Covid19mathblog.com
Lots to cover today – one of the things we discussed early on is covid vs. flu. No doubt covid is worse than the flu for generally all age class however its likely not AS bad as it seems with the limitations of the data. The data clearly shows its worse. The first table represents my attempt to match the season on season (age breakout was not available at that time so there is some manipulation) – vs the bottom table which is not a season on season but as of now date available https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics
It’s important to not let statistics incite your fears. Though the multiplier is large the base fatality rate from flu is relatively a small number. Also the limitations of the data are as follow – 18/19 flu season – not sure if it’s the best choice? Obviously you had flu shots for 18/19 and we are compare a winter with generally no flue shot. In addition the 18/19 flu dataset clearly notes symptomatic (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html) as noted several times before we have NEVER attempted to test asymptomatic carriers of cold or flu – no one would consider “wasting” their time to get tested – now for covid many asymptomatic people are being tested – many going into hospitals for other treatments tested. Also many deaths are tested for covid – did we test for flu when someone died before? The truth IF you normalize behavior of testing and confirmations perhaps lies in between the table above – nonetheless worse than the flu therefore rightly deserves more attention than the flu.
However the attention should be allocated to what works. When can we admit and tell the public we were wrong about the vaccines as a great way to reduce transmission? When can we admit the vaccines are not delivering their efficacy as promised? The improvements from the mass rollout starting in March was potentially a significant “improvement” of fatality rates because the viral load was limited as we were outdoor more and the temperature prevented encapsulation of the virus. Temperature played a large role – as gas and power traders know – you cannot analyze any data without weather normalization!
Where could we have allocated some of our resources – early on we noted ventilation. Ventilation is key – its what causes infection in general – the concept of viral load. This is why a flight – a contained area but still well ventilated does not see huge transmission noted all the way back May 2020 https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/05/covid-5-19-20/
“Perhaps plane travel is “safe”. This study shows many long flights taken by sick people but they don’t highlight any significant spread in the plane unlike restaurant, gym, or office studies. Is it because the plane is relatively “safe” or was they didn’t study it hard enough? I am going to be optimistic and hope its because it is safe. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30314-5/fulltext “
““Extensive contact tracing involved the international flights from Munich to Shanghai (patient 0 on Jan 22, 2020) and from Munich to Tenerife (patient 12 on Jan 28, 2020). As of May 2, no further cases have been identified among flight passengers or other (personal) contacts.”
I would really like more details on the flight HVAC system. Clearly IF airline trip for 14h and 15 min travel time in an enclosed environment can contain the virus from not spreading compared to the restaurant, gym, and office building that has been highlighted – we need to replicate this!
Multiple times noted that we should have guidelines for CO2 levels – yet the message is vaccinated & wear mask – vaccine/mask mandates – this will solve everything…..but it didn’t – if it did moot point! If we just looked at ventilation you will get reduced viral load – need a study because common sense is not working – Swedish study presents. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/society/study-shows-benefit-of-regular-classroom-ventilation/47179498?s=09
“The correlation is clear: “more students and teaching staff were infected with the corona virus in classrooms with poor air quality than in rooms that are regularly ventilated”, EMPA wrote on ThursdayExternal link. The badly ventilated rooms – 60% of those studied, said canton Graubünden – came out with six times as many cases as the better ventilated ones.”
Also from better ventilation you get better attendance and test scores! https://www.aivc.org/sites/default/files/155_0.pdf
“The results predict that reducing CO2 concentration from 2,000 ppm to 1,000 ppm
(equivalent to about 2.5 times higher outdoor air supply rate) would improve performance on psychological tests and
school tasks on average by 12% (as regards the speed at which the teasks are performed) and by 3% (as regards errors
made while performing the task. The performance on rating schemes will be improved by 1.3%. This change and will
increase the number of pupils passing exams by 12%and is further estimated to result in about 6 out of 100 pupils
improving their performance and to reduce absence by 0.5 day per student in a 200 days long school year.”
Talking about another focus beyond vaccine and mask the govt should have endeavored on a get healthy message – which also gets multiple benefits beyond Covid. Many used the excuse that it takes so long – we are going into 2 yrs now! Clearly health played a big role in covid hospitalization and deaths – once again this was identified very early on! Here back in May of 2020 – https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/05/covid-5-14-20/
“ask to quarantine comorbidities we know are fatal with Covid-19 (Hypertension, Diabetes, BMI>30) – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184?guestAccessKey=906e474e-0b94-4e0e-8eaa-606ddf0224f5&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=042220”
Back in May 19th 2020 – https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196(20)30477-8/fulltext
““Several of these obesity-related morbidities are associated with greater risk for death with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 penetrates human cells through direct binding with angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors on the cell surface. Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 expression in adipose tissue is higher than that in lung tissue, which means that adipose tissue may be vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. Obese patients also have worse outcomes with COVID-19 infection, including respiratory failure, need for mechanical ventilation, and higher mortality. Clinicians need to be more aggressive when treating obese, especially severely obese, patients with COVID-19 infection.”
