Covid19mathblog.com

As noted very early on – our policy choices have consequences beyond covid. The worse part of consequences/collateral damage is if it is happening to the group who is less impacted by covid (young/healthy) because you have just traded their lives for someone who has lived most of their lives naturally – https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/22/health/alcohol-deaths-covid.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

“Among adults younger than 65, alcohol-related deaths actually outnumbered deaths from Covid-19 in 2020; some 74,408 Americans ages 16 to 64 died of alcohol-related causes, while 74,075 individuals under 65 died of Covid. And the rate of increase for alcohol-related deaths in 2020 — 25 percent — outpaced the rate of increase of deaths from all causes, which was 16.6 percent.

The alcohol-related deaths went up for everybody — men, women, as well as every ethnic and racial group. Deaths among men and women increased at about the same rate, but the absolute number of deaths among men was much higher.”

We know for certain that age and health is a big driver in Covid. We know behavior drives transmission and mask do work individually but mask mandates don’t work as the behavior to mandates overwhelm any benefit.

The best graphic still is from Canada which incorporates the vaccine jabs taken – the health – and age. This graphic clearly shows policy to restrict or thwart activities of healthy youth (<50,< 3 at risk conditions) was asking them to sacrifice for very little reward particularly if they took the vaccine too.

A truly great graphic is one that you still learn from even weeks later. The above graphic also points out the policy to promote health over vaccine is a lot more compelling. If you are in 60-69 age group and you took all 3 doses but are unhealthy your odds of hospitalization is 13X vs being very healthy! IF you didn’t take any vaccine and are very healthy female in the 60-69 category you have 26% better odds of not being hospitalized than the 3 dosed unhealthy 60-69! Below shows the comparison of the table. For Males this health message is much more important. As a young male you can reduce your odds of hospitalization from covid if you were very healthy by over 50% vs. taking 3 doses of vaccine! The only category that vaccines was better than being very healthy is a female over 80+

WHY not promote the healthy lifestyle – WHY not give choice to those that are healthy! Too many excuses to not promote this message – the biggest one I hear it takes a long time to get healthy – LOL we are going on 3 years!!! People rather force/coerce people to take a shot that they may not want in their body vs promoting a healthy lifestyle and rewarding those with healthy lifestyle the right to choose to take a vaccine?

In terms of fatalities we know under 50 and heathy fatalities are near 0. The table below doesn’t incorporate health but it certainly is obvious if you are healthy the fatality rates drop significantly as you won’t even be going to the hospital per graphic above.

People comparing life lost to wars is wrong and illogical given the wars are typically young men and women who have much life to live vs. the covid deaths. All deaths are sad but in reality of lifespans the younger ones are significantly more tragic.

Policies not considering age impacts are tragic. Personally I know many youths who have been impacted by covid policies way too much – and worse of all for little gain as noted above.

Chile surpasses the US in deaths over the last 7 days. Countries who have fared well are continuing to see a surge in Covid – Iceland, S. Korea, NZ, Germany etc….the positive news the fatality rates have been low – but deaths are climbing to much higher levels than the past few years.

Iceland confirmation surge at least slowing down – deaths surpassed both previous years combined

Germany confirmation continue to rise – the good news deaths are still below last years level

In South Korea confirmations hopefully slows down – deaths are still climbing surpassing the past two years

New Zealand in all its grand attempts to isolate is now seeing a huge surge in deaths – confirmations are leveling off

Suspect on the China stats but it is now showing a leveling off of confirmations and deaths

US confirmations and deaths continue to be below last years levels.

Interesting data to show 0 confirmation for FL but they do lead the death count with CA leading the confirmation count

Hot spots for transmissions are in NV

Even with Covid deaths in US down – we are still producing more deaths than usual on a weekly basis

Covid Winter 2021/2022 coming to an end – unfortunately the improvement on deaths from previous year is not as significant as forecasted. Evolution of covid to be more transmissible was probably lacking along with the optimism for the vaccine to reduce fatalities. All the vaccine push (mandates, vitriol to the unvaccinated) and mask mandates only improved deaths by under 20% from the previous winter that had no vaccine!