Covid19mathblog.com
Continuing with our school mask mandate analysis – time consuming to map the county/school district policy. Here is Arkansas. Once again any county with mix policy not in chart. Again we show that school mask mandates do not assist in reducing county transmission. In fact the lowest counties have no school mask policy.
The other thing realized IF a state had all school districts have a mask mandate – AND IF mask mandates are a silver bullet and did a significant job in reducing transmission then we should see many counties bunched up. There shouldn’t be a large difference in transmission rate among counties. Unfortunately this is not the case for MA. Likely masking kids are not effective compared to other actions. Allowing vaccinated to bars and sports events – but masking school kids – is it because it makes policy makers feel like something is being done? Unfortunately that feeling is not being translated to reality. It is best to study WHY the lower transmitted counties are doing better and figure that out – its not school mask policy!
NY same story but even shows more clearly more vaccinated more transmission -Note: New York data point is suspect due to the population count likely over counted per overlap with Queens Bronx etc… One of the few exceptions in DB but NYC is treated differently.
Speaking of seeing increasing transmission in vaccinated counties – what could cause this? Take a look at the testimony by Dr. Ryan Cole. From all accounts he seems to be a very credible expert – “medical degree from the Medical College of Virginia at Virginia Commonwealth University, where he was president of the student family practice association and a research associate in an immunology lab….5 years in training at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, completing his residency in Anatomic and Clinical Pathology, as well as a fellowship in Surgical pathology, serving as chief fellow in his final year….2004 he founded Cole Diagnostics, an independent, full-service medical laboratory in Boise, Idaho, and is the Chief Medical Officer and Laboratory Director. He is a board certified Anatomic and Clinical pathologist with a subspecialty training and 20 years experience in dermatopathology and particular interest in molecular diagnostics. Dr. Cole is licensed in states from coast to coast, and serves patients and clinicians across the country by providing accurate and timely diagnoses. Cole Diagnostics processes and reports out approximately 40,000 blood and biopsy patient samples annually. In the last year, the lab has handled over 100,000 COVID testing samples.”
A very important point is around 3.30 when he is talking about transmission – he notes the vaccine is negative effecting – vaccinated have higher rates of covid vs. from those who already got infected – those who have natural immunity superior once again. Vaccine does not neutralize the area where the virus exist. The reason is the shot in your arm does not create a high level of secretory IGA which is in the mucosal membrane. The natural infected has higher IGA. Vaccinated have a high level of the virus in the nasal/oral cavity the source of transmission! Add that with the behavior “I am vaccinated I am allowed to do what the unvaccinated cant – lets go bar, club, sport events, concerts…etc – a little sniffle no big deal I am vaccinated” – could certainly support higher vaccinated counties seeing more transmission.
In my quest to verify – here is a recent study – Dec 23 2021 which talks about the mucosal immune response to the vaccine is limited vs. prior infection – note they conclude to add this into the second generation of vaccine – why do that if it doesn’t matter – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(21)00582-X/fulltext
“The mRNA BNT162b2 vaccination elicits a strong systemic immune response by drastically boosting neutralizing antibodies development in serum, but not in saliva, indicating that at least oral mucosal immunity is poorly activated by this vaccination protocol, thus failing in limiting virus acquisition upon its entry through this route.”
“Mucosal humoral immunity is mainly constituted by secretory IgA (sIgA), which play an important role in host defense against respiratory pathogens, as SARS-CoV-2.10 sIgA may prevent SARS-CoV-2 adhesion to target epithelial cells via neutralization of the coronavirus Spike protein or binding to the SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid protein.11 Furthermore, salivary sIgA might represent a non-invasive tool to stratify the population into different risk categories and inform individual and collective decisions relating to appropriate vaccine prioritization”
“On the contrary, 60% of virus-exposed subjects before vaccination (here designed as seropositive or SP) developed NAb in their saliva after vaccine administration. Indeed, in this group the increase of salivary IgA was more pronounced, and the serum/saliva IgA ratio was ten-fold higher than in unexposed individuals. This observation suggests that in subjects with previous SARS-CoV-2 natural infection the presence of some “mucosal” immunity mirrors the activation of B cells that can switch toward the production of IgA after vaccination, as also suggested by recent reports.”
“…reconsidering the strategy of vaccination to prevent not only the severe disease but the viral infection (i.e., the so-called ‘sterilizing immunity’), should represent the goal for the generation of second line COVID-19 vaccines, aimed to reinforce the mucosal immune response”
Other key points he supports IVM and used it on his brother….also noted he has been censored – even threaten with medical license…loss of business because loss of insurance company coverage….so sad.
