if you take the vaccine things will get back to normal – under the concept that transmission would be reduced. Wrong again…. https://dailysceptic.org/2021/10/10/vaccine-effectiveness-drops-again-now-as-low-as-minus-86-in-over-40s-latest-phe-data-shows/
“Strikingly, the (unadjusted) vaccine effectiveness (VE) in over-18s continues to drop. For those in their 40s it hits nearly minus-86% this week, down from minus-66% in last week’s report. This means the double-vaccinated in their 40s are now getting on for being almost twice as likely to be infected as the unvaccinated of the same age. Those in their 50s, 60s and 70s have similarly super-low VE estimates, while the unadjusted VE for those in their 30s goes negative for the first time, having been dropping for some weeks. For the under-18s, on the other hand – which is the group currently being vaccinated – it actually went up, from 84% to 88%.”
There is a big push to get the vaccine to EVERYONE no matter what age or health – as if EVERYONE has the same risk/reward profile. It was stated BECAUSE billions have taken it is so safe – yet we now see the benefit for the young and healthy who are barely impacted by covid are seeing heart issues. We have countries realizing the risk/reward is not there. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10073273/amp/Finland-joins-Sweden-Denmark-pausing-use-Moderna-COVID-19-vaccine-young-people.html?__twitter_impression=true
“Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in pausing use of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine in young people over fears the shots are causing rare heart inflammation”
“J&J’s one-shot COVID vaccine is linked to another ‘rare’ life-threatening blood clotting condition”
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109730
“The incidence of myocarditis, although low, increased after the receipt of the BNT162b2 vaccine, particularly after the second dose among young male recipients. The clinical presentation of myocarditis after vaccination was usually mild.”
Remember the fear of children causing covid spread even though study after study showed that’s not the case – then they said Delta would be different? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.06.21264467v1
“COVID-19 in UK school-aged children due to SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain B.1.617.2 resembles illness due to the Alpha variant B.1.1.7., with short duration and similar symptom burden.”
This study shows not even close to adults in fact 70% didn’t have LIVE culture – the PCR test down to 25 CT testing for fragments that will not transmit! https://www.cmaj.ca/content/193/17/E601
“Compared with adults, children with nasopharyngeal swabs that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were less likely to grow virus in culture, and had higher cycle thresholds and lower viral concentrations, suggesting that children are not the main drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.”
The hatred and the campaign to squash IVM was amazing. Then comes Molnupiravir by Merck – there was an initial celebration only to be re-messaged to have a mutually exclusive outcome of Pro-Vaccine or Pro-Treatment – no way you can be both? There is a control/change in the media which is presented in Matt Taibbi article which of course many now hate him for pointing out the hypocrisy and change – https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-cult-of-the-vaccine-neurotic?r=5mz1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=58888585
“As even Vox put it initially, molnupiravir could “help compensate for persistent gaps in Covid-19 vaccination coverage.”
Within a day, though, the tone of coverage turned. Writers began stressing a Yeah, but approach, as in, “Any new treatment is of course good, but get your fucking shot.” A CNN lede read, “A pill that could potentially treat Covid-19 is a ‘game-changer,’ but experts are emphasizing that it’s not an alternative to vaccinations.” The New York Times went with, “Health officials said the drug could provide an effective way to treat Covid-19, but stressed that vaccines remained the best tool.”
If you’re thinking it was only a matter of time before the mere fact of molnupiravir’s existence would be pitched in headlines as actual bad news, you’re not wrong: Marketwatch came out with “‘It’s not a magic pill’: What Merck’s antiviral pill could mean for vaccine hesitancy” the same day Merck issued its release. The piece came out before we knew much of anything concrete about the drug’s effectiveness, let alone whether it was “magic.”
Bloomberg’s morose “No, the Merck pill won’t end the pandemic” was released on October 2nd, i.e. one whole day after the first encouraging news of a possible auxiliary treatment whose most ardent supporters never claimed would end the pandemic.”
