Covid 12/17/21

Covid19mathblog.com

A very interesting podcase was done on Joe Rogan with Dr. Peter McCullough – many statements resonated with the data we review and many statements are questionable but certainly eye opening. Many people’s takeaway will be the discussion of treatment being held back. However I believe there are statements that are equally or more concerning. Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0aZte37vtFTkYT7b0b04Qz?si=-uGYLt_YTtG97sS1ddDdJQ

Who is Dr. Peter McCullough – Is he grifting? Whats the gain? – https://www.uscjournal.com/authors/peter-mccullough

“Recognition

Dr. McCullough received the International Vicenza Award for Critical Care Nephrology for his outstanding work and contribution in the area of cardiorenal syndromes. He has also been a recipient of the Simon Dack Award from the American College of Cardiology, and his works have appeared in the New England Journal of Medicine, Journal of the American Medical Association, and other prestigious journals worldwide. He has been an invited lecturer at the New York Academy of Sciences, the National Institutes of Health, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the European Medicines Agency, and the U.S. Congressional Oversight Panel.⁵

Areas of Speciality

Coronary Artery Disease. Chronic Kidney Disease as a Cardiovascular Risk State, High Blood Pressure. High Cholesterol, Hypertension, Sports Cardiology”

3 hour highlights below – paraphrased from the conversation – not direct quote

~50 [Asymptomatic spread does not occur – therefore stop testing asymptomatic” “Cant get it twice with natural immunity – dead virus and/or flu test that cant tell the difference]

~100 [Clinical trails for vaccine was biased and not represented of real life – hence showed 90% efficacy but that’s not reality] – THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH WHAT OUR DATA SHOWS PERHAPS 60-80%.

~108 [Obesity not good for cytokine storms as the virus targets fat cell therefore greater fat greater fuel for the virus]

~118 [Vaccine is not a treatment – Monoclonal is a treatment and it works!]

~125[18K deaths from vaccine 30K disabled from the vaccine per verified VAERS – there is risk to take the vaccine small but not 0]

~137[Myocarditis 12-18 is up – 13K myocarditis with 86% of those being hospitalized – an average year around 500-700 per finish study done before covid – Vaccine does go to the heart]

~150[Progressive accumulation of the spike protein may not be a good thing – body will not get rid of it particularly if you are boosting yourself ] – bioaccumulation takes time and impacts are unknown at this time – we learned this from asbestos, cigarettes, alcohol, etc….

~156[No data that shows covid vaccine protect others]

~159[99% unvaccinated in hospital was a fake news talking point but was too late to take back]

~204[Being hospitalized prevented many from taking monoclonal antibody]

~220[Noted he got the alpha variant and been dealing with delta patients and never got sick – cant get covid again – impact is large – why isolate nursing home patients from their loved ones if they already had it]

~238[4-6x to get myocarditis in children with vaccine vs. than from covid – the myocarditis from covid is not an issue for the youth]

Big question I got from the interview and looking for an answer – he noted he got the alpha variant and recovered – he also notes he took the vaccine along with his kids particularly before going to India – yet he stated cant get it twice – so why take it? Was it just because of restrictions – or timeline?

Many of his statements IF true are shocking and changes the approach. Our data has shown the efficacy is not as good as initially promise but still continues to improve the odds of death. We have also noted the data does not show the covid jab does not prevent transmission very early on. Once one can get off the bandwagon that the covid jab is not a society gain – then one can see there is a risk associated with the jab – and that there are certain conditions (previous zoster, family heart issues, historical reactions to vaccine,etc… ) then the jab should be a doctor consult to weigh the risk/reward not an all encompassing jab or else cant be a part of society.

Got to love the internet to obtain knowledge – here is a great discussion on variant and biology and evolution and testing less sensationalist than Joe Rogan but very informative – both very supportive of vaccines – https://youtu.be/oWDGNrOqQfQ

Paul Turner Rachel Carson Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Yale University

  • Variant should be getting less impactful per evolution
  • Discussion on booster vs. vaccination – sided with vaccinate the world over boosting.
  • Kids getting natural immunity close call….

Michael Mina Epidemiologist, Immunologist, Physician. Harvard University

  • Pushing for testing – and concluding endemic
  • Believes in asymptomatic testing but using rapid test NOT PCR
  • Germany test only $1 – vs. US much higher
  • Testing is public health tool
  • Rapid testing focused on infectious now – whereas PCR test is not about answering am I infectious now
  • Reality the amount of virus you have is a very short time period
  • Don’t send the whole class of school home
  • Use rapid test right before an event the most effective approach….3 days before etc..is not right
  • Does not support vaccine for stopping transmission – but certainly helps for fatality – viral load for vaccination /unvaccinated equal
  • Outbreak or waste water monitoring – is when one should test more
  • No scenario that PCR test is better tool than rapid test for public health
  • Breakthrough cases are not rare

Japanese study highlight the risk of the vaccine – in this case Pfizer – starts on pdf page 8 https://www.npojip.org/english/MedCheck/Med%20Check%20Tip-20-2021-08&12.pdf

“We analysed 196 death cases reported after inoculation of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (COMIRNATY) by

June 9 in Japan. Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare (MHLW) virtually denied the causality of all cases

without conducting appropriate epidemiological analysis.”