Key point in discussion above – which has been noted before here – the secret was going to be in the nasal cavity – likely a vaccine that starts there would be the most effective against covid. Also being quarantined in a super clean environment is not advised for those healthy.
Speaking of censorship – I suspect a lot of people will be ashamed of their actions when the smoke settles. The right approach is not censorship but doing a better job of presenting information and being more genuine in your reasoning/motives. I don’t think ANYONE including this blog got 100% correct. It is about continuingly learning and growing. The first biggest step in learning is the ability to see where you were wrong and understand why. Denial of the fact is futile. Matt Taibbi surmises the issue with censorship very well – https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-folly-of-pandemic-censorship
“The objections mainly center around Joseph Mercola, Alex Berenson, and Robert Malone. There are issues with the specific critiques of each, but those aren’t the point. Every one of these campaigns revolves around the same larger problem: would-be censors misunderstanding the basic calculus of the freedom of speech.
Even in a society with fairly robust protections, as ours once was, the most dangerous misinformation is always, without exception, official.
Whether it’s WMDs or the Gulf of Tonkin fiasco or the missile gap or the red scare or the twenty-year occupation of Afghanistan, the worst real-world disasters always turn out to be driven or enabled by official falsehoods.”
“One does not need to be a medical expert to see that the FDA, CDC, the NIH, as well as the White House (both under Biden and Trump) have all been untruthful, or wrong, or inconsistent, about a spectacular range of issues in the last two years.
NIAID director Anthony Fauci has told three different stories about masks, including an episode in which he essentially claimed to have lied to us for our own good, in order to preserve masks for frontline workers — what Slate called one of the “Noble lies about Covid-19.” Officials turned out to be wrong about cloth masks anyway. Here is Fauci again on the issue of what to tell the public about how many people would need to be vaccinated to achieve “herd immunity,” casually explaining the logic of lying to the public for its sake:
When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent. Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, “I can nudge this up a bit,” so I went to 80, 85.
We’ve seen sudden changes in official positions on the efficacy of ventilators and lockdowns, on the dangers (or lack thereof) of opening schools, and on the risks, however small, of vaccine side effects like myocarditis. The CDC also just released data showing natural immunity to be more effective in preventing hospitalization and in preventing infection than vaccination. The government had previously said, over and over, that vaccination is preferable to natural immunity (here’s NIH director Francis Collins telling that to Bret Baier unequivocally in August). This was apparently another “noble lie,” designed to inspire people to get vaccinated, that mostly just convinced people to wonder if any official statements can be trusted.”
“Censors have a fantasy that if they get rid of all the Berensons and Mercolas and Malones, and rein in people like Joe Rogan, that all the holdouts will suddenly rush to get vaccinated. The opposite is true. If you wipe out critics, people will immediately default to higher levels of suspicion. They will now be sure there’s something wrong with the vaccine. If you want to convince audiences, you have to allow everyone to talk, even the ones you disagree with. You have to make a better case.”
Seriously how hard would it be to make a better case – the government has so much data at their disposal – assuming they are not trying to swim against the data the case should not be hard. The government has more resources than any substack….$2.5 million that’s trivial. CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, even FOX all have so much more at their disposal than any substack. MAKE A BETTER CASE make society better. Why censor? Make them look illegitimate – or perhaps even ignore them IF they really are out there – no need for name calling and derogatory comments e.g. Horse wormer (imagine the truth comes out that IVM helps perhaps not significantly but lets say a 1% improvement – that’s 8K lives in US. The drug is super safe akin to vitamin C & D and Tylenol. What was the noble lie for that? Without IVM more people would take the vaccine? Is that true? IF even true would those unvax really be hospitalized and died while taking IVM as prophylactic? Last blog discussed recently Brazil IVM study – people’s lives were impacted for this censorship/propaganda to thwart IVM for a noble lie?- https://www.cureus.com/articles/82162-ivermectin-prophylaxis-used-for-covid-19-a-citywide-prospective-observational-study-of-223128-subjects-using-propensity-score-matching )
Math in covid19mathblog.com – is the acronym borrowed from Andrew Yang – Make America Think Harder! – Censorship or telling the public to not listen to others does not Make America Think Harder. We present information sometimes with inference to what we think its says but ultimately you need to think about it – make hypothesis test your hypothesis and repeat….
Please present a better case to alleviate the concerns identified in the following articles –
Article suggesting kids should not be boosted – https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/why-are-we-boosting-kids
“If you are a vaccinated boy between the ages of 12 and 17, the graph shows the likelihood of being hospitalized with Covid is 0.3 out of 100,000. But if you are a boy in that same group and you get a booster, your likelihood of getting myocarditis is 10 out of 100,000. (Ninety-five percent of diagnosed vaccine-associated myocarditis cases result in hospitalization.)