“In other words, it took less than 24 hours for the drug — barely tested, let alone released yet — to be accused of prolonging the pandemic. By the third day, mentions of molnupiravir in news reports nearly all came affixed to stern reminders of its place beneath vaccines in the medical hierarchy, as in the New York Times explaining that Dr. Anthony Fauci, who initially told reporters the new drug was “impressive,” now “warned that Americans should not wait to be vaccinated because they believe they can take the pill.””
“This lunacy started with the Great Lie Debate of 2016, when reporters and editors spent months publicly anguishing over whether to use “lie” in headlines of Donald Trump stories, then loudly congratulated themselves once they decided to do it. The most histrionic offender was the New York Times, previously famous for teaching readers to digest news in code (“he claimed” for years was Times-ese for “full of shit”) but now reasoned a “more muscular terminology,” connoting “a certain moral opprobrium,” was needed to distinguish the “dissembling” of a politician like Bill Clinton from Trump’s whoppers. “I did not have sexual relations with that woman” could be mere falsehood, but “I will build a great great wall” required language that “stands apart.”
The key term was moral opprobrium. Moralizing was exactly what journalists were once trained not to do, at least outside the op-ed page, but it soon became a central part of the job. When they used they word “lie,” the Times explained, they wanted us to know that was because “from the childhood schoolyard to the grave, this is a word neither used nor taken lightly.” Put another way, the Times didn’t want people reading about something Donald Trump said, grasping that it was a lie, and, say, chuckling about how ridiculous it was. If the New York Times sent the word “lie” up the flagpole, they now expected an appropriately solemn salute.
This was the beginning of an era in which editors became convinced that all earth’s problems derived from populations failing to accept reports as Talmudic law. It couldn’t be people were just tuning out papers for a hundred different reasons, including sheer boredom. It had to be that their traditional work product was just too damned subtle. The only way to avoid the certain evil of audiences engaging in unsupervised pondering over information was to eliminate all possibility of subtext, through a new communication style that was 100% literal and didactic. Everyone would get the same news and also be instructed, often mid-sentence, on how to respond.”
The point is context and prose is very engaging to the mind as many have discovered. The data however when looked and examined cannot tap the emotional psyche. This is why most hit pieces avoid data. Here is a recent BBC article bashing IVM – https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58170809.amp – just a prose discussion without many numbers and poorly cited studies. Here is a beautiful response to the article – note how much effort is required to bash a prose report and whether you actually want to hear this after a confirmation bias dopamine hit – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy7c_FHiEac
Whereas the limited pros article for IVM do try to show dates and data – https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/10/amazing-covid-19-cases-indonesia-plunge-government-authorizes-ivermectin-treatment/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=PostBottomSharingButtons&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons
Our own data shows Indonesia covid metrics has plummeted – the 7 day MA fatality rate is still somewhat high still under the peak and shows signs of coming down.
Here are the data sites for ProIVM – not quite as compelling in the emotional psyche – lots of data and charts – https://ivmmeta.com/ https://c19early.com/
AS noted several times risk/reward is clearly to take it.
Remember the other message about isolation and quarantine and how New Zealand was praised whereas Sweden was butchered….well look who has given up on their strategy – no mea culpa? – https://gizmodo.com/new-zealand-abandons-covid-zero-strategy-leaving-few-c-1847791560
“New Zealand will abandon its strategy of completely eliminating covid-19 from the country, adopting a new policy of learning to live with the virus and trying to achieve high vaccination rates, according to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at a press conference on Monday.”
Our data shows NZ confirmation rising now even beyond the 2020 peak!
Sweden – not perfect yet…too soon to celebrate – winter is coming!
All of this is like a comedy of errors – an agenda to control the hearts and mind of the population. The liberal policy makers have shifted to quite an Authoritarian setup with freedom of choice gone – my body my choice – is left to the way side as society impact though not proven clearly is sold as worth it. The most simplistic solution to reduce covid is pushed to the way side – the V word is Vaccine not Ventilation. Also lets not forget the simple message to get healthy? How many years do we have to wait to continue with the excuse getting healthy takes a long time?
The US continues to be on top even with 56% full vaccinated.
Europe looks to be the only one starting to grow – perhaps getting cold?
Georgia is third place in terms of death
See how the colder regions are leading in confirmation per capita?