“Mortality odds ratio (MOR) was calculated as the indicator of disproportionality in cause of death. We compared

odds of cause of death after inoculation and death in Japanese vital statistics in 2019 as control non-vaccinated

population. MOR was obtained by using the numbers of death from non-cardiovascular system as the reference

causes for two age groups: vaccinated medical workers (20 to 74 year of age) and elderly ( ≧ 65years) separately.

●Of 31 deaths among vaccinated medical workers (both sexes), 26 (84%) died from cardiovascular diseases, such

as stroke, myocardial infarction, venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism (VT/PE) and heart failure, while 22%

died in the general population. MOR is 19.4 (p<0.0001). MOR of hemorrhagic stroke (40.7) and VT/PE (114.0) were

extremely high.

● Of the reported vaccinated elderly death cases, 69% died from cardiovascular causes, while 26% died in the

general population. MOR is 5.9 (p<0.0001). MOR of hemorrhagic stroke (12.8) and VT/PE (24.9) were also very high.

● These suggest that COVID-19 vaccination is closely associated with the risk of death from cardiovascular causes,

especially hemorrhagic stroke and VT/PE.”

Concluded risk is real in the vaccine at a “rare” level but then tried to relate it to the covid infection – but as noted in the podcast above lots of clarification is needed when you start comparing. The main point there is a risk – a doctor consult and looking at lifestyle and history seems like a reasonable path. Particularly if you cannot conclude there is a societal gain there should be zero mandates as not all SHOULD get the vaccine. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0?s=09

“Vaccination for SARS-CoV-2 in adults was associated with a small increase in the risk of myocarditis within a week of receiving the first dose of both adenovirus and mRNA vaccines, and after the second dose of both mRNA vaccines.”

Because people refused to just analyze the data and use some common sense – we have to wait for studies – here is another study confirming transmission is independent of vaccine status as human behavior is more likely the driver – mechanical solutions likely more effective than vaccine – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext

“The SAR in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% (95% CI 18–33) for fully vaccinated individuals compared with 38% (24–53) in unvaccinated individuals.”

“Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. Host–virus interactions early in infection may shape the entire viral trajectory.”

Makes sense Moderna should be more likely to have heart issues 3X the dosage – at same time seems to be the most effective to – balanced risk/reward – https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-covid-19-shot-more-likely-cause-heart-inflammation-than-pfizers-study-2021-12-17/

“Moderna’s (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccine is up to four times more likely to cause inflammation of the heart muscle, a very rare side effect, than its rival vaccine from Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE.N), , according to a Danish study published in the British Medical Journal late on Thursday.”

Vaccination even high levels does not equate to no transmission – https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/everything-to-know-about-bulls-covid-19-outbreak/2704819/

“Alize Johnson on Monday became the 10th Bulls player to enter protocols in the last 13 days,”

“The Bulls are a fully vaccinated team. Vučević said after Saturday’s loss to the Heat that "most" of the team has received booster shots.”

Collateral damage from policies are real – perhaps “other lives” less important? – https://fee.org/articles/47-000-more-people-died-of-this-disease-in-2020-due-to-lockdowns-world-health-organization-reports/?utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=2021_FEEDotOrg&s=09

“The World Health Organization (WHO) just reported that pandemic measures delayed and disrupted medical care for the global malaria crisis, leading to tens of thousands of additional deaths. An astounding 14 million additional malaria cases were recorded in 2020 compared to 2019, the WHO says. So, too, we saw 69,000 more malaria deaths in 2020 compared to 2019, 47,000 of which the organization says are directly attributable to disrupted diagnosis and treatment stemming from government pandemic restrictions.”

Amazing how long it takes for the mainstream to believe the virus was likely manmade and all those people who were criticized as conspirators – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10313053/Covid-19-UK-Wuhan-lab-leak-likely-origin-Covid-MPs-told.html?s=09

“The Wuhan lab leak is now the most likely origin of the coronavirus pandemic because Beijing tried to cover it up, MPs were told today.

Harvard scientist Dr Alina Chan told the Science and Technology Select Committee that it is ‘reasonable’ to believe that Covid was genetically engineered in China.

She also said that the Chinese Communist Party’s cover-up of the initial outbreak in Wuhan two years ago and attempts to sabotage the World Health Organisation’s inquiry into the origins of the pandemic made the lab-leak theory likely.”

There is good news. The data would indicate that the virus is less lethal and/or we are getting better at treating as you can see the the 30 day death/confirmation is less than the fatality rate across the board

Europe and US flattening in confirmation

For US we shouldn’t be cautious on the reason why flattening as the temperature in the US is milder than last year.

NY leading the confirmation even though one of the highest vaccinated state.

So Tompkins, NY with 81% vaccinated second highest transmission rate in the country – confirmed/Capita for the last 7 days.

State view – temperature more indication of spread

Vaccine helps the individual in reducing the odds of death