Covid19mathblog.com
Winter is coming and its likely bringing its coronavirus gang. As noted the physics of the virus needs to be taken into account – https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/10/covid-10-3-21/ Coincidently the vaccine rolled out as the weather improved across most of the country – perhaps giving too much credit to the vaccine. The South states saw an increase last few months as it got hot and people stayed inside with HVAC units internally sub 60F – this likely gave too much credit to Delta plus credit to pounce on the anti-vax South. All this time we could have found the root of transmission and fixed the issue – HVAC. Now we are getting cold and we are seeing signs it’s the weather and human behavior that matters. Hopefully 100% wrong but not good to base things on hope vs. data.
Washington very vaccinated yet record confirmation and record death even comparing to 2020.
Even within the State of Washington you can see crediting the vaccine to reduce transmission is not there. I have been noting this for a long time but perhaps I don’t offer enough credentials to interpret medical data – here is a recent Harvard study noting the same conclusion – https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7
“At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.”
“In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus.”
At least in Washington the vaccination seems to be helping at the extreme but perhaps that’s the human behavior at play the most vaccinated are the most germophobic?
Also seeing this in Oregon
Oregon county data also shows extreme bifurcation but in the middle its all over the place. Likely human behavior more important than vaccination for TRANSMISSION – please don’t infer anything else on this discussion.
Interesting to note the country that does have CO2 ppm standards in buildings actually now have more deaths from vaccine than covid – https://medicaltrend.org/2021/10/10/taiwan-death-from-covid-19-vaccination-exceeds-death-from-covid-19/
“Taiwan death from COVID-19 vaccination exceeds death from COVID-19. Taiwan’s death toll from COVID-19 vaccination exceeds death toll from COVID-19 for the first time.
(Observer Network News) On October 7th, the death toll after vaccination in Taiwan reached 852, while the death toll after the COVID-19 was diagnosed was 844. The number of deaths after vaccination exceeded the number of confirmed deaths for the first time.”
Interesting Taiwan Covid fatality rate actually climbed as they vaccinated.
This is less to do in the US given Astra vaccine study – but if related in anyway proves the vaccine does not reduce viral load as once thought and that asymptomatic likely leads to further transmission – https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537021004235
“Breakthrough Delta variant infections following Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccination may cause asymptomatic or mild disease, but are associated with high viral loads, prolonged PCR positivity and low levels of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies. Epidemiological and sequence data suggested ongoing transmission had occurred between fully vaccinated individuals.”
Vietnam had the summer spike too but fatality rate lower than last year
Summary of all the natural immunity studies just in case common sense wasn’t going to work: https://covidreason.substack.com/p/your-natural-immunity-cheat-sheet?r=7ikwa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=
Note Russia at only 31% vaccinated rate.
FL and TX stay on top for the US for deaths – but CA and OH moving up in confirmation ….winter is coming….
The shift in confirmation moving north.
