Ignorance is bliss.
Bad news day….
I reached out to the team maintaining the Texas data site to understand the confirmation.
So we would only report one positive per person, and do not have any documented cases of reinfection in the state. However, one person could be responsible for multiple negative tests.
Matt
Matt Turner, PhD, MPH
Agency Analytics Unit
Center for Health Statistics
DSHS
This makes the data even worse as the infection rate is likely higher since multiple negative test.
This study is confirming what the data has been saying and seems to show covid-19 is a force to be reckon with – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-1806_article
“our findings suggest retained infectivity and virion integrity for up to 16 hours in respirable-sized aerosols.”
The only positive light perhaps is –
“No ultraviolet light source was used within the cavity of the drum during suspensions.”
Now they need to run it with UV to prove UV install is a mechanical solution to reduce viral load – I am quite positive it will show that.
Well the Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro now has tested positive – https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/07/888137097/brazilian-president-jair-bolsonaro-tests-positive-for-coronavirus
Well he better hope HCQ treatment will work for him. It is a shame the anti-mask stance.
Study after study – along with just plain LOGIC is not working….VIRAL LOAD is key – reduce viral load reduce chance to getting it….put something in front of your inhalation it will reduce viral load perhaps not much but it WILL….it WILL also reduce viral load you introduce into the environment. AT least 1 in 3 are asymptomatic so you CAN be perfectly healthy and be a carrier AND it can sustain for MONTHS (not highly probable – but documented). As they said in the Hunger Games – “Happy Hunger Games, and may the odds be ever in your favor.” If you put the mask on it will push the odds to your favor for you and your love ones. This thing is not mainly spreading through strangers as you don’t socialize with strangers that long. Ventilate your home with fresh air. Clear the air in your home. Dilution is the solution to pollution! Exercise – eat healthy – push the odd in your favor.
I had to search for some good news – https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200707/Asthma-inhalers-being-trialed-for-treatment-of-COVID-19.aspx
“Studies have shown that some corticosteroids, such as dexamethasone, could reduce the inflammation of the respiratory tract in these patients and benefit them by alleviating the symptoms of severe disease.
Researchers in this new trial are studying if the steroid inhalers used for reducing the exacerbations of asthma could be useful for patients with early COVID-19 and reduce their risk of severe disease.”
“Lead researcher on this team Dan Nicolau, an associate professor at QUT, explained that the asthmatics and those with chronic lung disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were on regular inhaler therapy with corticosteroids, were found to have a lesser risk of severe illness in the early phase of the pandemic. He said that this was paradoxical because those with long term lung disease were initially considered to be at a higher risk of a respiratory viral infection such as SARS-CoV-2”
“If successful, Budesonide inhaler therapy could be a low cost and readily available therapy for early COVID-19 patients. It would reduce their risk of getting severe respiratory complications, Nicolau said.”
Well back to large death numbers Brazil 1254 US 1195
New leaderboard in death for US – Illinois 247. Same top 3 confirmations state CA, TX, and FL
Same counties LA, Maricopa, Harris, and Miami-Dade leading confirmation. 210 IL death reported yesterday were unassigned to a county – perhaps revision or data issue.
Death are still slow relative to the confirmation rates in these counties.
Another 1535 in Harris county – ICU beds availability decline 36 to 118 Hospitalized went up 43 2656….43/1535=3% going to hospital per confirmed. Beds will be filled testing another 2121/.03/.135(positivity rate)=524K. ICU beds are the bigger constraint.
Bad News chart – scary ramp in ICU beds for Covid
Zoom up and linear regression – beds will fill in a week – 874 max bed per available 118
IF this is the case then in a week we should see an increase in deaths as ICU beds fill and then decision to put in ICU will be more judicious which would likely lead to deaths unless over prescribing ICU right now.
Its just the data here – I hate to be the bearer of this news. Lets hope something is wrong with the data.
