Covid19mathblog.com

What is the ultimate goal of a covid mitigation strategy? Low fatality, low hospitalization, and low transmission in order to go on with our daily lives similar to before Covid – and hopefully in a collegial and loving way. We always need to keep those goals in mind and not be stuck to how or what we did to get to where we are. In the beginning, data was scarce risk/reward dictated caution to the level of a Hollywood apocalyptic movie. As data came in it is only appropriate to adjust to the data. Coverups and not admitting faults never lead to good outcomes – its like as a kid when you broke something of importance and you tried to patch it up and not tell anyone – this strategy in the long run causes more trouble than confronting the issue at the time as lies likely lead to more lies – or at least perceived by the parent.

Back in June (https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/06/covid-6-2-21/ ) it was noted the side effects of vaccine would be much greater than we knew it to be from what was advertised. This was not so hard to predict – when in the history of time has a pharmaceutical drug come out ahead of all the side effects possible? Another interesting discussion on Pharma by Harvard Professor John Abramson MD, MS on Joe Rogan – https://open.spotify.com/episode/64ZsPU8e2CHvWQM9lqnLEY?si=gX5N55NOSqajnxsHnbeF7w – important points Pharma #1 goal is to make money not saves lives #2 85% of all clinical trials are paid by pharm – the peer review is only reviewing the analytical summary of the clinical trial – the raw data is not presented or given – so the big assumption is the analytical results of the trial is appropriately done – no one gets access to the data without a long litigation process. Also to note Pfizer big penalties show they are not altruistic – https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-largest-health-care-fraud-settlement-its-history.

I bring this up not to be shot down and accused of being an anti-vax or anti-science – I am a man of science – BS Chemical Engineering. I bring this up to show one needs to think on your own – as the best person to understand ones self interest is you and perhaps your doctor for medical issues. Many females complained early on about the vaccine impact on menstruation as noted on 6/2/21 – at that time there was concerted effort to hush the issue. A label of antivax was thrown around for those who would question – eventually too many people caused the NIH to do a study – and the results confirmed the vaccine does impact – https://journals.lww.com/greenjournal/Fulltext/9900/Association_Between_Menstrual_Cycle_Length_and.357.aspx?s=09

“Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination is associated with a small change in cycle length but not menses length.”

In terms of implications of what the conclusions mean the study did not delve too much into this. However the point is there is something going on from a shot that was administered in your arm. Originally many tried to blame the stress of covid not the vaccine

“Our results cannot be explained by generalized pandemic stress because our unvaccinated control group saw no changes over a similar time period. Our findings are consistent with a recent analysis of 18,076 Natural Cycles application users before and during the pandemic that also demonstrated no population-level cycle timing disruptions due to pandemic stress.”

“Our sample size is also sufficiently large to identify small differences, even 1 day, in cycle and menses length that may be of interest to individuals but might not rise to the level of clinical concern (8 days or more) or trigger a medical evaluation for secondary amenorrhea (no menses for 3 months).8,26 However, for an individual, small cycle changes can cause concern or raise hopes, especially if avoiding or planning for pregnancy, and this level of detail will likely be valuable.”

“Questions remain about other possible changes in menstrual cycles, such as menstrual symptoms, unscheduled bleeding, and changes in the quality and quantity of menstrual bleeding.”

Individual point is important – ONCE AGAIN individually this needs to be evaluated and understood. This is not a one size fits all. What other potential vaccine adverse effects do we not know? What is the impact on the vaccine on youth development? At least some are changing their stance on the youth now – with a not one size fits all – low risk kids should not get the jab – https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1547050/covid-vaccine-JCVI-omicron-delta-myocarditis?s=09

“More than thirty doctors, scientists and MP’s have signed a joint letter to the government’s vaccine watchdog urging it to "reassess" the Covid vaccine rollout for healthy 12-15 year olds following new data showing potentially serious harms of the jab are likely to outweigh any potential benefits.”

The current vaccines DO NOT have a societal value when it comes to mitigating transmission. A secondary argument time and time again is the unvaccinated clogging up the ICU and hospitals. However the fact is perhaps the majority of the issues is not being vaccinated status but the well-being of the individual – when 85% of the deaths have 4 or more comorbidity (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0258154 )the win-win solution is not vaccination for all but a targeted message for those in that situation to take vaccine AND get healthy to reduce comorbidity – this strategy WOULD eliminate MOST of the hospital concerns while not jeopardizing freedom of choice for the masses and lead to long-term benefits beyond covid.

All this time we could have done the logical step to classify Covid hospitalization from and with…..now they are doing it? Better late than never? Just to clarify this point as noted several times NEVER in the history of medical science have we ever tried to quantify at this scale how much a virus is in the public. Think about the flu – would you even go in and confirm that you have a flu if you had a fever one day and recovered – much less if it was a sniffle or asymptomatic. The likelihood of having a flu and going into the ER because of an accident likely very high during flu season but you would never know because no one cares unless symptomatic. Now everyone is tested – its our first foray into understanding how abundant is a virus in society.