In other words, if you are a young male who is vaccinated you have two choices. Option A: don’t get a booster and run a 0.3 in 100,000 risk of ending up in the hospital with Covid. Option B: get the booster and run a 10 in 100,000 risk of getting myocarditis.”
Article suggest the vaccine (mRNA) is potentially dangerous in the long-term and a call for pause to vaccination initiatives to investigate – Immediately one can see Peter McCullough is on it – one of the speakers on Joe Rogan – To not read this paper and not have an educated response but to tell everyone not to read it is CENSORSHIP – https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357994624_Innate_Immune_Suppression_by_SARS-CoV-2_mRNA_Vaccinations_The_role_of_G-quadruplexes_exosomes_and_microRNAs
“In this paper, we present the evidence that vaccination, unlike natural infection, induces a profound impairment in type I interferon signaling, which has diverse adverse consequences to human health. We explain the mechanism by which immune cells release into the circulation large quantities of exosomes containing spike protein along with critical microRNAs that induce a signaling response in recipient cells at distant sites. We also identify potential profound disturbances in regulatory control of protein synthesis and cancer surveillance. These disturbances are shown to have a potentially direct causal link to neurodegenerative disease, myocarditis, immune thrombocytopenia, Bell’s palsy, liver disease, impaired adaptive immunity, increased tumorigenesis, and DNA damage. We show evidence from adverse event reports in the VAERS database supporting our hypothesis. We believe a comprehensive risk/benefit assessment of the mRNA vaccines excludes them as positive contributors to public health, even in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic.”
“A medRxiv preprint has revealed a remarkable difference between the characteristics of the immune response to an infection with SARS-CoV-2 as compared with the immune response to an mRNA vaccine against COVID-19 [5]. Differential gene expression analysis of peripheral dendritic cells revealed a dramatic upregulation of both type I and type II interferons (IFNs) in COVID-19 patients, but not in vaccinees”
“In this paper we will be focusing extensively, though not exclusively, on vaccination-induced type I IFN suppression and the myriad downstream effects this has on the related signaling cascade.”
“The increasing evidence that the vaccines do little to control disease spread and that their effectiveness wanes over time make it even more imperative to assess the degree to which the vaccines might cause harm. That SARS-CoV-2 modified spike protein mRNA vaccinations have biological impacts is without question. Here we attempt to distinguish those impacts from natural infection, and establish a mechanistic framework linking those unique biological impacts to pathologies now associated with vaccination.”
“For successful mRNA vaccine design, the mRNA needs to be encapsulated in carefully constructed particles that can protect the RNA from degradation by RNA depolymerases. The mRNA vaccines are formulated as lipid nanoparticles containing cholesterol and phospholipids, with the modified mRNA complexed with a highly modified polyethylene glycol (PEG) lipid backbone to promote its early release from the endosome and to further protect it from degradation [63]. The host cell’s existing biological machinery is co-opted to facilitate the natural production of protein from the mRNA through endosomal uptake of a lipid particle [63]. A synthetic cationic lipid is added as well, since it has been shown experimentally to work as an adjuvant to draw immune cells to the injection site and to facilitate endosomal escape. De Beuckelaer et al. (2016) observed that “condensing mRNA into cationic lipoplexes increases the potency of the mRNA vaccine evoked T cell response by several orders of magnitude.” [60] Another important modification is that they replaced the code for two adjacent amino acids in the genome with codes for proline, which causes the spike protein to stay in a prefusion stabilized form [64]. The spike protein mRNA is further “humanized” with the addition of a guanine-methylated cap, 3’ and 5’ untranslated regions (UTRs) copied from those of human proteins, and finally a long poly(A) tail to further stabilize the RNA [65].”
