Covid19mathblog.com

Everyone celebrating the decline in confirmation in the country – but it was predictable…..if you understand how the transmission is occurring. Unfortunately mask and vaccination are not the end all – if it was we wouldn’t have been able to predict this decline in confirmation. It is our lifestyle and our behaviors which out do any reduction in probability (e.g. vaccination, mask, etc..). Let’s look at Florida with its recent drop in confirmation yet still having no mask mandates – and slowing vaccination rates. What could be contributing to this decline? Lets get off the political line and look at the reality – its temperature and the corresponding human behavior response to that temperature.

I know it’s the message that vaccine is the answer BUT it did not do much for transmission – as the county data in FL does not have a big bifurcation in counties with lots of vaccinations. There is some split in the data but certainly not worth making it as the number 1 priority to reduce transmission.

The number one policy should be confirmed and then implement guidelines to improve HVAC in order to reduce transmission. The following shows the avg FL temp vs. confirmation on weekly metric for the last two years – do you see a pattern?

For all of you celebrating the achievements of NY and CA for all their strict rules and regulations – you have been fooled by not looking at it seasonal. So many times I have noted this over and over the physics of the virus leads to Flu/Cold seasons (https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/10/covid-10-13-21/) – the outer lipid shell of the virus hardens around 60F making it more durable – this happens in the AC units set at 75! Winter is coming we need to fix this ASAP and stop arguing over policy/mandates that don’t do much to control transmission. Vaccines do a good job for deaths and hospitalization for the elder and multiple comorbidity people – it is not a one size fits all! HVAC modification will be a one size fits all solution!

On the news front – continued issues with Fauci statements. This article highlights the recent uncovering – https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/10/nih-admits-funding-risky-virus-research-in-wuhan

Best quote from the article:

““If I applied for funding to paint Central Park purple and was denied, but then a year later we woke up to find Central Park painted purple, I’d be a prime suspect,” said Jamie Metzl, a former executive vice president of the Asia Society, who sits on the World Health Organization’s advisory committee on human genome editing and has been calling for a transparent investigation into COVID-19’s origins.”

Russia has been increasing in confirmations and deaths – (getting colder in Russia?)

Russia vaccination rates are increasing as confirmations and death increasing.

Death are lagging confirmations in the states. CA confirmations top the country as FL drops big. (Colder?)

Its not a coincidence the highest confirmations per capita are now in the North part of the country. We need to stop with this mask and vaccine arguments and move to real solutions. 200K deaths are likely going to occur this winter per covid unless we change our trajectory to reduce transmission – noted on https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/09/covid-9-1-21-update/