NY is showing those going to hospitals 43% IS NOT FROM COVID but have covid upon testing. https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-updates-new-yorkers-states-progress-combating-covid-19-131?s=09

The fact remains treatment policies of go home and wait to see if it gets bad then come to hospital is just an awful strategy. This is a death ridden strategy. For many absolutely no issue – but the ones who are in the unfortunate camp this is a potential death sentence. We know there are antiviral treatments with limited risk from side effects and cost. Lowering the viral load is the key. IF you believe the many who note its not the virus that kills you but the allergic reaction to the remaining spike protein in your body – you want to keep the viral load down – therefore less particles to be allergic to afterwards. Long covid is speculated to come from the issue of antibodies – once again the generation of these is a function of viral load – reduce viral load perhaps reduce the amount of antibodies causing long term implications – https://health.ucdavis.edu/newsroom/news/headlines/antibodies-mimicking-the-virus-may-explain-long-haul-covid-19-rare-vaccine-side-effects/2021/11?s=09

Part of the kitchen sink strategy I used and I believe Joe Rogan used was Quercetin which you can buy without a prescription on Amazon –

https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1729/12/1/66/htm

“Our analysis revealed that complete clinical improvement in the quercetin group was recorded at 7 days, and at 17 days in the placebo group. In fact, the subject in the intervention group was negative at 10 days, while the 4 subjects in the placebo group had a negative swab after 10 + 7 days. None of the patients required hospitalization.”

“A recent article by Lee [2] and a previous review by Shi [3] reported that symptomatic COVID-19 infection is associated with a first phase of prevalent immune involvement. Subsequently, a second phase is characterized by a cytokine storm and macrophage activation syndrome.

We, therefore, suppose that quercetin is involved in the first phase, activating the immune system, and counteracting cytokines storm and senescent cells. Recent data support the use of quercetin, and in particular its formulation in the phytosome, as a promising ingredient for the mitigation of COVID-19 manifestations. New scientific papers have been published adding evidence that reinforce this remarkable potential asset, such as a study where quercetin was reported to be a mitigation agent for COVID-19 on the basis of genomic analysis in human cells [16]. Moreover, the Lee paper cited above reported Quercetin Phytosome® as possible senolytic agent that is suitable for the management of COVID-19 [2]. Briefly, senescent cells can be considered to be a therapeutic target in COVID-19, whose early elimination might mitigate the course of the disease. Known senolytic compounds (i.e., mavitoclax and the combination of dasatinib + quercetin) were tested in SARS-CoV-2-infected animals using only the solvent as placebo control. Animals with senolytic interventions presented a substantial reduction in senescent cells in their respiratory tract and a dramatic reduction in SASP cytokines in blood serum.”

It is important to note the first phase therefore you cant take this by the time you go to the hospital to see positive results. This is just awful we don’t have home treatment plans by now and that you have to resort to listening to Joe Rogan or even someone like myself who happens to come across these studies and weighs the risk/reward benefit.

At least some are having a change in strategy and realizing the past strategy did not produced what was expected – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/08/end-mass-jabs-and-live-with-covid-says-ex-head-of-vaccine-taskforce?s=09

“End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce”

“Covid should be treated as an endemic virus similar to flu, and ministers should end mass-vaccination after the booster campaign, the former chairman of the UK’s vaccine taskforce has said.

With health chiefs and senior Tories also lobbying for a post-pandemic plan for a straining NHS, Dr Clive Dix called for a major rethink of the UK’s Covid strategy, in effect reversing the approach of the past two years and returning to a “new normality”.

“We need to analyse whether we use the current booster campaign to ensure the vulnerable are protected, if this is seen to be necessary,” he said. “Mass population-based vaccination in the UK should now end.””

Proof of what was sold was not what was delivered and the messaging has changed but no admitting to the initial strategy of all vaccine approach did not work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZMNwCFnyjs

(admitted could do without the music and the last few clips – but the initial clips are real and unadulterated the initial strategy failed.)

We need to change strategy offer pre-treatment solution along with ventilation and health initiatives AND also now that many will have natural immunity – it’s time we acknowledge the value of natural immunity so we can get back to our daily lives.

Amazing amount of confirmations in the US and UK.

UK confirmations are the highest ever – the good news deaths are still relatively low

Same can be said for the US – always suspect on the latest data point – likely revised later.

Our initial Omicron watch countries are not showing a reduction in confirmation

NY has confirmed over 20% of the population – now equivalent to being on the Princess Diamond.

At this pace deaths will exceed the initial high forecast done back in September. A large piece of the analysis that was off was the extent of confirmations this year vs. last year.