What was done to address this? Quarantine….close gyms but leave liquor store open? Mask and vaccination will solve it…..
Now once again if you need beyond common sense that being obese is not good here is a recent study – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.24.465626v1
“We further demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 RNA is detectable in adipocytes in COVID-19 autopsy cases and is associated with an inflammatory infiltrate. Collectively, our findings indicate that adipose tissue supports SARS-CoV-2 infection and pathogenic inflammation and may explain the link between obesity and severe COVID-19.
One sentence summary Our work provides the first in vivo evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in human adipose tissue and describes the associated inflammation.”
The push to vaccine was so quick yet we lost the push for treatment. Countries outside US are slowing down vaccination – https://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/thl-recommends-coronavirus-vaccinations-for-at-risk-children-aged-5-to-11-years-for-the-entire-age-group-require-more-information-on-safety?redirect=%2Fen%2Fweb%2Fthlfi-en%2Fwhats-new&s=09
“The Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) recommends starting coronavirus vaccinations for children who are 5 to 11 years of age and belong to a risk group as soon as vaccines are available.
Vaccinations are also recommended for children who are in contact with severely immunodeficient persons. Vaccinations of children who do not belong to risk groups cannot, however, begin before the Government Decree on voluntary COVID-19 vaccinations has been amended.
THL does not yet propose vaccinations for other children aged 5 to 11 years. All children in this age group will be offered the possibility of getting a coronavirus vaccine when more information on the safety of vaccinations for the age group and especially on rare adverse effects has been accumulated.”
Cause to pause for youth vaccination? https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.056583?s=09#.YbNSTabs884.twitter
“Conclusions:Most cases of suspected COVID-19 vaccine myocarditis occurring in persons <21 years have a mild clinical course with rapid resolution of symptoms. Abnormal findings on cMRI were frequent. Future studies should evaluate risk factors, mechanisms, and long-term outcomes.”
If more treatment options show up less need to push vaccine? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10281175/Gum-laced-plant-grown-protein-reduce-COVID-19-transmission-95.html?s=09
“Gum laced with a plant-grown protein is found to reduce COVID-19 transmission by 95% after trapping and neutralizing the virus in the person’s saliva, Penn State University scientists find
The cinnamon-flavored gum is infused with ACE2, which is a plant-grown protein
The protein traps the virus in the saliva and then neutralizes it
Testing of the gum shows this innovation can reduce transmission by 95%”
“The Food and Drug Administration authorized the first injectable monoclonal antibody cocktail for long-term prevention of Covid-19 among people with weakened immune systems before they have been exposed to the coronavirus.
The FDA issued an emergency use authorization Wednesday for AstraZeneca’s antibody cocktail, Evusheld, for what is known as pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, against Covid-19.”
“The federal government has an agreement with AstraZeneca to buy 700,000 doses of Evusheld, which will be available at no cost to eligible patients. The first doses should be available “very soon,” with all doses delivered in a few months, Dobber said.
While the drug is free to patients, health care facilities may charge to administer it, so people could still incur some out-of-pocket costs”
Note the last part ….IF its no cost is this universal healthcare now? How much did they pay for that? Did a search I couldn’t find it….
We have beeen looking at confirmation per capita vs. vaccination rate to show no statistical connection – in fact now slightly indicating the more vaccinated the more transmission vs no correlation. Temp R2=0.33
Death rates and fatality view still not much improvement with more vaccination!
On a county basis there is just no clear data showing vaccination rates improve transmission nor even deaths now!
Its not looking too good out there. The positive thing is the weather outlook for US, Asia, and Europe is some warming up relative to normals.
Europe has more confirmations than anytime. The positive thing is death is still lower. Notice how S. America just dropped out as they go into there warm weather period.
Our Omicron watch countries continue to show strong confirmations – S. Africa is jumping up but still way lower than the European countries.
The whole unvaccinated southern state story is getting blown up now that the weather has shifted – TX and FL are falling and the highly vaccinated northern states under increasing issues.
In the last 7 days the 85.8% vaccinated county of Dewey S. Dakota is seeing the highest confirmations per capita in the country!
In the last 7 days deaths dispersion of death per capita is not showing any significant improvement per vaccination rate.
