Covid 6/11/20

WEAR a MASK – even if it’s a bandana – this is what I wear since I am in TX! The risk/reward (risk=inconvenience) …reward not getting sick or getting someone else sick….

Here is the paper being cited in many articles but not linked to for some reason – https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376

It is all about reducing viral load – you don’t have to go to zero to do well for your body.

“information on the size of the infectious dose for SARS-CoV-2 is lacking, but research on SARS-CoV (the 2003 virus) showed that between 43 and 280 individual virus particles had to enter the human body in order to start an infection [60]. Even home-made masks, washed in soapy water after each use, therefore, should reduce fomite build-up and droplet-mediated airborne transmission.”

“The natural mechanics of filtration are that larger droplets are captured more effectively. So, it can safely be assumed that droplets in the 1 µm plus range will be almost completely eliminated by such an informally made mask. This is very important because a 2 µm droplet has a thousand times the mass of a 200 nm droplet, and a 20 µm droplet has a million times the mass of a 200 nm droplet, the virus load being proportional to the mass. The larger the droplets, the more important it is to capture them, and even a home-made mask will do this very well. There are also experimental data, for instance, that show that home-made facemasks consisting of one facial tissue (inner layer on the face) and two kitchen paper towels as the outer layers achieved over 90% of the function of surgical mask in terms of filtration of 20–200 nm droplets [25]. These facemasks are also disposable, so would clearly provide a pragmatic solution to the problem, and there are many sites now on social media that provide clear instructions on facemask making and safe use.”

“Our analysis indicates that a high proportion of the population would need to wear facemasks to achieve reasonable impact of the intervention. In Hong Kong, 99% of survey respondents reported wearing facemasks when outside of their home”

“Lock-down periods alone do not prevent the occurrence of secondary and tertiary waves of the pandemic occurring and these may be larger than the initial wave”

“If lock-down periods are combined with 100% adoption of facemask use by the public, the initial disease progress peak is dramatically flattened and delayed and subsequent waves are prevented”

“In summary, our modelling analyses provide support for the immediate, universal adoption of facemasks by the public, similar to what has been done in Taiwan, for example, where production will soon reach 13 million facemasks daily, with well-developed plans for N95 respirator production in the pipeline [68]. Our analyses indicate that actions to facilitate this in the UK should include clear instructions on the fabrication and safe use of home-made masks, as well as accompanying governmental policies to increase swiftly the availability of medical standard surgical, or N95 respirators, to the public.”

More is done to find our who is at risk – https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-study/south-korean-doctors-find-risk-factors-for-severe-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23I07R

“In a paper published by the Journal of Korean Medical Science on June 2, Ahn and other South Korean doctors wrote that diabetes, high body temperature, low oxygen saturation and pre-existing cardiac injury were shown to be the prognostic factors for severe COVID-19.”

“The coronavirus patients with at least three of the four prognostic factors developed severe conditions, Professor Ahn said.”

Adding on from our recent papers don’t be a balding male, type A blood, high cholesterol both internally and diet, diabetic, have a high body temp, existing cardiac issue….and you will be good.

Not a good day for Brazil and Mexico…US under 1K

CA leading death at 109. Confirmations are growing and will likely be tied to opening – but there is also a likely growth IF the amount infected is much larger than everyone thinks so confirmation perhaps not the best metric to watch.

Death/Confirmed perhaps indicate the better stat of public awareness for those who are suspect of fatality from Covid as opening up the economy will likely not be able to be avoided.

Right now most states are flat other than Georgia, NY

Jefferson County TX is sticking out in our county watch – looks like coming from prison – https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/10/texas-reports-largest-single-day-increase-coronavirus-cases/

“Just over 21% of the new cases were reported in Jefferson County, which reported 537 new cases Tuesday, nearly doubling its previous total.

Asked about the cause of the increase, DSHS spokesperson Chris Van Deusen pointed to Jefferson County’s three state prison units.

Most of the new cases were "due to a change in how the local health department is reporting" cases from the prisons, he said.”

Brazil and Mexico continue to rise. Sweden also is showing a big ramp of recent.