“In the end, it is through utilization of nanolipids and sophisticated mRNA technology that the normal immune response to exogenous RNA is evaded in order to produce a strong antibody response against an exogenous RNA virus”
“If type I IFN signaling is impaired, as happens following vaccination but not following natural infection with SARS-CoV-2, CD8+ T cells’ ability to keep herpes in check would also be impaired. Might this be the mechanism at work in response to the vaccines? Shingles is an increasingly common condition caused by reactivation of latent herpes zoster viruses (HZV), which also causes chicken pox in childhood. In a systematic review, Katsikas et al., (2021) identified 91 cases of herpes zoster occurring an average of 5.8 days following mRNA vaccination”
“There are multiple additional case reports of herpes zoster reactivation following COVID-19 vaccination in the literature [138,139]. Llad´o et al. (2021) noted that 51 of 52 reports of reactivated herpes zoster infections happened following mRNA vaccination [140]. Herpes zoster itself also interferes with IFN-α signaling in infected cells both through interfering with STAT2 phosphorylation and through facilitating IRF9 degradation [141]. An additional case of viral reactivation is noteworthy as well. It involved an 82-year-old woman who had acquired a hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection in 2007. A strong increase in HCV load occurred a few days after vaccination with an mRNA Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, along with an appearance of jaundice. She died three weeks after vaccination from liver failure”
“It has been shown that the mRNA vaccines elicit primarily an immunoglobulin G (IgG) immune response, with lesser amounts of IgA induced [155], and even less IgM production”
“We mentioned earlier that one of the two microRNAs highly expressed in exosomes released by human cells exposed to the spike protein was miR-148a. miR-148a has been shown experimentally to suppress expression of a protein that plays a central role in regulating FcγRIIA expression on platelets”
“Thus, miR-148a, present in exosomes released by macrophages that are compelled by the vaccine to synthesize spike protein, acts to increase the risk of thrombocytopenia in response to immune complexes formed by spike antigen and IgG antibodies produced against spike.”
“Multiple case reports in the research literature describe liver damage following mRNA vaccines [165-167]. A plausible factor leading to these outcomes is the suppression of PPAR-α through downregulation of IRF9, and subsequently decreased sulfatide synthesis in the liver.”
“Guillain Barr´e Syndrome and Other Neurological Conditions GBS is an acute inflammatory demyelinating neuropathy associated with long-lasting morbidity and a significant risk of mortality [168]. The disease involves an autoimmune attack on the nerves associated with the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines. GBS is often associated with autoantibodies to sulfatide and other sphingolipids ”
“it is conceivable that spike also binds to sulfatide, and this might trigger an immune reaction to the spike-sulfatide complex.”
“A common cause of Bell’s palsy is reactivation of herpes simplex virus infection centered around the geniculate ganglion [198]. This, in turn, can be caused by disruption of type I IFN signaling.”
“if the mRNA vaccinations are leading to widespread dysregulation of oncogene controls, cell cycle regulation, and apoptosis, then VAERS reports should reflect an increase in reports of cancer, relative to the other vaccines. This is in fact what VAERS reports reflect, and dramatically so”
“, there were three times as many reports of breast cancer following a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than six times the number of reports of B-cell lymphoma. All but one of the cases of follicular lymphoma were associated with COVID-19 vaccines. Pancreatic carcinoma was more than three times as high. This cannot be explained by reference to a disproportionately large number of people receiving an mRNA vaccination in the past year compared to all other vaccinations. The total number of people receiving a non-COVID-19 vaccination is unknown, but over the 31 years history of reports VAERS contains it is unquestionably many orders of magnitude larger than the number receiving an mRNA vaccination in the past year. Overall, in the above table, twice as many cancer reports to VAERS are related to a COVID-19 vaccination compared to those related to all other vaccines. That, in our opinion, constitutes a signal in urgent need of investigation.”
“In the end, we are not exaggerating to say that billions of lives are at stake. We call on the public health institutions to demonstrate, with evidence, why the issues discussed in this paper are not relevant to public health, or to acknowledge that they are and to act accordingly. Until our public health institutions do what is right in this regard, we encourage all individuals to make their own health care decisions with this information as a contributing factor in those decisions.”
Notes long covid as a function of allergic reaction hence supports taking allergy and indigestion medicine. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971221007517
“Mast cell activation symptoms (MCAS) were increased in Long-COVID patients
- Long-COVID patients had similar severity of numerous MCAS symptoms
- Aberrant mast cells induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection is the likely triggering factor
- MC-directed therapy could help treat Long-COVID patients”
“MCA symptoms were increased in LC and mimicked the symptoms and severity reported by patients who have MCAS. Increased activation of aberrant mast cells induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection by various mechanisms may underlie part of the pathophysiology of LC, possibly suggesting routes to effective therapy.”
US deaths now approaching 900K….France and India continue to show increased confirmations. Russia fatality rate not too good 0.5%
US so much more vaccinated than last year – yet the deaths are approaching last years level
France transmission is unprecedented compared to last year – vaccination nearly 80% – deaths just slightly under last year
India surge – higher deaths than last year at this time.
Russia has higher deaths than last year along with a surging confirmation.
Japan surging
All this surge plus the video above makes me question are we testing for colds not covid? Fatality rates relatively low. Any idea how wide spread a common cold is? Sending test to each home should that reduce confirmation reporting?
CA and NY leaders in the US
NY deaths over last year
CA deaths are under last year but confirmations way above any time period
A big surge in confirmation in the west.
Still over 8K additional deaths per week relative to the baseline of 2014-2019
